N.KOREA'S TEST WASNT OLD 'SILKWORM', BUT ANGOL-1 LONG- RANGE MISSILE!!(MORE TROUBLE EXPECTED)

Dong-a Ilbo Newspaper (English) ^ | 28 February 2003 | Dong-a Ilbo Newspaper (English)

[AmericanInTokyo]

Estimates I have heard on the Angol-1 missile are nearly 260 miles, not 100 miles.

Despite the claim by the Japanese government, which is positive at best, it is true that missile testing activities are being put underground and a series of awnings are also being constructed in order to avoid detection (as mentioned in the article).

I personally expect a Taepodong-2 test launch within a month, as a threatening action against Japan as well as pressure on the USA to enter talks bilaterally with North Korea.

[Steel Wolf]

The first Angol-1 apparently misfired, and the second didn't cover a whole lot of ground, but it is an indication that they are working to improve their ballistic missile technology.

I agree with your assessment of an imminent Taepodong 2 launch. Kim is likely going to have it conincide with certain global events, to maximize the scare factor and shock value. His intent is to keep turning up the pressure, and he certainly is. This all has the potential to spiral out of control.

[judicial meanz]

Maybe its coming from the the Hagap underground facilty in the Myohang Mountain range in North Korea?

If so I have satellite pictures bookmarked of that site too, but they are about 6 months old:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/myohyang-imagery.htm

[AmericanInTokyo]

I believe there is still some debate as to precisely where "Hagap" is

For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I believe there is still some debate as to precisely where "Hagap" is.

For any launch on Japan as a test or an actual attack, it is likely to come from one of two locations in Hwadae County, along the northeast coast of the DPRK, in Hamgyonbuk-do Province, IMHO. However, they know that we know where a lot of their stuff is, so they could launch from an area we had not considered.

[CatoRenasci]

The substance of this was in Gertz' article in yesterday's Washington Times. Good to see it getting press in Japan. Is this also being covered in the Japanese-language press?

[hchutch]

Too bad we can't get an Airborne Laser over there for a test to coincide with the NK Taepo-dong 2 launch...

Suppose the missile launched and blew up in boost-phase? :)

[AmericanInTokyo]

The Japanese are slow on this one. They are basically (like the Sankei News) picking it up from Korean newspaper sources (like Hankook Ilbo). The Korean TV today (based on NYT) is also reporting specific stuff that I don't even feel comfortable talking about here regarding the Korean Peninsula next summer.

[Poohbah]

Estimates I have heard on the Angol-1 missile are nearly 260 miles, not 100 miles.

Great. Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?

OK, class...can anyone tell me why the US Navy got rid of the Tomahawk Antiship Missile (TASM), despite keeping the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) variant?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

The NK's do little that's not approved by the PRC.

[Jim Noble]

I wonder if China wants to use Iraq and DPRK to "preview" their antiship technology in a deniable way.

Keep an eye on Iran. They have invested very heavily in countership missiles, and there are now many ultra-high value targets in their neighborhood...

[hchutch]

*raises hand*

OTH target problems?

[Jim Noble]

>>Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?<<

Fraternal technical assistance?

[AmericanInTokyo]

Don't count it out of the scenario planning here.

The DPRK have a whole merchant marine and fishing boat force which is essentially part of the Directorate of Espionage from the Korean Workers Party. Any of these ships, or 'trawlers', outfitted with considerable comm equipment, could easily surveil American warship activity in the Sea of Japan...and transmit same, including coordinates, to North Korea, for the appropriate attack by their forces.

[Poohbah]

>>Anyone care to explain how they're going to FIND US ships at 260 miles?<<<

Fraternal technical assistance?

From who, please?

[CatoRenasci]

reply privately please if you'd rather, but I'm most curious!

[AmericanInTokyo]

accuracy from that distance of course would be an issue.

always better to err on the side of 'they can eventually do', rather than 'than probably never can'.

[Steel Wolf]

I can't see Iran trying to sink a U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf when they'll soon have the U.S. Army on both sides of their border. That's just not smart.

The conspiracty theorist in me says that would be effective, if timed to coincide with attacks from Iraq and North Korea, but the odds of that happening are basically nil. Tha would make a great movie, though.

[Poohbah]

Very good!

During the Outlaw Shark series of exercises in the Mediterranean, the simulated Tomahawks wound up hitting friendly merchies and a fleet oiler. And this was with OTH-T data that was orders of magnitude better than what the ChiComs or North Korea would have.

[Poohbah]

The DPRK have a whole merchant marine and fishing boat force which is essentially part of the Directorate of Espionage from the Korean Workers Party. Any of these ships, or 'trawlers', outfitted with considerable comm equipment, could easily surveil American warship activity in the Sea of Japan...and transmit same, including coordinates, to North Korea, for the appropriate attack by their forces.

Great. Now all they gotta do is get the missile to actually fly into a hostile ship.

We routinely lit up friendly ships during OTH-T exercises, and we had even more reliable data than the DPRK trawler fleet could develop.

BTW, this trick would work only if the first strike of the war is at sea and not on land--because once the balloon goes up, the DPRK's merchie fleet isn't going to be able to phone home, and they're going to get boarded/sunk in the first few minutes of hostilities.