[Magnum44]

Numbers that matter include cost. They also include reliability, and some measure of complexity (or simplicity), as well as lift capability (throw weight). Costs come down in mass production. The AF and Boeing have teamed to build a one stop production factory for Delta that takes Henry Fords idea of mass production to the next dimension. Unfortunately, customers outside of DoD are rare these days, so until the need for launchers goes up, real cost savings cant be realized. But the front end costs have been already been laid out. We are well positioned for unmanned access to space. Its the manned side that we fall dreadfully short on.

[hopespringseternal]

Unfortunately, customers outside of DoD are rare these days,

What I keep hearing from so many bureaucrats is that launch costs are stuck where they are for the forseeable future because of technical challenges.

If that is the case, then manned space will continue to be a fool's errand. As things currently sit, every aspect of manned space amounts to little more than pork barrel spending and should be stopped immediately. Of course, because it is pork it has far more staying power than any legitimate expenditure.

But I don't believe the bureaucrats and I have talked with plenty of engineers who don't either. They tell me the problem of lowering launch costs isn't technical so much as political and economic. The history is long and it is out there for anyone who is intellectually honest enough to pursue it, so I won't belabor the point by repeating it here.

Suffice to say that the status quo marches on and of every dollar spent on space ninety cents represents pork or waste. In that environment, hell can freeze over and your only customer will still be government.