Wheeeeeeeee!
Posted on 02/21/2003 6:17:12 PM PST by Chemist_Geek
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2003
...A STRONG WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
.A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH EASTERN OHIO SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THIS TRACK...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE RECENT WARM SPELL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...IT APPEARS ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE GENERATED TO PRODUCE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF EIGHT MILE ROAD. AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIX TO TWELVE INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF M 59...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF HOWELL...PONTIAC...AND PORT HURON. ANY SLOWER CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL PRODUCE LESSER AMOUNTS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE... BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS... SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
MIZ075-076-082-083-220400-
LENAWEE MI-MONROE MI-WASHTENAW MI-WAYNE MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONROE...DOWNTOWN DETROIT...ANN ARBOR...ADRIAN...ROMULUS AND DUNDEE
400 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2003
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOONTIME SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN OR BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES. AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS IF THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TAKES LONGER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
$$
SF/BGM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-221100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
420 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 400 PM.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TEXAS TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL PATH OF THE STORM TO REQUIRE CONTINUED MONITORING OF FORECAST UPDATES...WITH THE PATTERN OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLY BEING ADJUSTED NORTH OR SOUTH WITH TIME.
ALSO...DUE TO THIS SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.
ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS LATTER STORM WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
MANN
Wheeeeeeeee!
It's that Global Warming Global Climate Change, don'tch'know? Anyways, it's all Bush's fault. (/loony-peacenik-imitation)
Over here in the southeast, we get a flake or two every now and then. Nothing like Up North, where "eight-to-twelve" is looked at with disappointment.
Seriously, it's the rain and freezing rain which this storm is expected to start out with that has got me concerned. Ice is not fun, for flying, for driving, or even for sitting on power and telephone lines and tree limbs over said lines.
I'm hoping it holds off until after I get my PC repair runs done. This inclement weather slows down my repair time.
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY BE ON THE WAY...
A VERY BUSY AFTERNOON HERE AS 12Z MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
POTENT UPR SYSTEM NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD OUR DECEMBER 2000 TOTALS. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CROSS SECTIONS HERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE DTHETA/DZ WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE MAX OMEGA FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL...MORE ON THIS IN A BIT.
TONIGHT...
LATEST VISIBLE SAT PIXS SHOW CI/CS BEGINNING TO HEAD AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER WITH AMPLE CLEARING UPSTREAM. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S SO WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP OFF THE TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTING NORTHWARD. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL WEAKEN BUT SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL EMPHASIZE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM LOWER ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT.
OKAY...HERE IS WHERE ALL OF THE ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE UKMET/GEM THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE GFS FURTHEST EAST (FROM NEAR TOL TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER RESPECTFULLY). THIS HAS FOLLOWED THE TREND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED WITH DPROG/DT OF ETA/GFS/NGM. THE ETA...WHILE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICALLY...CONTINUES TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...ITS QPF FIELD LOOKS BETTER ALTHOUGH SFC TRACK REMAINS THE HUGE ISSUE. ITS TRACK WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO LOW AND IN THE MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY WARMING...ESPECIALLY FROM DTW-ARB SOUTH. HERE THE SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HINTING AT RAIN/SNOW. FZRA LOOKS TO MINIMAL AS WE DO NOT HAVE A COLD AND DRY CONVEYOR BELT FROM A SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL REMOVE FROM GRIDS. CROSS SECTIONS NICELY SHOW NOT ONLY THE MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTH...THE 2D FGEN FORCING ABOVE 700MB HELPING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...WITH OMEGA FIELDS CLIMBING TOWARD 20 MICROBARS/SECOND! WITH THIS AMOUNT OF FORCING EXPECTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF 850/700 LOW AND AVERAGE SFC LOW FORECAST TRACK...ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 500MB (VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE EPV/S) COULD LEAD TOWARD SOME THUNDER-SNOW AROUND 21Z. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES (3-4 G/KG) AND GARCIA ISENTROPIC METHOD SUPPORT 4-8 INCHES CWA-WIDE (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST)...HOWEVER...IF THE ABOVE MENTION PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH 500-700 DEFORMATION AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH A FOOT. TO FURTHER ENHANCE THIS WOULD BE THE OLD MAGIC CHART WITH THE -3/-5C @ 850 MBS BISECTING OUR CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENTS OF 10-12 MBS.
AS 985MB LOW TRACKS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 1030MB HIGH IN NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP WITH A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING AFTER 21Z AND ENDING TOWARD 03Z. THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...THEN AGAIN MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL SEVERAL DAYS AGO. NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF FZRA/SNOW.
AGAIN...THANK YOU FOR THE GREAT COORD GRR...IWX...CLE...APX AND HPC.
.DTX...WINTER STORM WATCH...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ENTIRE CWA.
GALE WARNING SOUTHERN 2/3RDS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
BGM
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE)
DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!
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