Wheeeeeeeee!
Posted on 02/21/2003 6:17:12 PM PST by Chemist_Geek
Wheeeeeeeee!
It's that Global Warming Global Climate Change, don'tch'know? Anyways, it's all Bush's fault. (/loony-peacenik-imitation)
Over here in the southeast, we get a flake or two every now and then. Nothing like Up North, where "eight-to-twelve" is looked at with disappointment.
Seriously, it's the rain and freezing rain which this storm is expected to start out with that has got me concerned. Ice is not fun, for flying, for driving, or even for sitting on power and telephone lines and tree limbs over said lines.
I'm hoping it holds off until after I get my PC repair runs done. This inclement weather slows down my repair time.
...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY BE ON THE WAY...
A VERY BUSY AFTERNOON HERE AS 12Z MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
POTENT UPR SYSTEM NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD OUR DECEMBER 2000 TOTALS. A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CROSS SECTIONS HERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE DTHETA/DZ WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE MAX OMEGA FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL...MORE ON THIS IN A BIT.
TONIGHT...
LATEST VISIBLE SAT PIXS SHOW CI/CS BEGINNING TO HEAD AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER WITH AMPLE CLEARING UPSTREAM. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S SO WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP OFF THE TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ADVECTING NORTHWARD. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL WEAKEN BUT SLIP SOUTH TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL EMPHASIZE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM LOWER ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT.
OKAY...HERE IS WHERE ALL OF THE ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE UKMET/GEM THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE GFS FURTHEST EAST (FROM NEAR TOL TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER RESPECTFULLY). THIS HAS FOLLOWED THE TREND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED WITH DPROG/DT OF ETA/GFS/NGM. THE ETA...WHILE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICALLY...CONTINUES TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...ITS QPF FIELD LOOKS BETTER ALTHOUGH SFC TRACK REMAINS THE HUGE ISSUE. ITS TRACK WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO LOW AND IN THE MID LEVELS SLIGHTLY WARMING...ESPECIALLY FROM DTW-ARB SOUTH. HERE THE SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HINTING AT RAIN/SNOW. FZRA LOOKS TO MINIMAL AS WE DO NOT HAVE A COLD AND DRY CONVEYOR BELT FROM A SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL REMOVE FROM GRIDS. CROSS SECTIONS NICELY SHOW NOT ONLY THE MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVANCING NORTH...THE 2D FGEN FORCING ABOVE 700MB HELPING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...WITH OMEGA FIELDS CLIMBING TOWARD 20 MICROBARS/SECOND! WITH THIS AMOUNT OF FORCING EXPECTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF 850/700 LOW AND AVERAGE SFC LOW FORECAST TRACK...ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 500MB (VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE EPV/S) COULD LEAD TOWARD SOME THUNDER-SNOW AROUND 21Z. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES (3-4 G/KG) AND GARCIA ISENTROPIC METHOD SUPPORT 4-8 INCHES CWA-WIDE (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST)...HOWEVER...IF THE ABOVE MENTION PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH 500-700 DEFORMATION AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA...SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH A FOOT. TO FURTHER ENHANCE THIS WOULD BE THE OLD MAGIC CHART WITH THE -3/-5C @ 850 MBS BISECTING OUR CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENTS OF 10-12 MBS.
AS 985MB LOW TRACKS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND 1030MB HIGH IN NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP WITH A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND EXPECTED. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING AFTER 21Z AND ENDING TOWARD 03Z. THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...THEN AGAIN MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL SEVERAL DAYS AGO. NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF FZRA/SNOW.
AGAIN...THANK YOU FOR THE GREAT COORD GRR...IWX...CLE...APX AND HPC.
.DTX...WINTER STORM WATCH...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ENTIRE CWA.
GALE WARNING SOUTHERN 2/3RDS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
BGM
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE)
DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.