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The only threat I see the PRC posing to Taiwan is that of a submarine blockade, similar to what the Germans attempted in World War I and World War II. In a sense, it is really the only way they can seize Taiwan while maintaining the infrastructure in Taiwan.

They have a LOT of diesel-electric subs, and even an old diesel-electric sub can put a merchant vessel on the bottom, while they are acquiring Kilos from the Russians and they are still building the Song-class SSKs. This is in addition to anywhere from 38 (World Navies Today at http://hazegray.org/worldnav/china/submar.htm has that figure) to 70 Romeo-class subs (according to my copy - 1995 - of "Combat Fleets of the World") and close to 20 Ming-class subs (essentially a copy of the Rome).

The sheer numbers would make breaking such a blockade difficult. We'd be badly outnumbered, and possibly fighting these battles within range of hostile air forces. It could be a very nasty re-fighting of the Battle of the Atlantic around Formosa and the Phillipines.

A colleague of mine, who was a jump master and later an officer of the 82nd Airborne, had as part of his assignments the assessment of the capacities of similar units in the armies of other nations. It is his conclusion which I relay.
The Chinese do not now have either sufficient paratroopers or sufficient planes to take the airports and other key facillities on Taiwan in a lightning strike, and then hold them while tens of thousands of troops pour in on standard transport planes. China does not have that capacity now, even with the very bad assumption that all its paratrooper planes would get across the Taiwan Strait unmolested.
China is prepared to attack Taiwan with missiles, which would guarantee an American counterattack with conventional warhead missiles. But China does not have the capacity to put a winning number of boots on the ground in Taiwan, either by air or sea. In short, China could play out its version of a Bay of Pigs humiliation, but that's it.

Congressman Billybob

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