Washington/Batimore Heavy Snow Forecast...

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington ^ | February 14, 2003

[John H K]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 445 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SAT...

ROUND ONE OF THIS WEEKEND'S TWO PART WINTER STORM HITS TONIGHT THRU LATE SAT. ACROSS THE FAR N ZONES AND MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH THRU THE PERIOD THAT ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. IN THE N SHEN VALLEY...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND DC AND S BALT AREAS...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN DAWN AND 8 AM. MID MORNING SAT...THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...PRIMARILY RAIN IN EXPECTED WITH A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW/OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW SOMETIME SAT AFT FROM N TO S. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE N WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LOWEST IN THE S WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF MIX WILL OCCUR. RANGE FOR BOTH PERIODS...2 TO 6 INCHES.

MMARGRAF

LONG TERM (SAT NITE-FRI)

ETA/GFS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATL STATES. ETA CLOSES OFF A MID-LVL CENTER BY 06Z MON NEAR PITTSBURG WHILE GFS DOES NOT. PER QPFHSD WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA GIVEN IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM UKMET AND CANADIAN.

OCASSIONAL -SN EARLY SAT NITE WILL BECOME HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS WAA PATTERN STRENGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROF/HEIGHT FALLS. 12Z ETA SHOWING IMPRESSIVE WAA PATTERN ON SUN WITH STG H85 EASTERLY JET OF 50 KTS FEEDING ATL MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY JUICY AIR MASS. FCST PW FIELDS ARE OVR 0.8 INS OVR MOST OF THE CWA WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 1.0 IN OVR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ATMOS FROM TOP TO BOTTOM SUPPORTS MOSTLY SNOW ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SLEET COULD GET MIXED IN WITH THE SN BETWEEN 00Z SUN-06Z SUN OVR FAR SRN MD/SPOTSYLVANIA/CHO. ADDED IP TO THOSE AREAS TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

TEMPS ON SUN WILL HOVER AROUND 20 DEGS MOST OF THE DAY WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. GIVEN STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT (H85 50-KT JET)...STRONG 700-500 OMEGAS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND FVRBL LFQ JET DYNAMICS OF A 100-KT JET SUGGEST HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUN. EXTENDED PRECIP A LITTLE BIT LONGER INTO MIDDAY MON AS PER SLOWER TREND IN THE MODELS. ETA GIVING ALMOST 2.0 INS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH GFS ALMOST HALF OF THAT. BY THE TIME EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE MOST SIG SNOW EVENT IN THE WASHINGTON AREA SINCE EARLY JAN 1996. 10 INS OF SNOW WILL BE A VERY...VERY CONSERVATIVE SNOW TOTAL FOR THE AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...TRENDED TEMPS COLDER GIVEN EXPECTED SNOWPACK. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE NEXT FRI. LONG WAYS OUT FROM NOW KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.

ROSA

[don-o]

Actually, forecasts have gradually, and continuously, been getting more and more accurate. This can be shown statistically.

Then, why is it that, off the predictions, for this winter alone, in East Tennessee, at least five times, schools have closed early or opened late or cancelled, while Mom and Dad went to work? I am not talking about the mountain counties in Upper East Tennessee, but the valley areas, where the roads are well maintained.

I think it has something to do with fear of lawsuit.

[CobaltBlue]

Hi Rose - I live in Northern VA, just outside the Beltway, which is DC metro. No snow falling at the moment, although there is still snow on the grass from earlier in the week -- maybe two-three inches in the shade -- but none on the roads or sidewalks.

Everybody already cleaned out the stores over the past few days, due to the warning that terrorists might attack. Yesterday the stores were insane. All bottled water is sold out. People already stocked up on canned food, dried food, cat food, dog food, and even the pharmacies had long lines as people filled up necessary prescriptions.

I am sending my husband and kids out to the video store. Other than that, we've already stocked up with several days worth of everything, including flashlights, batteries, candles, wood for the fireplace, you name it.

Doing our bit for the economy, don't you know.;^)

[rwfromkansas]

I have pretty much given up on winter this year......it has been so incredibly dry and dull. I have seen 6 inches of snow so far when the normal seasonal total is around 20 inches. Considering the way things have been, to meet that normal, we will have to see a storm with 14 inches of snow or a bunch of little storms coming right after another. I would be surprised if that happens though. Spring will be here pretty soon. I usually see at least one storm with 8 inches or so (that is really all I need to consider it a really great snowstorm; 4 inches is all I need to consider it a satisfactory storm). This year, the biggest snow was 3 inches. Boring!!!! This winter may be worst than last year, and that's saying something.

At least I should start seeing severe storms starting in mid-March.

[Diana Rose]

I'm in ET and it is rainy and so cold. I think I would rather have snow.

[ForOurFuture]

Looks big, green, and scary from here in Pasadena, Maryland. Baltimore news says we'll get at least 1'. Damn the luck that it falls on a 3-day weekend.

[Textide]

6-8" on the ground with 3-4" falling per hour now. The DC news guys are freaking. All the correspondents are at various places, all with sticks as measuring devices and yelling into the microphone.

[Miss Marple]

I think I will turn on the TV and see what they are showing on Fox. Here in Indiana we got about 3 " although it's snowing again now.

[Textide]

Depending on where you are in Indiana, looks like you have more on the way.

[Miss Marple]

I am smack dab in the middle...Indianapolis area.

What is that big thing up in Canada? Is that heading towards us? Yikes!

[Movemout]

I'm sitting here listening to a radio announcer saying that we have 5-10 inches down and may get over a foot. BS. I can look out my library window and see over a foot right now and we are just geting started. I love it and I am mighty glad that I have fireplaces and a steep roof.

[Atlantian]

What's happening at the D.C. airports? I have friends up there who need to fly back to Atlanta today.

[Textide]

Local news just said that Dulles will have only one runway in operation, and to expect delays. Didn't hear anything about Reagan National.

Your best bet would be to check the airline's website I guess.

[Elkiejg]

Yesterday my son in MD (just north of Baltimore) said they were no longer predicting how many inches of snow to expect - it was how many FEET!! We were to fly to BWI Sat. morning for a family "do" - decided to stay in warm, sunny central FL instead. This looks like the '96 blizzard where we got snowed in in MD for 4 days!

[Ligeia]

Gee, your map looks like D.C. is the target of a bullseye once again. Even my church is cancelled. Sure is a beautiful snow. I can't wait to go for a drive. Fun!

[leadpenny]

I'm probably 15 miles (as the crow flies) south of both airports. This is a fine grain, heavy kind of snow. If I were planning travel today, I wouldn't plan travel.

[this_ol_patriot]

I'm in PA now, and we're gonna get it...

Yeppers the storm moved up I'm in the 12+ range now. Last night we were going to get zip-zilch-nada, this is an improvement.

[leadpenny]

Morning. It reminds me of the Feb 79 2-footer we had.

[Textide]

I can't wait to go for a drive. Fun! Hehe. Somebody should've told me that rear-wheel drive vehicle's don't "perform" so well on snow. The car turns into an expensive sled on the slightest hill.

[Ligeia]

Ain't it fun? I once had cars that couldn't make it in the snow. Even front-wheel drive does okay. I don't like feeling stranded so I joined the SUV crowd of evildoers! I feel like Lewis & Clark or something.

[Ligeia]

Good morning. I'm trying to remember '79 without much success. I know I remember a blizzard in '66 when we built snow forts in the 8' drifts up beside the house. Ah, those were the days...