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To: guaguanco
"I think the republicans will control the house, senate and white house for the forseeable future! Maybe 20 years or so. What's to stop them? They're pushing all the right buttons and the democrat traitors are hated throughout the land. A glorious time for the USA!!!"

They will be stopped by the same things that have stopped them before. These are, in rough order of likelyhood:

A. Revolt of the Base. This got Bush 1 out of office when conservatives felt there was nothing in it for them. While Bush2 is unlikely to make the same mistake other R's very well may. Souter, the broken tax pledge, the assault weapons import ban .. all of these were Bush1 issues that led to his demise. Let's put up some litmus tests for Bush2 and the Rs on issues that resonate with the base.

Continue and increase tax cuts.
Reduce the size of FedGov by elimination of depts.
Sunseting of gun laws, no new gun laws, repeal of gun laws.
Appoint conservative judges
End affirmative action as a federal program
Prosectue Illegal Immigration
Reduce legal immigration

B. Out of Control Spending .. remember this was the issue that got Clinton into office. Democrats will continue to claim to be "the party of fiscal responsibility". They are, at least, willing to tax us to pay for their redistributionist schemes. The R's lack the balls to actually cut and gut programs, but are required to oppose tax increases, thus resulting in deficits.

C. Third party insurgencey (probably trumped up by leftists) splits the Conservative Base.
Remember it was Ross Perot who gave Clinton his first term plurality win. The failure of "Rs" to addresss items in "A" opens the door. The IMMIGRATION ISSUE is the biggest disconnect between the more Globalist R party of D.C. and the base, and could provide all the room needed for a Conservative third party to split the vote.

D. Lack of attractive candidates. Bob Dole may be gone buy "Liddy" is back, now with a Senate seat. Who's on deck for '08. Certainly another Bush or Dole is not going to cut it. Elections are won in part on this sick criteria of personality as imagined via TV. Typically Dems are better at this. Like it or not Hillary appeals to a lot of women, who are 50+% of the electorate.

E. War weariness. People may get tired of being constantly under "Orange Alert" and vote for a candidate offering a less muscular foreign policy, much as they did with Jimmy Carter in 1976. This candidate is unlikely to be a Republican.

F. Scandal. Cost Nixon, Ford and Gore the election. Hurt badly both Carter and Bush1 (Reagan's Iran Contra). Obviously the opposition is trying hard to find, invent, create, or trap those in power into a scandal. This effects entire parties, not just the Pres. vis: Cliton and Dems post 1994.

G. Death Has not effected the Presidency since Kennedy, but historically has changed the course of history rather more than since 1965.

Those are some of the reasons I can think of why I would not consider two years of Bush a predetermined forerunner to 20 years of Republican rule.

20 posted on 02/08/2003 12:47:09 PM PST by Jack Black
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To: Jack Black
Great analysis. Let me pile on:

H. Becoming More Moderate In spite of what Norquist thinks, today's GOP has grown more squishy soft than ever. Old conservative lions like Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm are gone. Who knows how long Dick Cheney will still be in the loop? The conservatives are being phased out for the likes of Liddy Dole, Lindsey Graham and Norm Coleman. Squish, squish, squish, ooh, let's not offend anybody....

Frankly, we need some guys that are willing to get in the faces of the liberals and the media. Outside of Rumsfeld, who's doing that now?

I. The Stupid Party The track record of Republicans is that their best intentions wither to a weak final solution or they just table the whole idea. Note the watering down or elimination of the tax cut, environmental bills, ANWR, etc. Democrats fight like hell to get what they want even when they are dead wrong. Republicans don't. Until they act like leaders, they'll never get beyond what the most moderate RINO will sign off to.

J. Our Changing Electorate Maybe you haven't noticed but our cities and towns are getting darker and darker skinned and it has nothing to do with tanning salons. Right now, the vast majority of these (other than Asians and Cubans) track Democrat. Until this trend changes significantly, and particularly while they try so hard to pander to it, the GOP will always be in peril.

K. Vote Fraud We all know why Tim Johnson got re-elected. Norquist notes the four Democrat senators from North and South Dakota, even though they vote GOP in presidential races. Why do you think that is, Grover? Could it possibly be that the Democrats have enough fraud going on to win the close elections, particularly with incumbancy? We got plenty of lessons in this decade alone with the Gore/Florida fiasco, the Torricelli gambit, the Wellstone Funerally, the Gray Davis miracle and the Siegleman standoff to know Democrats will do whatever it takes to win elections. The GOP better not aim for a 51% victory. They'd lose every time.

35 posted on 02/08/2003 1:28:36 PM PST by Tall_Texan (Where liberals lead, misery follows.)
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To: Jack Black
People may get tired of being constantly under "Orange Alert" and vote for a candidate offering a less muscular foreign policy, much as they did with Jimmy Carter in 1976. This candidate is unlikely to be a Republican.

Other than the above,you've made a good list. It was exactly the opposite that ushered Carter in. The pivotal moment was Ford's gaffe in the debates that Poland was not a Communist dominated country. Carter took that statement to the cleaners and every former Confederate state except Virginia to the presidency. To this day, Liberals try to blame that close election on Ford's decision to dump Rockerfeller and insert Dole on the ticket. Nothing could be further from the truth. He allowed Carter to pass him on the right.


37 posted on 02/08/2003 1:44:09 PM PST by Vigilanteman
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To: Jack Black
Jacko..........

A. Revolt of the Base....

low interest fiscal environment adds huge increase to home ownership. Homeowners hate taxes.Adds to the base!

B. Out of Control Spending

deficits are much smaller in percentage of GDP than in the 1980s. Stimulative to the economy.

C. Third party insurgencey

wacko Greens will expand to draw down Democrat base.

D. Lack of attractive candidates.

(least of your worries)Re 2002 elections......the best candidates will be recruited and hand-picked by Bush and friends

E. War weariness.

Constant reminder of Democrats' weak stand on defense!

F. Scandal.

Clintons and Kennedys still on the scene

G. Death

Democrat dinosaurs.....Hollings,Byrd,Kennedy do not look like Methusalas

(mine)H. Retirements

Faced with minority status in both houses of Congress for a long time, many Democrats will retire.
Opportunities for pickups.
Zell Miller is just the first.

I am very optimistic for my country and my future~~

41 posted on 02/08/2003 1:58:42 PM PST by CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
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