Posted on 02/08/2003 11:53:15 AM PST by John Jorsett
On November 4, 1952, the Republican Party elected a President and captured both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This period of united Republican government lasted only until 1954, when the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Those were the last years the GOP had extended control of our national government —until the November 2002 election. This time, however, the Republicans have gained control of the House and Senate not for two years, but for at least a decade.
Over the next ten years, all of Congress is likely to remain in GOP hands. In fact, both houses will become more Republican and more conservative. Five separate factors will push in that direction.
First, the most recent round of redistricting solidifies Republicans. We now know the shape, size, and political complexion of most of the 435 House districts, and they will remain unchanged until the 2012 lection. Most Congressional seats are redistricted to protect incumbents; competitive races rarely take place. In 2002, only seven incumbents lost elections. Fully 360 House members won 55 percent of the vote or more—a walkaway. In races where the winner merely eked out a victory, Republicans won 11 times and Democrats 18.
The remaining changes in Congressional districts promise additional benefit to the GOP. There are three states that had districts imposed on them by a court (because the parties could not agree on boundaries) which now have one-party control of the governor’s mansion and state legislature. As a result, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma will now be redistricted to partisan advantage. The latter two are Democrat-controlled. But Texas, now all-GOP, is vastly more populous.
Texas has 32 House seats—currently 15 Republicans and 17 Democrats. After the map is redrawn the Lone Star state may end up with 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats. New Mexico, which has three seats, and Oklahoma, which has five, will try to shift in the other direction, but they will be able to squeeze out two or three new Democratic seats only if the state governments want to tangle with Republican senators.
The second factor favoring Republicans is that, unlike in 1952 or 1980, the 280 Republican members of the House and Senate weren’t ushered in as part of some unusual partisan landslide. Following on GOP landslides in 1954, 1982, and 1994, weak members that won simply by riding on their party’s coattails were culled from the herd in subsequent elections. There are no remaining weak Republicans.
Third, as senior Democrats retire from Congress over the coming years, many of their districts will flip to a Republican, regardless of who runs. The GOP stands to gain seven seats this way. Their counterparts, Republicans hanging on to Democratic seats, have been winnowed down over the years to the point where Jim Leach of Iowa is now the only Republican holding down a seat in an obvious Democratic district.
Fourth, the Republican majority promises to become more conservative, as previous-generation Republicans who vote more to the left gradually retire and are replaced by younger GOP members more in keeping with their conservative districts. New York’s Sherwood Boehlert, Michigan’s Fred Upton, and Maryland’s Wayne Gilchrist, for example, would actually do better in elections if they voted more conservatively. Their eventual replacements will. Most “moderate” Democratic members of Congress are liberals who live in conservative districts. Most “moderate” Republicans, on the other hand, cast votes based on their own worldview—not their district’s.
Fifth, the very nature of the Senate will help the GOP in the years ahead. In the very close Bush/Gore race of 2000, George W. Bush carried 30 states and Al Gore carried 20. Over time, therefore, one would expect the Senate to have roughly 60 Republicans and 40 Democrats. It’s an anomaly that, today, four Democrats represent Republican majority North and South Dakota. Republicans hold the governor’s mansion and legislature in Florida, but the state still sends two Democrats to the Senate. How long can Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina continue to send Democratic senators to Washington?
With Republican control of Congress assured, and President Bush likely to run the executive branch for another six years, many of the fiercest political battles in the years ahead will be fought over something different altogether: over control of the federal judiciary—our least democratic branch of government.
A. Revolt of the Base....
low interest fiscal environment adds huge increase to home ownership. Homeowners hate taxes.Adds to the base!
B. Out of Control Spending
deficits are much smaller in percentage of GDP than in the 1980s. Stimulative to the economy.
C. Third party insurgencey
wacko Greens will expand to draw down Democrat base.
D. Lack of attractive candidates.
(least of your worries)Re 2002 elections......the best candidates will be recruited and hand-picked by Bush and friends
E. War weariness.
Constant reminder of Democrats' weak stand on defense!
F. Scandal.
Clintons and Kennedys still on the scene
G. Death
Democrat dinosaurs.....Hollings,Byrd,Kennedy do not look like Methusalas
(mine)H. Retirements
Faced with minority status in both houses of Congress for a long time, many Democrats will retire.
Opportunities for pickups.
Zell Miller is just the first.
I am very optimistic for my country and my future~~
I am not that small-minded to allow one issue to keep me from voting.
I am personally against abortion, but I live with it because it is the law.
I believe that both Israel and Switzerland have laws to mandate possession of assault weapons by all males 25-55 or something like that.
I have a large sharp sword for home defense.
That is all that need be said about this absurd piece of drivel.
--Boris
Actually, the more Republican I became, the less my liberal pals liked me. So they just faded off into the sunset, and we don't speak very often.
Now, as for my family . . .
Vacations get louder every year, but I think I'm making my point.
That is all that need be said about this absurd piece of drivel.
You're right.
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;/ Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,/ The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;/ The best lack all conviction, while the worst/ Are full of passionate intensity.
We may as well kill ourselves right now.
You sure ur on the correct forum? Such silly generalizations seem a bit more appropriate on DU.
That was my first thought as well. Please, LORD, let it be so!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.