Posted on 02/04/2003 9:08:47 AM PST by TLBSHOW
Shuttle Loss Highlights Need for New Space Vehicle
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The loss of the space shuttle Columbia underscores the need to develop a next-generation U.S. space vehicle, and could help reinvigorate the nation's "lethargic" space program, aerospace experts said.
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"When a disaster like this occurs ... it does change people's thinking," said John Douglass, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association and a member of a U.S. commission that ended its work last year with an urgent call for more funding for human and robotic space flights.
"If history repeats itself, we will see not only a re-emergence of interest in the space program, but also a greater willingness to fund it," said Douglass, a former assistant Navy secretary and congressional aide, on Monday.
"I think it's going to focus people's attention on the need to field a shuttle replacement," said Douglass, noting NASA (news - web sites) secured a boost in funding for shuttle missions after the 1986 Challenger disaster, which like that of Columbia, killed all seven astronauts on board.
NASA has begun work on developing a successor to the shuttles in its program, but NASA's head of space flight admitted last November there was no timetable for retiring the current fleet, now numbering three after Columbia's loss, despite earlier plans eyeing a 2012 date.
NASA documents showed the 20-year-old shuttle program might continue to operate in some form through 2020 and beyond, but those plans could come under closer scrutiny after Saturday's accident, according to industry experts.
Columbia and the other shuttles were built in the 1970s, based on technology dating back to the 1960s.
Robert Walker, who chaired the 12-member Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry, said the United States could not afford to lose its leadership role in human space exploration, despite a lack of funding and "sense of lethargy" that characterized the program in recent years.
CHINA COMPETING FOR SPACE ROLE
He said China was striving to put humans in space within a year and to reach the moon within a decade -- and possibly sooner.
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Walker acknowledged the Bush administration faced competing demands for funding as it prepared for a possible war with Iraq and continued its war on terrorism, but said space exploration was an important arena for driving technological developments.
"You're always evaluating these things in terms of the immediate need, but once we figure out that the Chinese have ambitions in this area, we will not want to fall behind," said Walker, a former Republican lawmaker from Pennsylvania.
Walker said NASA programs were clearly underfunded in recent years, and the commission's report cited concerns about the aging launch infrastructure used in the shuttle program.
It noted that the checkout, control and monitoring subsystem developed in the 1970s for shuttle testing and launch was so old there were not enough space parts for 10 percent of its components.
Walker said there had been no suggestion funding shortfalls were in any way responsible for the shuttle disaster.
But he said the tragedy was riveting public attention to the space program and could help shore up funding for increased work on space flight programs, including work on a vehicle to replace the shuttle.
President Bush (news - web sites) Monday proposed a 22 percent increase for the space shuttle program in his fiscal 2004 federal budget request to Congress, which was prepared before the Columbia disaster. He requested $3.9 billion for the program, compared with $3.2 billion in 2003.
Administration officials say it is too early to consider whether to replace the lost shuttle and what the consequences will be for work on developing a successor spacecraft.
SHUTTLE REPLACEMENT
Under current plans, NASA expects to make a decision around 2006 or 2007 about what type of spacecraft would succeed the shuttle, with a new spacecraft to be put into operation by the end of the decade.
It took 32 months for NASA to resume space flights after the 1986 Challenger accident, but officials are already saying flights should resume more quickly in this case, not least because of a need to service the International Space Station (news - web sites).
"There is no real option to the shuttle going forward in the near term," said Walker.
He said the accident underscored the inherent dangers of putting humans into space, citing a statistical 1-in-100 chance of a catastrophic event on every shuttle flight, especially aboard a shuttle with decades-old technology.
Developing the next-generation space vehicle, with far more modern technologies available, would help reduce those frightening statistical odds, Walker said.
Yeah, it's a matter of time. Currently, any payoff for the enormous investment is too far out (time-wise).
When this investment-reward time is compressed, then you will see private enterprise surpass the government.
Stationing nuclear bombs in orbit certainly is, but militarization is too vague. There are already military satellites in all kinds of orbits from all countries capable of launching satellites. Did you call Bohannon?
He's a newsguy, the media, but with his own radio talkshow. He's a Liberal, but realistic, an unusual combination. Maybe you can hear his show; it's on every day on over 200 radio stations. He takes calls from the listening audience and it is easy to get in.
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