[spunkets]

Here's the dimentions of the ship. Using the videos in the link I posted and using the arrow key to single frame the 30 frame/sec video, I get from 120min to 270mph max for the chunk at impact. The video isn't that good for an easy tell. It must be massive or the relative velocity would be larger. It appears to be ice, exploding when it wacks the wing. Must be at least 5lbs. So at 150mph, it's at least 3500 ft-lbs. That's a significant hit. If someone plays with the video, they can get better numbers.

[DoughtyOne]

I conclude it probably wasn't ice. I say that because review of the video clearly shows a mass still in tact moving away amidst the debris after impact. This isn't clearly visible in the photos to my knowledge. Thank you for your comments regarding foot pounds etc. We'll just have to see how this plays out. Take care.

[bonesmccoy]

Your numbers are pretty damning.

Of course, our discussion is occuring after the accident.

The mass of the object is difficult to assess. The problem is that the fwd attach point between the orbiter and the ET obstructs the view of the object.

The NASA engineers may have underestimated the size of the object.

Still, the mission was doomed. Even if they had done an EVA to evaluate the wing damage, there is no way they could have repaired the damage or rescued the crew (unless the next flight was rushed to the pad and risked to save the crew).