Posted on 02/02/2003 9:39:01 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Edited on 02/02/2003 9:46:41 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
If they hit Kyoto, I will gurantee you that Japan will destroy the entire N. Korea several times. It is the the wet dream of pro-militarist like Ishihara Shintaro. Kyoto to Japan is what Rome is to Italy.
I think that N. Korea will hit Yokoska and other places with U.S. military installations.
If that happens, that will be the end of NPT and the beginning of nuclear East Asia. All countries including S. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan will have nukes in a short order.
Very bad news to America, China, and Russia. This will open the foodgate for aspiring nuclear power of various sizes all over the world. In that sense, N. Korean crisis has the world-wide implications if it is allowed to develop nukes despite international pressure. N. Korea will be a distinct example that even a bankrupt backward country can shove big powers and acquire nukes if it is determined enough.
I am not sure if Bush admin is ready to deal with the consequence, though. This will be viewed as a catastrophic failure. I think that, if N. Korea push that far, America will do something drastic. Regime change or military action of some kind. Do not rule out quiet help from other big powers even if they have been indifferent so far. What used to be too risky to contemplate would suddenly become one of viable options.
I do not see America back off so easily.
What do you think the consequence would be to the global economic order if one of its three pillars just crumbles away? The bond and stock markets would flush down the toilet; the major financial houses would unravel at the seams; the U.S. real estate market would collapse; unemployment would skyrocket; government services would become inoperable. Moreover, how do you think the United States would maintain its awesome military establishment in the midst of a cataclysmic depression?
As I stated, the outcome depends on what Kim Jong Il intends. If he refuses a resolution short of nuclear capability (which they already have, in any case - so I mean declared capability) then there's simply nothing to be done but accommodate that. The whole reason we're ostensibly going to war in Iraq is to prevent a similar intractable scenario. I fully expect a negotiated resolution of some kind by whatever route; as mentioned, I'll be shocked otherwise.
This current crisis still have 4-6 months to play out. During that time, there will be at least 3-4 more steps of escalation and counterescalation. There is a possiblity of internal N. Korean power struggle because people inside the N. Korean regime are not suicidal albeit ruthless.
If America can convince many in N. Korean leadership the certain annhilation when they cross a certain line in the sand and back it up with credible military deployments, N. Korea can accomodate real concessions, not the nominal vow to "freeze development" while they continue development in the third country like Pakistan, Libya, or Iran just as Germany did after WWI to evade the Versailles treary.
I can envision a situation like Cuban missile crisis or Ax murder incident in 1976 where America was fully ready to go all the way to the finish. And N. Korea backs off and settles the conflict with U.S.
However, if N. Korea openly and blatantly flaunt their finished nuke, all the consideration of economy will go out to the window however many business leaders wail about it.
I do not rule out negotiated settlement of some kind if N. Korea do not openly cross the nuclear threshold. But it will be after a major scare. N. Korea does not go away without one.
There are two critical differences between North Korea's situation of 2003 and the Soviet Union's situation of 1962.
1) The North Korean regime appears convinced that nuclear capability is the only means to defend itself from the United States. Khruschev and the Soviet leadership did not face any comparable peril.
2) The continuation of the regime is dependent on economic concessions of some kind; the Soviet Union required no similar assistance (indeed, at the time, Soviet economic growth was outpacing America).
I do not rule out negotiated settlement of some kind if N. Korea do not openly cross the nuclear threshold.
Sure, but there's no meaningful distinction here. So long as North Korea has a nuclear capability (which it already has) then the proliferation concerns are the same whether declared or undeclared. That's the real threat. The only way to contain the threat is to appease the regime in some fashion or another. In short, to provide whatever concessions are required to permit a return of full IAEA monitoring.
It makes no difference in respect to your previous statement (that other nation's will recognize the deterrent value of nuclear capability) whether North Korea's power is declared or undeclared. They will know that it exists in either eventuality. There is simply nothing to gain and much to lose from striking North Korea, and the North Koreans realize that.
The ball is in Kim Jong Il's court...
"It's like the demons of hell would be unleashed if North Korea decides to go to war," said David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector in North Korea.
The W-88 warhead has a yield up to 475 kt.
There can me up to 8 warheads on each missle.
One US SSBN with 24 Missles is much more than needed to eliminate the NK problem.
I'd assume one or more is near enough to NK at all times.
The W-80 warhead on cruise missles arming the attack subs have a yield up to 150 kt.
Since the Kitty Hawk is now on patrol near NK,
there are a couple of the attack subs already there too, as part of her battle group.
Murphy is alive and well this morning.
N. Korea do have enough to defend or scare others with existing arsenals. They may not reach U.S.A from N. Korea. But they create enough havoc.
N. Korea seeked out America for shoring up N. Korea economically without changing its system. N. Korea was more concerned about its internal collapse due to disintegrating economy. American attack or S. Korean invasion was not the point at the time. Right now, external attack could be one of possibilities thanks to their tireless efforts in last 10 years.
Removing ambiguity makes the huge difference politically.
They should not cross the line of publicly declaring the existence of their nukes. And back out more about their positions. Otherwise, everything is back to square one prior to the last September.
Despite their hellish postures, you should not buy into them 100%. They may do serious damages but they are also afraid to die and lose all they have. The trick is to convince some in N. Korea that there is a future for them if they get out and switch sides.
This will go very close to the brink. Their heads are on the line, literally.
Backing off from this crisis does not mean instant death to all N. Korean elites. Some will go down. But others want to live. Just like in Soviet Union where the top guy went down but others hung on. When ax murder in '76 happened, America was ready to sweep N. Korea back 100km from DMZ. They blinked and Kim Il-Sung promised not to do it again. The first and the last time he ever apologized to Americans.
If N. Korea chooses to agree de-facto dismantling of WMD (expressed in diplomatic weasel words), they can get aids money and the creation of industry complex in Kaesung, peace treaty with S. Korea and U.S. But if they want all these without dismantling their WMDs, it is not going to work.
It is not "either N. Korea has nukes or it will totally collapse." There is another way out if N. Korea figures it out.
They are raising a bar too high now. They have to be reminded that the asking price is too high to be enjoyed while they are alive. If they lower the asking price, everybody lives. If they face the jaw of death, they would settle for lower price even if Kim Jong-Il may have to be purged in the process.
We just need a less hostile regime which half-way resemble the current Chinese communists. That will satisfy most. But even that is unacceptable to current losers in Pyongyang because they have been able to get away with their extortion so long that they got used to it.
Pyongyang is just haggling over the price in their typical outrageous manner. I am used to this antics for a long time. So I am not as frightened as somebody who saw this only from the distance while I am aware that they can do a lot of damage. But it cuts both ways. And they are not backed into the corner yet even if they act like the are
As soon as General Mushareff (sp?) fals from power ..... they will be.
Murphy was an optimist.
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