The Space Shuttle Must Be Stopped

A spacecraft is a metaphor of national inspiration: majestic, technologically advanced, produced at dear cost and entrusted with precious cargo, rising above the constraints of the earth. The spacecraft carries our secret hope that there is something better out there—a world where we may someday go and leave the sorrows of the past behind. The spacecraft rises toward the heavens exactly as, in our finest moments as a nation, our hearts have risen toward justice and principle. And when, for no clear reason, the vessel crumbles, as it did in 1986 with Challenger and last week with Columbia, we falsely think the promise of America goes with it.

Unfortunately, the core problem that lay at the heart of the Challenger tragedy applies to the Columbia tragedy as well. That core problem is the space shuttle itself. For 20 years, the American space program has been wedded to a space-shuttle system that is too expensive, too risky, too big for most of the ways it is used, with budgets that suck up funds that could be invested in a modern system that would make space flight cheaper and safer. The space shuttle is impressive in technical terms, but in financial terms and safety terms no project has done more harm to space exploration. With hundreds of launches to date, the American and Russian manned space programs have suffered just three fatal losses in flight—and two were space-shuttle calamities. This simply must be the end of the program.

Will the much more expensive effort to build a manned International Space Station end too? In cost and justification, it's as dubious as the shuttle. The two programs are each other's mirror images. The space station was conceived mainly to give the shuttle a destination, and the shuttle has been kept flying mainly to keep the space station serviced. Three crew members—Expedition Six, in NASA argot—remain aloft on the space station. Probably a Russian rocket will need to go up to bring them home. The wisdom of replacing them seems dubious at best. This second shuttle loss means NASA must be completely restructured—if not abolished and replaced with a new agency with a new mission.

Why did NASA stick with the space shuttle so long? Though the space shuttle is viewed as futuristic, its design is three decades old. The shuttle's main engines, first tested in the late 1970s, use hundreds more moving parts than do new rocket-motor designs. The fragile heat-dissipating tiles were designed before breakthroughs in materials science. Until recently, the flight-deck computers on the space shuttle used old 8086 chips from the early 1980s, the sort of pre-Pentium electronics no self-respecting teenager would dream of using for a video game.

Most important, the space shuttle was designed under the highly unrealistic assumption that the fleet would fly to space once a week and that each shuttle would need to be big enough to carry 50,000 lbs. of payload. In actual use, the shuttle fleet has averaged five flights a year; this year flights were to be cut back to four. The maximum payload is almost never carried. Yet to accommodate the highly unrealistic initial goals, engineers made the shuttle huge and expensive. The Soviet space program also built a shuttle, called Buran, with almost exactly the same dimensions and capacities as its American counterpart. Buran flew to orbit once and was canceled, as it was ridiculously expensive and impractical.

Capitalism, of course, is supposed to weed out such inefficiencies. But in the American system, the shuttle's expense made the program politically attractive. Originally projected to cost $5 million per flight in today's dollars, each shuttle launch instead runs to around $500 million. Aerospace contractors love the fact that the shuttle launches cost so much.

In two decades of use, shuttles have experienced an array of problems—engine malfunctions, damage to the heat-shielding tiles—that have nearly produced other disasters. Seeing this, some analysts proposed that the shuttle be phased out, that cargo launches be carried aboard by far cheaper, unmanned, throwaway rockets and that NASA build a small "space plane" solely for people, to be used on those occasions when men and women are truly needed in space.

Throwaway rockets can fail too. Last month a French-built Ariane exploded on lift-off. No one cared, except the insurance companies that covered the payload, because there was no crew aboard. NASA's insistence on sending a crew on every shuttle flight means risking precious human life for mindless tasks that automated devices can easily carry out. Did Israeli astronaut Ilan Ramon really have to be there to push a couple of buttons on the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment, the payload package he died to accompany to space?

Switching to unmanned rockets for payload launching and a small space plane for those rare times humans are really needed would cut costs, which is why aerospace contractors have lobbied against such reform. Boeing and Lockheed Martin split roughly half the shuttle business through an Orwellian-named consortium called the United Space Alliance. It's a source of significant profit for both companies; United Space Alliance employs 6,400 contractor personnel for shuttle launches alone. Many other aerospace contractors also benefit from the space-shuttle program.

Any new space system that reduced costs would be, to the contractors, killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Just a few weeks ago, NASA canceled a program called the Space Launch Initiative, whose goal was to design a much cheaper and more reliable replacement for the shuttle. Along with the cancellation, NASA announced that the shuttle fleet would remain in operation until 2020, meaning that Columbia was supposed to continue flying into outer space even when its airframe was more than 40 years old! True, B-52s have flown as long. But they don't endure three times the force of gravity on takeoff and 2000*none on re-entry.

A rational person might have laughed out loud at the thought that although school buses are replaced every decade, a spaceship was expected to remain in service for 40 years. Yet the "primes," as NASA's big contractors are known, were overjoyed when the Space Launch Initiative was canceled because it promised them lavish shuttle payments indefinitely. Of course, the contractors also worked hard to make the shuttle safe. But keeping prices up was a higher priority than having a sensible launch system.

Will NASA whitewash problems as it did after Challenger? The haunting fact of Challenger was that engineers who knew about the booster-joint problem begged NASA not to launch that day and were ignored. Later the Rogers Commission, ordered to get to the bottom of things, essentially recommended that nothing change. No NASA manager was fired; no safety systems were added to the solid rocket boosters whose explosion destroyed Challenger; no escape-capsule system was added to get astronauts out in a calamity, which might have helped Columbia. In return for failure, the shuttle program got a big budget increase. Post-Challenger "reforms" were left up to the very old-boy network that had created the problem in the first place and that benefited from continuing high costs.

Concerned foremost with budget politics, Congress too did its best to whitewash. Large manned-space-flight centers that depend on the shuttle are in Texas, Ohio, Florida and Alabama. Congressional delegations from these states fought frantically against a shuttle replacement. The result was years of generous funding for constituents—and now another tragedy.

The tough questions that have gone unasked about the space shuttle have also gone unasked about the space station, which generates billions in budget allocations for California, Texas, Ohio, Florida and other states. Started in 1984 and originally slated to cost $14 billion in today's dollars, the space station has already cost at least $35 billion—not counting billions more for launch costs—and won't be finished until 2008. The bottled water alone that crews use aboard the space station costs taxpayers almost half a million dollars a day. (No, that is not a misprint.) There are no scientific experiments aboard the space station that could not be done far more cheaply on unmanned probes. The only space-station research that does require crew is "life science," or studying the human body's response to space. Space life science is useful but means astronauts are on the station mainly to take one another's pulse, a pretty marginal goal for such an astronomical price.

What is next for America in space? An outsider commission is needed to investigate the Columbia accident—and must report to the President, not Congress, since Congress has shown itself unable to think about anything but pork barrel when it comes to space programs.

For 20 years, the cart has been before the horse in U.S. space policy. NASA has been attempting complex missions involving many astronauts without first developing an affordable and dependable means to orbit. The emphasis now must be on designing an all-new system that is lower priced and reliable. And if human space flight stops for a decade while that happens, so be it. Once there is a cheaper and safer way to get people and cargo into orbit, talk of grand goals might become reality. New, less-expensive throwaway rockets would allow NASA to launch more space probes—the one part of the program that is constantly cost-effective. An affordable means to orbit might make possible a return to the moon for establishment of a research base and make possible the long-dreamed-of day when men and women set foot on Mars. But no grand goal is possible while NASA relies on the super-costly, dangerous shuttle.

In 1986 the last words transmitted from Challenger were in the valiant vow: "We are go at throttle up!" This meant the crew was about to apply maximum thrust, which turned out to be a fatal act. In the coming days, we will learn what the last words from Columbia were. Perhaps they too will reflect the valor and optimism shown by astronauts of all nations. It is time NASA and the congressional committees that supervise the agency demonstrated a tiny percentage of the bravery shown by the men and women who fly to space—by canceling the money-driven shuttle program and replacing it with something that makes sense.

Gregg Easterbrook is a senior editor of the New Republic and a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution. Five years before Challenger, he wrote in the Washington Monthly that the shuttles' solid rocket boosters were not safe.

I hope that does end up posted on every thread. Thanks for finding that quote - I only wish it would sink into the heads of the clowns who use tragedy as an excuse to forward their no-NASA agenda. But I have little hope - you can lead a horse to reason, but you can't make it think.

Bush has explained his Administration's priorities. NASA isn't one of them. It's up there with rural electrification and commodity price supports. Thanks to NASA, he'll have to pay some attention to it now when he should be focusing on the economy, Iraq, North Korea and Iran.

This morning, wire services reported another shuttle could have been prepared within a week theoretically. Assuming any astronaut is still trained to do a rendezvous, resupply or a rescue could have been attempted. Space is at a premium on the Shuttle, but one wishes they could have deployed a video cam with rocket thrusters to inspect the craft. It would have been useful numerous times in manned space flight history. Evidence is growing they were dead man walking from lift-off.

After four voyages Columbus couldn't get funding from anybody. A lot less money involved, similar outcome to NASA.

Most exploration was done by accidental tourists, fishermen, and private expeditions seeking gold or to open a trading route.

Incentives mean indirect subsidies which means I pay higher taxes. I'm opposed to higher taxes for any purpose except national defense.

Colonization won't occur for many generations, if ever.

If human beings can't live on this planet, what makes you think God wants them screwing up other environments?

Conceptually, manned space exploration was a phenomenon of the 1940s-1960s. It represents the past, not the future. It's been superceded by other technical developments--the computer revolution, robotics, miniaturization.

People have said the same thing for 50 years about AI and intelligent machines. Let me know when they get here.

Evidence is growing they were dead man walking from lift-off.

I believe that more than ever now. I viewed an enhanced video clip of the liftoff insulation impact event and it can be seen clearly that the debris contacted the underside of the left wing right in the area of the landing gear bay....not the leading edge of the wing.

I fear that there was quite substantial degradation to the protective thermal tiles in that area and there was no way at all to assess the damage in that area short of an EVA. And as stated by Mr. Dittemore yesterday, that plan of action could very well have caused more damage in the process.

NBC has also reported this morning that there is in fact the existence of a memo(s) stating concern that there was significant damage done during liftoff and that a re-entry would be extremely risky.

I do think we have an instance of NASA being afflicted by a fatal case of "not thinking outside the box."

Incentives mean indirect subsidies which means I pay higher taxes. I'm opposed to higher taxes for any purpose except national defense.

The incentives I was thinking of involved establishment of property rights, rather than subsidies. I would favor seeing property rights established for sections of the ocean, to enable undersea mining/drilling/colonization

>>that there was significant damage done during liftoff and that a re-entry would be extremely risky.

NASA has also posited that there was nothing that could be done while the oribiter was in space anyway.

I'm scouring the real news outlets for that gem (I heard it on a blurb on TV News), but if it is true it is a henious position. There are ALWAYS options. It might have been to leave the thing up there and have succeeding Soyuz missions bring up a few parts at a time while repairs are made.

Yhet should at least have gone EVA.

The U.S. would be strongly opposed to any rule that limits our access to any part of the sea or establishes foreign bases at sea. The U.S. has gone to war four times (Quasi-Naval War, 1798; War of 1812; World War I; Undeclared naval war against Germany, 1941) to defend our maritime rights. The U.S. is principally a naval power and a leading trading nation. Without unimpeded access to international waters, we could not fight the coming campaign against Iraq or liberated Afghanistan in 2001.

Similarly, it seems clear to me that manned space flight is simply too expensive (note - I didn't say dangerous) to continue at this time. Maybe a hiatus wouldn't be such a bad thing until SSTO rocket technology matures. Even the casual observer sees that the space station manning appears to be largly a maintenance staff tasked with keeping the thing in orbit.

I couldn't agree more. It's a foolish waste of money and they keep trying to say there is a scientific benefit but they sound like janitors trying to write a resume to be surgeons.

There are ALWAYS options. It might have been to leave the thing up there

True. But you have to ask yourself...

"How long could they have lasted?"
"How much oxygen did they have?"
"How long could they have held out after the cabin was saturated with CO₂?"
"How long would they have lasted after the fuel and power ran out?"

These are all valid questions and I believe the answers are..."No more than a few days."

The concept of the Shuttle is flawed in many ways. NASA assumed and the public was lead to believe that because the Shuttle looks like an aircraft the risk is comparable to flying an SST. Accordingly, there's an overall lack of redundancy and safety. The crew should be able to deploy a satellite to examine the craft visually in orbit. Also, a backup shuttle should be prepared for search and rescue immediately after launch as a matter of course. The fact they can't do the latter, or do it only at great risk, is further proof the Shuttle has failed. The original purposes were to reduce the cost of entry/lift into space dramatically and make manned space flight routine. With four Shuttles, they were able to fly a total of even four-five times a year only with difficulty. Now there are three, the production line is shut down, and the craft have reached, or are approaching the end of their useful lives. The Concorde is an analogy. Keep three aging Shuttles flying and risk a threepeat relatively soon or terminate the program now?

Come on. Automated probes have mapped all of the moon, mars, venusian atmosphere and europa, flown by all of the planets conducting scientific research and taking photos, left the solar system, landed on Mars and taken soil samples, and probed the Venusian atmosphere down to the surface. All of this was accomplished with relatively primitive technology.

If we were serious about space exploration, we could readily return to the Moon and Mars for more elaborate exploration using robots for a fraction of the cost of sending astronauts. The former might actually happen. The latter won't.

Yours is a statement of faith, not fact. Of course robotic missions can accomplish great things, but they simply cannot do everything we want to accomplish on an exploration mission. For example, any machine can pick up a rock, but even a remotely controlled robot cannot select from a wide variety the rock with the most potential to unlock major secrets. This was shown conclusively during Apollo when you compare the carefully selected, geologically documented samples returned by the astronauts with the simple scoop of soil returned by the Soviet Luna 16, 20, and 24 missions. Apollo revolutionized our understanding of planetary processes; the Luna samples were just points on a data curve.

But more importantly, people in space have enormous inspirational power. Most people in the space business today got into it because of youthful dreams of walking on another world. No kid dreams of building a robot to walk on another world -- they settle for it.

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