Schröder faces humiliation at polls (HOLD MEIN BIER!)

The Sunday Times ^ | February 2, 2003 | Peter Conradi

[MadIvan]

IT SHOULD have been about class sizes, jobs and the other minutiae of local politics, but Gerhard Schröder could not resist the I-word. As supporters of Germany’s ruling Social Democrats gathered for one of the last rallies before elections today in his home state of Lower Saxony, the chancellor just wanted to talk about Iraq.

“I will never give up hope that the conflict in and around Iraq can be solved with peaceful means,” he told the crowd. “We must give the weapons inspectors in Iraq the time they want and need to establish what is really happening.”

It will take more than Saddam Hussein to save Schröder, however, as he heads for his most humiliating setback since he came to power 4½ years ago. The Social Democrats (SPD) — narrowly re-elected in September, largely on their anti-war platform — face certain defeat today in state polls in the southwestern state of Hesse as well as in Lower Saxony.

This would allow the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the chancellor’s right-wing opponents, to take control of the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, obliging him to embark on a German version of cohabitation — the uneasy coexistence between political rivals that hobbled French politics until President Jacques Chirac’s crushing election victory last year.

Despite Schröder’s efforts to turn voters’ attention towards Baghdad rather than Berlin, the German elections are about his government’s dismal performance, highlighted by a series of deeply unpopular tax rises and by unemployment figures expected to hit a new high of 4.6m this week.

Sigmar Gabriel, 43, a chubby former teacher who became premier of Lower Saxony in 1999, has fought a spirited campaign for the SPD. During a final television duel he appeared far more self-assured than Christian Wulff, also 43, his bookish CDU rival.

Wulff, beaten twice to the state premiership by Schröder, is assured of revenge. Voters appear desperate for change after 13 years of Social Democrat rule that has left the state lagging behind the rest of western Germany.

Polls last week showed the CDU leading the Social Democrats by 48% to 33%, preparing the way for Wulff to form a coalition with the centrist Free Democratic party (FDP). Last-minute attempts by Gabriel to distance himself from his mentor look unlikely to save him.

Hesse gives Schröder little cause for optimism. Roland Koch, the CDU state premier, who has headed a coalition with the FDP there since 1999, seems certain to increase his share of the vote. Polls suggest he could win 51%, compared with the SPD’s projected 29%, allowing his party to rule alone.

For Schröder, today’s elections are not just about almost certain ignominy in his home territory. He will be more concerned about losing control of the Bundesrat.

The chamber, composed of representatives of Germany’s 16 states, is almost evenly split at present; victory for Wulff could give his party 41 of the 69 seats, obliging the government to strike compromises with the CDU on its economic reforms.

Far from leading to legislative gridlock, however, this could force Schröder to introduce painful reforms that economists say are needed in a country that has long been living beyond its means.

The first signs of a new, more pragmatic Schröder were seen last week when Wolfgang Clement, the economics and labour minister, unveiled plans to cut unemployment benefits and make it easier for small firms to lay workers off.

The government faces a battle in coming weeks over more labour reforms and plans to restructure the health service. Traditionalists on the SPD’s left are unhappy and the party’s powerful trade union supporters could present a challenge.

Public sector workers are threatening a winter of discontent and Michael Sommer, leader of the DGB, Germany’s TUC, has warned Schröder of a new “ice age”. Dealing with the issue of Iraq could be a pushover by comparison.

[KLT]

Could be a hole ok.....bet his brains leak out....

[The Vast Right Wing]

'Is this a good thing? Right wing Germans have their own history.'

You have to remember that this is europe we are talking about. Right wing in europe typically means you think the state should only control 90% of the economy.

[LiberalBuster]

I guess Germans are getting a bit tired of "All Socialism, All the Time."

[LiberalBuster]

>>You have to remember that this is europe we are talking
>>about. Right wing in europe typically means you think the
>>state should only control 90% of the economy.

Of course, what they don't realize is it is the "socialism" part of National Socialism (NAZIsm) that gives the state the "right" to own the means of production. For an allegedly educated people, they sure are thick.

[nicollo]

This man's arrogance is equal only to that of Clintoon. Blair's recent leadership marks an unimaginable contrast to the "third way" types we heard so much of before.

Does anyone say the word anymore? I haven't heard it in the U.S.ofA since 9/11 or, a year before then, i.e. Bush's ascension. God, how I love to hear from Germans how smart is their Chancellor. He's smart straight into his political grave.

And what of his soon-to-be after life? Have they a library planned for him at Hamburg? Perhaps he can become the Poet Lauriet of Auschwitz. Or Baghdad.

PS Oh how I pine for a peek into the mind of Tony Blair -- what thinks he of our x42 today?

[You Dirty Rats]

I lived in Hanover in 1994. It's long past time for this original home of the current British Royal Family to kick Schroeder's party out of the state premiership of Lower Saxony.

[Stultis]

How small a European government is really means nothing to us here in the States. Ditto with tax rates, social security, ad infinitum.

I'm no expert, but I suspect that the big problem in Europe, overwhelming these other issues, are labor markets that are frozen solid, and other obstacles to corporate restructuring. From the article:

The first signs of a new, more pragmatic Schröder were seen last week when Wolfgang Clement, the economics and labour minister, unveiled plans to cut unemployment benefits and make it easier for small firms to lay workers off.

Reforms like this are essential but, as the article suggested, will meet huge resistance. Wasn't it only last spring that the Red Brigades reemerged in Italy and assasinated the government minister leading the effort to reform Italian labor law?

Europe needs about a dozen Maggie Thatchers to face down the labor unions, but I'm not optimistic. Will conservative parties in Europe have the testicular fortitude to see through the necessary reforms?

[Check6]

Socialism sucks, lernt yet again.

[sushiman]

>His wife is sort of a German Hillary. Flying ashtray?

No , the heel mark of her leather boots stomping on his forehead !

[expatpat]

No, he's thinking of the National Socialists.

[Bonaparte]

"The Christian Democrats are fairly close ideologically to the Republican Party."

The CDU wants to tighten gun control laws even more than they already are. They oppose any foreign deployment of their armed forces. They support all sorts of state pay-outs to families with children, even the continuation of pay-outs to "children" who are well into adulthood. They have completely given up on the rights of the unborn -- it's not even mentioned in their platform. Doesn't sound a whole lot like the Republican party to me.

[elhombrelibre]

Nothing could improve Germany's image in the civilized world like a good and decisive defeat for Saddam's favorite ideological hitman, four times married and working on his fifth, simply "I" Schroeder.

[elhombrelibre]

Today's right-wing Germans are not very far to the right. They're more like country club conservatives. There are libertarians in Germany, but there's no sizable racist party, besides the left-wing anti-Semites.

[Michael81Dus]

The Bundesrat is in control of the opposition yet.
CDU/CSU/FDP/PRO parties have a 35 votes majority in the house (69 members). After taking Lower Saxony over, the majority would be 41 votes.

Now:
35 CDU bloc
11 neutral bloc (SPD/CDU or SPD/FDP governed states)
23 SPD bloc

But more interesting, this more comfortable lead of 41 votes also will bring us a new president in 2004, because we´re having a majority in the Federal Assemby electing the President on May 23 2004.

[MadIvan]

I solemnly predict that none of Germany's problems will receive any sort of resolution until a new government is in place; Schroeder has only one card to play, is playing it repeatedly, and playing it in place of actually making progress on anything.

Regards, Ivan

[Michael81Dus]

It is a good thing, Righ-wing doesn´t mean far-right. We´re a centre-right party, not equally to the Republican party in the US, but if you had the right to vote here, you´d vote CDU. The CDU has enforced German rearmament and integration to the West after WWII, we´re the party of German reunification and Pershing II.

We always defended our young Republic against all enemies from far-right and far-left.

[Michael81Dus]

No, the CDU/CSU is not equally to the Republican party, but you´d vote CDU here, if you had the right to do so!

[Michael81Dus]

He´s isolating Germany completely. He is gone mad... we´re facing interesting times.

[Michael81Dus]

LOL, I hear it always I´m criticizing him in the public. "But he looks so smart - a lot better than your challenger!" Was one of the most popular answers to me during the election campaign in 2002, our candiate was the conservative Governor of Bavaria.

[Michael81Dus]

WHAT?? Wrong, we´re satisfied with our gun laws, and we do not oppose deployment of our troops to the foreign, we were the first to do so in 1994 (Somalia) - then our highest court ruled that it´s ok regarding our constitution.