In a three way race (Bustamante v. moderate Republican v. conservative Republican) Butamante gets the plurality.
If the Democrats challange Bustamante, the moderate Republican (Roirdan) gets the plurality.
It's not clear to me how many candidates there would be on the ballot if it's part of the recall election itself, but if it's more than two (Davis and an opponent), then the Republican has a chance. The Democrats would split over Davis and his Democrat opponent, which might leave the Republican in the race with the most votes.