It's not clear to me how many candidates there would be on the ballot if it's part of the recall election itself, but if it's more than two (Davis and an opponent), then the Republican has a chance. The Democrats would split over Davis and his Democrat opponent, which might leave the Republican in the race with the most votes.
According to your post #14 above:
Sec 15(c) If the majority vote on the question is to recall, the officer is removed and, if there is a candidate, the candidate who receives a plurality is the successor. The officer may not be a candidate, nor shall there be any candidacy for an office filled pursuant to subdivision (d) of Section 16 of Article VI.