Colombia: Growing Crisis in Arauca?

STRATFOR ^ | Jan 30, 2003 | Staff

[Axion]

Colombia: Growing Crisis in Arauca?
Jan 30, 2003

Summary

In recent weeks, the oil-rich Arauca Department in eastern Colombia has become ground zero in the country's nearly 40-year-old conflict. In the coming months, the escalating conflict there likely will be a litmus test for all parties involved, including the government of President Alvaro Uribe Velez, rebel and paramilitary groups and even the Bush administration.

Analysis

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez is determined to prove that superior military forces can engage and defeat rebels in Arauca, a region in which the government never has maintained a real presence. However, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN) -- which together have about 23,000 fighters throughout the country -- are equally determined to defeat Uribe's forces in a region they deem strategically vital.

If Uribe can inflict punishing losses on the FARC and ELN in Arauca Department, which historically has been rebel country, the victory would validate his argument that military forces can handle the rebels. It likely also would win points for Uribe in Washington, which has committed to expanding U.S. military aid to Colombia.

However, if the FARC and ELN can hold their own against U.S.-trained forces, they could undermine political support in Colombia for Uribe's war policies -- and possibly weaken U.S. support at a time when U.S. forces are dealing with bigger conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries suspected of harboring Islamic extremist groups.

Arauca Department is the region where the Bush administration is initiating its promised military buildup to help Uribe defeat the FARC and ELN. Presently, about 70 U.S. Special Forces advisers are there training a Colombian brigade in oil pipeline protection and counterinsurgency tactics. The brigade will be assigned to protect the Cano Limon-Covenas oil pipeline, which is operated by U.S.-owned Occidental Petroleum.

The FARC and ELN see the pipeline as both a military target and an endless source of revenue from the extortion of oil companies. Both groups also hope to kill or kidnap American soldiers to embarrass the Bush administration and prove to Washington that the FARC and ELN are much tougher foes than the Central American guerrillas that U.S.-trained forces confronted in the 1980s.

Uribe announced Jan. 30 that the military presence in Arauca, which has been under army control for the past five months, will be further increased to counter escalating assaults and attacks by the FARC and ELN. He also announced that he will appoint a new department governor -- someone who would not be cowed by rebels into sharing an estimated $33 million in oil royalties that the government transfers to Arauca each year.

In the past month, rebel groups detonated four car bombs in Arauca that killed at least 12 people and injured dozens more. ELN units also kidnapped a British and an American journalist in that region on Jan. 21, and warned they would be killed if the government sent troops to rescue them.

The FARC and ELN want to provoke and humiliate the Uribe government. However, they also want to protect a region that they deem economically and strategically vital.

Arauca Department long has been an important source of revenue for the ELN and FARC, which routinely dynamite the Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline to deprive the government of needed revenues and to extort taxes from oil companies controlled by Occidental Petroleum.

Arauca's importance as a coca-growing region, from which the FARC and ELN derive important revenues, also has increased in the past year. Aerial crop eradication efforts in southern Colombia have forced rebel-sponsored coca growers to migrate to a less FARC- and ELN-dominated region. An estimated 12,000 hectares of coca fields now are growing in Arauca, according to Colombian government sources.

In addition to its economic value, Arauca is important strategically to the FARC and ELN because it shares a border with Venezuela. Control of Arauca gives the rebel groups a corridor through which they can export narcotics and import weapons and munitions from Venezuela.

The bulk of these weapons are smuggled into Venezuela by Caribbean and ethnic Arab gangs based in Maracaibo, in the state of Zulia, according to Colombian sources. However, the FARC and ELN also receive support from elements within the Venezuelan National Armed Forces (FAN), which appear to have both economic and political reasons for providing support to the rebels, according to Stratfor sources in Colombia.

Arauca's border with Venezuela also provides the FARC and ELN a safe haven, allowing them to escape pursuing military forces. Both groups are relatively assured that while President Hugo Chavez is in power, they can enter Venezuelan territory safely, but any crossover by Colombian forces likely would trigger an international incident.

As a result, the FARC and ELN can be expected to battle fiercely for control of Arauca Department, since they likely perceive that they have much to gain economically, politically and strategically if they can defeat Uribe -- or at least fight him to a bloody draw.

[backhoe]

Cross-link:

-The Fire Down South...( Latin America--)--

[Bayou City]

Bump for later.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Cincinatus' Wife]

In Idled Venezuela, Psychiatrists Work Overtime ***"We are seeing an immense proportion of depression," said Dr. Chirinos, who wears a white doctor's smock and oversize tie. "We have people with insomnia, anguish, apathy, lack of interest. People who feel they can do nothing, who have a sense of depression and resignation." Since not everyone can afford therapy, Venezuelans are increasingly seeking answers and advice wherever they can get them. Neighborhood groups in which people share their problems have sprung up. Others have found solace in the church, Afro-Caribbean religions or with astrologers. "They pray more and take refuge in God, who is the friend of the sufferer," said the Rev. Adán Ramírez, a Catholic priest. "We are seeing - and other priests have told me the same thing - more people coming to Mass."

Others have turned increasingly to stress remedies or natural medicines, "even when nobody around here has much spare money," said Jorge Luis Hernández, a pharmacy employee. The symptoms of the ailing are myriad: panic attacks are up, while sexual encounters are way down, psychiatrists say. Health problems seem to be on the rise, said some doctors, with an increase in hospital visits for everything from heart attacks to unexplained rashes. In serious cases, Venezuelans suffer all manner of phobias, often of public places where violence can erupt. "There is an attitude of paranoia I have noticed, where people think they are being chased," Dr. Álvaro Requena said. "They feel that waves and waves of people are going to come rob them."

Dr. Requena said that the constant street protests and the growing participation of Venezuelans in politics had helped relieve stress for many people. Yet he and other psychiatrists said even those who suffered nothing serious were still affected. María Cabrera, a physician, said she noticed that she had trouble concentrating. "If I am at home and doing three or four things, I cannot do something that requires concentration," she said. Milagros Torres, a lawyer who makes it a point to talk with her sister, a psychologist, to relieve stress, said, "I never took a pill in my life, a tranquilizer, but now I am taking them."

In Dr. Chirinos's office, on a faux leather couch, Ms. Dorante explained how she was "terrorized and confused," and fearful that the poor masses that support Mr. Chávez would overrun her neighborhood. "I cannot sleep, and every time I hear a firecracker I think there is an uprising," she said in a low voice. Dr. Chirinos, nodding as she spoke, cut in, "This is what we call xenophobia." "It is a form of ethnic phobia," he went on. "And yes, I'm seeing more of that, too."***