"As supermodern military hardware clashes in World War III, France and Germany square off against America and Britain, with the former Soviet Union caught in the middle. By the author of Vortex. Reprint. NYT. "
Posted on 01/22/2003 12:28:15 PM PST by NativeNewYorker
Washington (dpa) - U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said
Wednesday that the United States has support from a ''vast number'' of
European nations for its position on Iraq, which includes the possible
use of military force.
Responding to announcements earlier this week by Germany and France
saying they would not support a U.N. resolution backing a military
attack, Rumsfeld said he thinks of the two countries as ''old
Europe''.
''The centre of gravity is shifting to the east,'' he said.
''Germany has been a problem, France has been a problem. But when you
look at vast numbers of other countries, they are not with France and
Germany on this. They are with the United States.''
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said late Tuesday that his
government would not support a U.S. military assault to force Iraq's
compliance with U.N. disarmament resolutions or to oust Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein.
The opposition of France and Germany had earlier overshadowed
Monday's ministerial meeting on terrorism at the U.N. Security
Council, when German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer repeated his
government's aversion to military action against Iraq. His French
colleague, Dominique de Villepin, later held a lengthy press
conference in which he called war ''the worst'' solution and hinted
that France might veto a resolution calling for military action.
Fischer's comments prompted U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to
depart from his prepared remarks and warn the council that it risked
''impotence'' if it did not stand firm against Iraq.
Powell told newspaper journalists in an interview that Fischer
''got off into another direction'' and ''overwhelmed what the purpose
of the conference was all about''.
Powell said he called de Villepin Tuesday afternoon for ''a
conversation''. He described it as ''a candid and honest, forthright
exchange of views'', language that usually denotes sharp disagreement.
U.S. officials have denied that Powell was ''sandbagged'' in an
''ambush'' at the Security Council, and Powell called the French
opposition to the U.S. position ''a blip'', expressing hope that the
French ''will come to the understanding of the need'' for the U.S.
strategy of confronting Saddam.
Unfortunately we seem to be inching away from that power with Powell's "we will hold the oil in trust for the Iraqi people". Those Iraqi people, but permitting Saddam's regime to stay in power, has cost the United States and Britain countless billions over the past 12 years. It is only fair and logical to seize control of their oil production until these expenses are paid off in full. Thereafter, contracts with the new regime will be allocated based on the degree of cooperation with the U.S./U.K. regime change efforts. Therefore France and Germany would be last on the list. Russia seems to be easing off opposition because they realize it doesn't pay to oppose the inevitable.
The Franco-German alliance is an act of desperation and opportunism and will help us in the long run.
They need us far, far more than we need them. It is a shame that the Schroeder and Chirac bureaucracies are selling out their people in such a way.
These nations have been the major thorn in our side when it comes to our geopolitics. We aer now unburdened. We have carried the load for them (Yugosloavia) and consulted them (Iraq) because they are Western cultures and democratic societies.
Overt opposition by France and Germany only further justifies America doing what it wants because it has to, without the Euro-friction.
Plus, knowing these are essentially nations of socialist pansies, like the American left, they are weak appeasers not fighters when push comes to shove. They are not truly formidable adversaries, though they want to appear adversarial.
I just hope the USA isn't losing another generation saving these folks from hostile takeover (Islam) like it did 60 years ago.
Interesting observation indeed, sir.
Unfortunately we seem to be inching away from that power with Powell's "we will hold the oil in trust for the Iraqi people".
However, those same Iraqi people, by permitting Saddam's regime to stay in power, has cost the United States and Britain countless billions over the past 12 years. It is only fair and logical to seize control of their oil production until these expenses are paid off in full. Thereafter, contracts with the new regime will be allocated based on the degree of cooperation with the U.S./U.K. regime change efforts. Therefore France and Germany would be last on the list. Russia seems to be easing off opposition because they realize it doesn't pay to oppose the inevitable.
"Back" is not right, because up to now the Moslems have not had it.
I don't think you understand what it's like to live in a totalitarian country, and how difficult that kind of government is to overthrow.
My prediction is that, because of a move toward capitalist tax policies, Ireland and Russia will surpass the EU countries in prosperity, and also watch out for the Czech Republic and Hungary.
Only Germany, Scandinavia and the British Isles escaped their clutches entirely.
A new record for them!
France and Germany are maintaining an untenable, self-contradictory position.On the one hand, they don't want to participate in a war against a military as large as Iraq's (though they had no such reservations about smashing the tiny Serbs in Kosovo in 1999, however).
On the other hand, they want their threats to be taken seriously by the world's largest military power, the U.S.
Yet it is obvious that if France and Germany won't go to war against Iraq, that they certainly won't go to war against the U.S.
Thus, their threats are meaningless.
At most, France and Germany can order U.S. troops out of their countries (thus breaking up NATO and saving the U.S. Billion$ each year in military subsidies that are paid in to France and Germany for our bases, equipment, military services, etc.) and enact various trade barriers (which will impact France and Germany more than the U.S. because France and Germany export more to the U.S. than they import).
Gee, throw me into that briar patch.
This leaves France and Germany with a single realistic goal: gin up enough domestic American pressure in order for Bush to back down from Iraq.
By my calculations, France and Germany have less than two weeks in which to convince millions of Americans to not only change their minds, but to change their minds with such force that they become anti-war activists.
And to that end, France and Germany have made a very large bet on their prestige and EU power.
European nations such as Great Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, Turkey, and Czechoslavakia have ALREADY taken the U.S. side instead of the French/German side on this matter.
Moreover, the recent East-European additions to NATO are far more sypathetic to the U.S. and Russian view of the world than they are to the French/German view, which establishes an East/West political fissure that could be cracked with the wrong such political bet.
So right now the French and the Germans are trying to figure out how to make Russia more sympathetic to their pro-Iraq worldview, an interesting challenge since the Russians are currently fighting Islamic extremists in Chechnya and Georgia, and the Russians are COMPETING with Iraq in the world oil market.
For their part, the Russians have played this geopolitical drama masterfully, to the extent that many seasoned political veterans actually believe that Russia has pro-Iraq tendencies based upon $8 Billion in Iraqi debt that was defaulted on by Hussein more than a decade ago. Suffice it to say that with Russian troops dying in Chechnya almost everyday and with Islamic terrorists attacking Moscow on a regular basis and with Iraqi oil shipments keeping Billions in Russian oil sales prices down, the Russians are hardly concerned about a long-past loan default.
In fact, the Russians are ideally poised to surpass France and Germany as key American allies. A case could easily be made that American and Russian interests on oil shipments and stopping Islamic terrorism are far more in line with each other than with France and Germany.
Should the Russians come down fully on GWB's side regarding Iraq, and should France and Germany double-up on their losing anti-war bet, the potential actually exists for Greece, Serbia, most of Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Russia to form a new alliance with the U.S. Such an occurance is not out of the question at this point.
With these things out in the open for debate, it might be worth noting that the French and Germans now have more to lose than does the U.S.
GWB isn't going to experience much of a loss politically whether he attacks Iraq now or in 6 months, yet Germany and France could potentially have everything to lose if they continue to bet against such an attack.
Moreover, France and Germany are in a particularly weak position economically. The Euro is in dire danger today. Great Britian might not even adopt the currency, for instance, and the French and German budget deficits are threatening not only the Euro but also the financial health of the other nations that have adopted it as their currency (with much fiscal pain for them in the process). And on top of all of those dire facts, the French and German economies are experiencing roughly 10% unemployment at the present (and both nations are on the threshold of a major banking crisis to boot).
Such dire circumstances are hardly the ideal position to be in to be making such major political bets against the world's largest economy.
With so much at stake and with such a weak position to be in, the French and the Germans must either convince Turkey and Russia to back out of any support for the Iraq war, or they must convince the U.S. to back down, or the French and the Germans must admit defeat and join the U.S. coalition.
You asked for interesting times, you got them!
Oh yeah, one more thing: with the French and the Germans in such a desperate circumstance, is it any wonder that we no longer hear them loudly chanting that President Bush is an uneducated foreign policy idiot?!
I just hope the USA isn't losing another generation saving these folks from hostile takeover (Islam) like it did 60 years ago.
Maybe the Islamisists will let them form a puppet government. They could call it the Second Vichy Republic.
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