The signals of whether the GOP will fumble this issue are mixed. I'll comment on a few of them.
The sad fact is that President Bush campaigned as someone who would rarely do anything that would make Katie Couric put on her little frowny face. Personally, I think the more often the little wench is upset, the more often America is moving in the right direction. Unfortunately, we have a president who wants people like her to say that he is "reasonable." I like President Bush in many ways, but I've thought for a long time that he was being far too accommodating of our enemies on gun control. (See This is Julie for my first writing criticizing him on this issue.) If the media puts pressure on him to reenact the ban and make it permanent, he will likely pressure the GOP Congress to pass the ban again.
The danger in supporting the ban for him is that he wouldn't be president today without the votes of many gun owners who thought he was better than Algore even if he didn't seem the staunchest of allies. He'll have much more support in 2004 from people who vote for the incumbents without thinking, but he probably won't be so secure that he can lose one of his key constituencies. If he signs the ban just before the election, he will demoralize many people who had supported him. If he demoralizes these people just before the election, he could still lose just as his father did.
For Congressional Republicans, the issue is trickier. They don't have the momentum and widespread unthinking support that a president will have. They will be facing many more voters back home who pay attention to things. If they support a ban, they will demoralize many of their supporters and will almost certainly lose.
For Congressional Democrats, the issue might even be trickier. There are many Democrats who represent relatively conservative, rural areas. Some of them originally supported the ban in '94 and almost lost that year because of that support. Some of them have recently won elections against Republicans who beat a Democrat in '94 because that Democrat supported the ban. They may be caught between voters to whom they promised respect for the Second Amendment and a party that is demanding their support of a permanent ban. They could be in trouble either way.
If there were any issue that could lead to the formation of a successful third party in 2006, this could be the one. If the GOP passes the ban, it will lose much of its support. Some people will quit voting for GOP candidates. Others might still vote for them but will not volunteer or contribute. Democrats who kept their promise to voters and voted against the ban may find themselves without good committee assignments or party support as the party takes revenge. Those who voted for the ban will have a hard time keeping the votes that kept them in office.
With both parties facing that vulnerability, a third party could make some progress. It would need to oppose gun control without seeming to advocate that everyone should carry M-16's down the street. It would need to oppose taxes but in a moderate way. It would need to be open to people from both sides of the abortion issue but generally lean pro-life. I think it would need to be strong against illegal immigration without appearing isolationist.
someone tell me what the hell is going on ,I'll never part from my post-ban rifles and now I hear these vpc jerks want to get rid of the whole thing.What are the chances of that happening.I really don't care about flash hiders,bayonet lugs,etc.All I care about is my hi-cap mags.What else can we do to make sure that never happens?