[Paul Ross]

This analysis could be an accurate guage of what the Administration is really thinking. But it does not change the likelihood that they are dead wrong about installing mob-democracy in this pan-arabic region. It will not change a thing. They will still adhere to the Koran. They will still oppress all other religions, and women. They will still harbor nothing but hatred for and warfare againt, the West. The basics of the vilifications against Western values have been inculcated too deep. I am not convinced that GWB's theory that the genie of democracy is able to turn these states into modern peaceful republics. Keep in mind, that Hitler came to power in a democratic Weimar Republic. I am, up to a point, willing for GWB to go ahead and try it. But we should be preparing our own people for the possibility of the failure of the scheme....and readying for the worst case scenarios...educating them as to what we really are fighting.

[The Obstinate Insomniac]

bump

[tsomer]

"... I am not convinced that GWB's theory that the genie of democracy is able to turn these states into modern peaceful republics ..."

You are absolutely right. This was a helluva good article, and a joy to read, but he leaves some questions unanswered:
What about Turkey's recent election of a hardliner? What about the population growth in Arab countries? How can he dismiss Iraq's relations with Al Qaeda? Why should we expect Saudi cooperation in this, when they come up short?

I still don't think democracy is the object because I don't think it is desirable for those societies, for the reasons you point out. I think we need to balance antagonists; that is the only dependable route to stability.

[Lion's Cub]

This analysis could be an accurate guage of what the Administration is really thinking. But it does not change the likelihood that they are dead wrong about installing mob-democracy in this pan-arabic region. It will not change a thing

I'm afraid I have to agree with you. Jordon, Turkey, and Egypt come to mind at the moment. These were the most moderate Islamic countries, which all looked promising over past decades. Now I'm not so sure about their ability to withstand the fundamentalist trends.

[Valin]

While in the short run having the radical Muslims in charge, I say let them pay retail for their beliefs.
We only have to look at what's happening in Iran to see what will happen.