Catholics may soon have the numbers in N Ireland (those fecund breeders!)

The Guardian via SMH ^ | December 18 2002 | Rosie Cowan in Belfast

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It's bad news for the Protestants. Census figures due out tomorrow could show that for the first time in the 81-year history of Northern Ireland they are in the minority. And what's worse, those fecund Catholics are younger and breeding faster.

The dawning realisation has prompted one Ulster Unionist MP to declare that Protestants should be allowed to veto a united Ireland, even if Catholic voters become the majority.

Forcing Unionists to join the republic would cause political instability which would be in no one's interest, Jeffrey Donaldson said on Monday.

But even if the census results do show a Catholic majority, the youth of the Catholic population compared to the ageing Protestant community means it could be at least 20 years before the rise in the number of Catholics translates into a voting majority.

At the same time, the simple equation of Catholicism with Irish nationalism does not take account of how many Catholics might vote to remain with Britain or Protestants to leave it.

But Thursday's revelations will be pored over and debated by politicians.

Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein's minister of education, has said his party would hold the British Government to its promise of a united Ireland, if the majority votes for it in a referendum. Another spokesman said the Unionists faced a challenge in accepting the democratically expressed will of the people and encouraging a peaceful transition.

But Mr Donaldson argued that because the suspended Stormont assembly requires separate majorities of Unionists and nationalists to pass legislation, the dual consent principle should apply to any vote on a united Ireland.

He insisted the Unionist population would not be eclipsed in the near future, but warned: "It's not in anyone's interests to force Unionists into a united Ireland.

"It would be a recipe for great instability and constitutional disaster."

Since Northern Ireland's formation in 1921, the Protestant descendants of Scottish and English planters, concentrated in the six counties to the north-east of Ireland, accounted for two-thirds of the population.

Catholics made up the other third, giving unionists a seemingly in-built majority and leading to domination and discrimination which reinforced Catholics' feelings that they were second-class citizens.

But now a mix of factors, including underestimation of Catholic numbers because of the nationalists' refusal to co-operate with previous surveys, has led some statisticians to believe that the Catholic population could be anywhere from 40 per cent to 45 per cent and Protestants somewhere between 47 per cent and 51 per cent, with other religions and the non-religious making up the rest.

Four of Northern Ireland's five cities, Belfast, Derry, Armagh and Newry, now have Catholic majorities. Only Lisburn does not. Last year there were 173,000 Catholic schoolchildren, 146,000 Protestants and 22,000 others.

[TopQuark]

I share your concern: the language is a part of our tradition and the medium through which our values are transmitted. I apologize for the error. You are much too lenient on me. however: I am a worse offender than you have described. My coordination is poor, and I often duplicate letters that are not supposed to be duplicated and, at other times, skip them altogether. This is partly because I read and post as I am doing my work, having 100-hour weeks (excuses, excuses).

Your point is well taken. It was my bad, sorry.

[freedumb2003]

I was more sympathizing and empathizing. Yes, multi-tasking will result in all sorts of oddities. I have actually typed program code into posts because I wasn't watching which window was which.

:)

[demsux]

The brits treat the Irish Catholics like shi* in what should be considered their "homeland".

The Irish economy in the South/Southwestern parts of the country is flourishing. I was there this summer and saw it with my own two eyes.

IMO, the brits ought to abdicate their "control" over the true Irish and let these people control their own destiny...they are quite able of flourishing without the help of the british "protectorate".

[Barnacle]

I always thought the island of Eire looked a bit like a Teddy Bear.

Okay. That’s fine. Let’s try another one.

Tell me what you see now.

[Norn Iron]

The Republic is quite keen to keep the North at a distance. If you looked at the ongoing activities of the loyalist and republican terrorists you will understand why. Who'd want all that grief?

[Norn Iron]

No sign of snow in the Black North. It's just like summer - mild and wet !!LOL!!

[Norn Iron]

Where did I say it was?

OK let me rephrase: GREAT BRITAIN SHOULD GET ITS DIRTY HANDS OFF OF IRELAND!

There seem to be a lot of politically illiterate posters around!! GB isn't a state.

[Cap'n Crunch]

ah, reminds me of a song..."Up the long ladder and down the short rope, to hell with king billy and God Bless the Pope!"