Posted on 12/14/2002 1:09:04 PM PST by vannrox
Title: PRC BJB Discusses Planned Space Exploration
Document Number: FBIS-CHI-2001-1204 Document Date: 03 Dec 2001 Sourceline: CPP20011204000017 Beijing Jiefangjun Bao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese 03 Dec 01 p 10 Language: Chinese
Subslug: Article by Zuo Saichun: "Soon we will land on the moon. Outline of China's Aerospace Development in the 10th Five Year Plan."
[FBIS Translated Text] Article on Development of China's Aerospace Industry during the 10th Five Year Plan
Soon We Will Land on the Moon. Outline of China's Aerospace Development in the 10th Five Year Plan
When can Chinese astronauts travel in space on the "Shenzhou?" When will China's lunar vehicle travel freely on the moon? These goals are dependent upon the successful development of aerospace technology. To commemorate the one-year anniversary of the release of the white paper, "China's Aerospace," the State Science and Engineering Commission (i.e., the National Aerospace Bureau) issued "China's Aerospace Development Outline in the 10th Five Year Plan" on 22 November. It disclosed a number of major aerospace programs to be launched in the near future. It also described the concept of preliminary research on manned flight and lunar exploration. It presented an inspirational picture of blue sky in our mind.
Eight New Satellites Shining in Space
In the 10th Five Year Plan, more than 5 billion yuan will be spent on research and development in commercial aerospace technology, as compared to 1.7 billion yuan spent in the 9th Five Year Plan. This substantial increase in funding will act as a "booster" for the development of aerospace technology.
The government has already approved the funding for the development of 8 new commercial satellites in the 10th Five Year Plan. These eight satellites are: one "Haiyang 1" satellite to scan ocean color, two "Fengyun 3" second generation polar orbit meteorological satellites, two earth-space exploration satellites, and an environmental monitoring and disaster forecast satellite system comprised of three small satellites.
The scheduled launch of "Haiyang 1" in 2002 will put an end to the history that China has no ocean satellite. It will create a new situation for us to better utilize and manage marine resources. The sea is the cradle of life. China controls approximately 3 million square kilometers of the ocean, equivalent to approximately one third of its landmass. For the first time, aerospace technology is employed in marine development in China by an ocean monitoring satellite. It is of great importance in terms of protecting China's rights to its marine resources, safeguarding its marine environment, developing its marine resources, and alleviating potential marine disasters. The primary mission of "Haiyang 1" is to scan for chlorophyll, suspended sand, and pollutants. It will be a preliminary exploration of our "domestic assets."
China's ecology is brittle. It is one of a few nations in the world often hit by natural disasters. In recent years, problems such as dust storm, red tide, acid rain, and ozone layer depletion arise very frequently. Losses from such disasters are mounting. To this end, China Aerospace Technology Group and the State Environmental Protection Bureau are setting up a network of 3 small satellites to provide real time monitoring of the environment and analysis of disasters. Through high technology, we can minimize our losses on the ground.
New "Changzheng" (Long March) Rocket
The "Changzheng" series of carrier rocket has been used to launch various spacecraft, including "Dongfanghong," "Haoxing," and "Shenzhou." It has been involved in 64 launches, and is a workhorse for China's aerospace industry. In this new century, the "Changzheng" rocket will embark in a new long march.
In the 10th Five Year Plan, up to next 20 years, more than 62 percent of the satellite launching market worldwide will involve a payload greater than 4 to 5 tons. Large satellites are catalysts for the development of new generation of carrier rockets.
Currently, preliminary research on these new generation of carrier rockets has already begun. According to an authority in rockets, China's new generation of carrier rockets are built on three modules, on top of existing technology, i.e., the 5 m module, 3.35 m module, and 2.25 m module. By using a combination of such modules, a new family of rockets can be assembled just like putting blocks together. By shuffling the "blocks" around, it is possible to deliver satellites of various weights into their orbits, regardless of weight and number. Because the diameter of the rocket is larger, the number of stages is correspondingly fewer. Consequently, it is possible to reduce the number of rocket engines, the number of ignitions, and the number of stage separations. The mechanical structure is simplified, and the number of single point failures is decreased substantially. The reliability of rockets will be at world-class level.
These new generation of rockets to be developed in the 10th Five Year Plan use 120-ton liquid oxygen/diesel engines and 50-ton liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen engines. A whole series of rockets will be created by choosing a combination of modules of various diameters. These new generation of carrier rockets will have high thrust, zero toxicity, zero pollution, low cost, and high reliability. It will lift China to the top in the worldwide carrier rockets market, and will meet the demand for the next 30 to 50 years.
China's Astronauts Are on Standby
On 20 November 1999, China's first experimental space shuttle, the "Shenzhou," lifted off from the ground. It unveiled China's space shuttle program. At the beginning of this new century, various media and Internet websites were speculating that significant progress was made in manned space flight technology with "Shenzhou 2."
Since key technological hurdles are being resolved, China is on the verge of announcing its first astronaut.
China's manned space program contains 7 systems. The astronaut system is a complex medicine and engineering system centered on astronauts. It involves many important disciplines such as aerospace life science and aerospace biomedical engineering. As early as the 1960s, China established a special research institute for aerospace biomedical engineering. Various research projects, such as environmental control, life support assurance, selection and rigorous training of astronauts, space suit design, and development of food and drinks in space, are underway in order to provide all kinds of "life shield" for Chinese astronauts in space.
According to China's space program, it is a three-step process to send astronauts into space. The first step is to launch a few unmanned space shuttles. Then, launch a manned space shuttle based on the experience to safely deliver astronauts to a near-earth orbit to observe the earth and conduct a few scientific experiments. Then, return them safely back to earth. This will represent a historic breakthrough for China. In the second step, in addition to continuing earth observation and space experiments, the key objectives include space walk, docking, and launching a long-term manned space laboratory that can fly independently. As soon as possible, China will build a large space system to solve the problem of large-scale space utilization. The third step is to build a large manned space station.
In the 10th Five Year Plan, research and development on manned space engineering will pick up pace. The goal is to send Chinese astronauts to space in the early part of this century. Currently, a number of astronauts have been selected among pilots. They are being trained for a variety of purposes. As soon as a safe and reliable space shuttle is constructed, they can fly into space.
Lunar Exploration Has Set Sail
Although the mankind is looking far deep into the universe 12 billion light years away, and despite that spacecrafts had landed on Mars, many nations are still focusing on the moon as a target for space exploration. In "China's Aerospace Development Outline for the 10th Five Year Plan," "preliminary research on space exploration with primary focus on the moon" is placed at an important position.
The moon is the closest heavenly body to earth. It not only has unique resources for exploration, but also is an excellent base and sentry for human to explore the outer space. In the early 1990s, Min Guirong, a famous aerospace satellite expert and a member of the Academy, proposed to launch lunar satellites. In 1997, three Academy members, i.e., Yang Jiaxi, Wang Dayan, and Chen Yunfang, published the article, "Recommendations to the Development of China's Lunar Exploration Technology," in the 863 Program.
China's lunar exploration program will be divided into several stages. In 1998, a project to study "the overall design and key technology decomposition of lunar exploratory robot" was approved by an expert group. This started our lunar vehicle development work. A lunar vehicle is a lunar exploratory robot. There are two kinds, i.e., manned and remote controlled. China's research effort was focused on the latter. Its primary missions include the following: understanding the formation and evolution of volcanoes, gorges, and surface of the moon, monitoring solar radiation, solar wind, and meteor activities on the lunar surface, and conducting a comprehensive survey and analysis of lunar rocks by performing heating experiments on all elements and sampling specimens for He-3 determination. The lunar vehicle design is a complex systems engineering project that involves a variety of scientific disciplines, such as mechanical engineering, robotics, automatic machining, and artificial intelligence. According to our understanding, China's lunar vehicle technology has reached a certain standard. The State Aerospace Bureau and the European Space Agency officially kicked off the "Double Star" space exploration program recently. The focus is on the deep space exploration, primarily on the moon. It won't be long before Chinese are walking on the moon.
[Description of Source: Beijing Jiefangjun Bao (Internet Version - WWW) in Chinese -- daily newspaper of the General Political Department of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), reporting on a wide range of military affairs]
...they'll sure be surprised when they go to start the ole lunar rover!
The one I know most about is asteroid mining, which will pay for itself and be highly profitable to boot. Another one that I haven't analyzed from an economic perspective is lunar He3. Yet another is orbiting power stations, which wouldn't be competitive with natural gas and oil at this time, but would be an adjunct to asteroid mining.
Point is, some space development is simple spending programs in hopes of getting some science back. Other space development can be highly profitable business. We need to examine space development in more detail, it's not all the same.
Yeah...whatever.
The cost of the Apollo project, in "then-year" dollars, was approximately $27 billion. For reference, Eisenhower's national highway system cost $100 billion.
Assuming a six-percent rate of inflation since 1969, The cost today would be about $184 billion. At 3% inflation, it would be $71 billon. This does not consider the immense advances in technology which would permit it to be done more cheaply. On the other hand it does not consider that most of the infrastructure (supplier base, etc.) have vanished because they were starved to death by the end of Apollo. So I'm calling it a push.
Anyhow, "half a trillion dollars" is an idiotic statement.
--Boris
If you follow the CPI (and what else have we got to work with, really?), $27 billion in 1969 translates to about $132 billion today. By way of contrast, the Manhattan Project cost a little shy of $1.9 billion, through the end of 1945, in 1945 dollars, or about $18.8 billion in 2002 dollars....
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