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To: Cicero
Moore's Law assumes that when the time comes, some bright engineer will invent something new. If Intel doesn't do it, someone else will.

Moore's law shows the folly of projecting exponential growth. Nothing can continue to double forever. Exponential growth is a popular tool for scaremongers such as population explosion, oil shortages, and even global warming. Of course the electronics world was gonna run into physical limits to Moore's Law.

14 posted on 12/11/2002 8:16:17 AM PST by Always Right
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To: Always Right
Moore's law shows the folly of projecting exponential growth. Nothing can continue to double forever. Exponential growth is a popular tool for scaremongers such as population explosion, oil shortages, and even global warming. Of course the electronics world was gonna run into physical limits to Moore's Law.

Expontial growth has been correct for 30 years, for Moore's Law and for population. My first computer program, in '72 or '73, was a BASIC program that projected world population at various exponential growth rates to 2000. It was dead on accurate, 30 years later.

Of course, you are right, in that exponential growth projections are not accurate FOREVER. In Moore's case maybe not for 40 years.

Personally, I think they'll solve the leakage problem. They'll definitely solve the cooling program (two distinct problems). And I think Moore's law is good for at least another 10 years.

63 posted on 12/11/2002 10:59:37 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner
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