Senator John Edwards (D-NC): To Run or Not to Run...

WASHINGTON--U.S. Sen. John Edwards has been flirting with a presidential bid for well over a year. Now things are about to get serious. Within weeks, the North Carolina Democrat is expected to take the first formal step toward a 2004 White House run by creating a committee that will let him raise money and scour the country in search of support. In some ways, the move would hardly be surprising. Ever since he burst onto the political scene in 1998, the former trial lawyer has been pegged as a rising star who could one day make a credible run for the nation's highest office.

At a time when President Bush is riding high in the polls, does it make sense for a still largely unknown freshman senator to gamble on a long-shot bid for president?

"In politics, you really should grab opportunities when they arrive rather than try to plot things out," said Andrew Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University. "If you think the opportunity is there, you should seize it."

Although he says he is still weighing his options, Edwards appears likely to join a sizable field of Democrats actively jockeying for the nomination. The rationale for Edwards' run rests largely on two premises: that the party's best shot in 2004 is a fresh-faced nominee and that a candidate from the South has the best chance to beat Bush.

If he moves ahead and things go badly, he could always pull back and seek re-election to his Senate seat in 2004. But it's not clear how welcoming Tar Heel voters would be. On the other hand, sitting out the 2004 presidential race offers no guarantee of a better shot four years later. Another Democrat could beat Bush in 2004, effectively putting other Democrats on hold until 2012.

Edwards has been laying groundwork for 2004 almost since Bush's inauguration. His initial trip to Iowa, home of the first presidential caucuses, came little more than a month after Bush arrived in Washington.

Since then, Edwards has enjoyed a remarkable run of positive press, has impressed party elites and has proved to be a more formidable fund-raiser than most expected. He is among a half-dozen Democrats routinely cited by the national media as having a real shot at the nomination.

Still, analysts suggest an awful lot would have to break his way for someone in Edwards' position to win.

"There's no model for it happening," said Michael Munger, chairman of Duke University's political science department.

For more than a year, boosters have talked up Edwards' candidacy as a way for Democrats to make a clean break with the 2000 election debacle. Rather than re-argue whether Al Gore should have won Florida -- or his home state of Tennessee -- Democrats could focus on the future.

Edwards, so the boosters' argument goes, is an articulate messenger who can appeal to soccer moms and NASCAR fans alike and is still new enough to Washington to run credibly as an outsider. The argument got a boost in last month's mid-term election, in which Democrats lost seats in both the Senate and House.

The setbacks dampened enthusiasm for presidential bids by two of Washington's most entrenched Democrats, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt. Whether doubts about Gore, Daschle and Gephardt prompt the party to embrace Edwards is another matter. But none of the Democrats who spent the past year jockeying for attention has emerged as an obvious choice -- and all face questions about their viability.

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, for example, is a war veteran and seasoned lawmaker with ample foreign-policy experience. But Kerry, who announced a week ago that he is forming a presidential committee, must prove he's not just another Northeastern liberal.

Despite the advantages, being the fresh face presents tremendous challenges -- not the least of which is making sure voters know you exist.

That reality was underscored in a poll last month of 600 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary.

Not one picked Edwards as the first-choice presidential candidate. What's more, despite Edwards' visiting the Granite State three times in the past year, only 20 percent said they know who he is. Still, it's worth noting that at the same stage in the 1992 presidential cycle, the same poll reported only 13 percent of likely Democratic voters were familiar with an Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton. And, for now, the most important people to court are key activists and fund-raisers -- not the general public.

So Edwards has time -- but not much. Voting in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary starts in little more than a year, in January 2004. Some other states, including South Carolina and Missouri, are moving their primaries to early February 2004, creating a front-loaded calendar likely to produce a Democratic nominee by the next spring.

If Edwards takes a serious stab at the nomination, one story line is certain to be: Is he ready?

Supporters point out that Edwards would have spent as many years in the Senate -- six -- as George W. Bush did in the Texas governor's mansion prior to his arrival in Washington. Bush, of course, had a familiarity with the job that came with having a father who served four years as president and eight as vice president.

For better or worse, most other likely Democratic contenders have spent decades in elected office and are far better-versed in the nuances of public policy.

In an effort to close the gravitas gap, Edwards delivered a series of speeches this fall on foreign policy, the economy and education. The addresses included plenty of criticism of Bush along with some bold proposals, such as offering a free year of college, creating a new domestic intelligence agency and trimming the federal government by 10 percent.

The speeches were generally well-received by their intended audiences -- including party elites and political reporters -- but they also underscored how much Edwards' views are still a work in progress.

Edwards' viability as a candidate has been bolstered by a media buzz over the past couple of years. Time magazine dubbed him "The Democrats' New Golden Boy," Vanity Fair called him "the perfect politician" and the December GQ has a seven-page spread on "the next Bubba."

All the hype has a downside, however. There is a growing chorus of Democratic activists and others who have seen Edwards in person for the first time and come away feeling he doesn't live up to the billing.

That sentiment was voiced after an Edwards appearance in Connecticut last month at a convention of trial lawyers -- a natural Edwards constituency.

Norm Pattis, a writer for the weekly Connecticut Law Tribune, put it this way: "Hundreds of trial lawyers from around the state were in New Haven ... looking for presidential timber, perhaps a mighty oak to stand tall for the jury system and the people's right to hold accountable corporations, doctors and the government. What was on display was an acorn."

Coming months will provide a crucial test of Edwards' ability to articulate ideas -- and of how they are greeted by more attuned party activists and a more skeptical media corps that is beginning to pounce on gaffes or signs of greenness.

One constant in Edwards' repertoire is his upbringing in the small mill town of Robbins -- and many in the party view it as one of his greatest strengths.

Since John F. Kennedy's assassination in 1963, the only Democrats elected president have shared a common trait: their Southern heritage. Lyndon Johnson hailed from Texas, Jimmy Carter grew up in a small peanut town in Georgia and Bill Clinton came from a place called Hope, Ark.

Some Democrats think the only way they can win back the White House in 2004 is with a candidate who connects in the South -- and who can carry a Southern state or two on Election Day. That's a tall order: In recent years, Democrats have found it increasingly difficult to compete in the region, where more conservative white voters have aligned with Republicans.

"You have to appeal to the electorate by virtue of common values and culture," said Doug Teper, a Democrat in the the Georgia legislature who is active in national politics. "Clinton succeeded through his appeal to Southern sensibilities."

Of course, Gore proved that simply being from the South is not enough. In 2000, Bush swept every state in the region -- including Gore's home state of Tennessee.

Some, like Teper, think he has that potential. But many pundits in North Carolina have a hard time envisioning Edwards carrying his own state, let alone others in the region.

The last time North Carolina voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was 1976, when Carter ran from neighboring Georgia. Clinton came close in 1992, losing to the elder President Bush by less than a percentage point.

But in 1996, the margin widened to five points against Clinton when he ran for re-election against former U.S. Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas. And in 2000, George W. Bush beat Gore by 13 points in the Tar Heel state.

"I don't want to suggest that Bush is unbeatable here," said Ferrell Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "But it would be very tough to knock him out. ... Edwards will have to be something more than a favorite son. This is a state where one in five voters have moved in during the last decade. To them, he's not a favorite son."

Some of Edwards' allies argue, however, that his 1998 Senate race demonstrated an appeal that would carry over to a presidential contest, if Edwards were the nominee. His message of better schools, more affordable health care and tax cuts targeted at the middle class is geared to voters now drifting to the GOP.

"I think he would be able to carry North Carolina," said U.S. Rep. Mel Watt, a Charlotte Democrat. "He certainly would be expected to carry North Carolina."

At a minimum, Edwards would force Bush to devote time and resources to states, such as North Carolina and Georgia, that he took for granted in 2000. That in turn could leave Bush more vulnerable in key states such as Florida (technically part of the South but viewed as a separate world by political strategists).

If Democrats do decide to embrace a Southerner, Edwards may be the only real choice. Of those who spent the past year aggressively laying groundwork to run, he is the only one from the region. Until last month, some viewed Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes as a dark-horse contender. But voters turned him out of office on Election Day.

That was just one troubling sign in the South for Democrats, who also lost the governor's mansion in South Carolina as well as key U.S. Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. The results also underscore the gamble Edwards faces if he continues to aggressively pursue the presidential nomination.

His Senate seat is also up for re-election in 2004. Heartened by Elizabeth Dole's decisive victory last month,Republicans are likely to put up a strong challenger even if Edwards reins in his presidential ambitions and seeks re-election. Edwards won with 51 percent of the vote in 1998, and incumbents traditionally are most vulnerable in their first re-election campaign.

No one can predict exactly how Tar Heel voters will respond to Edwards' presidential aspirations. But most analysts agree that at a some point he damages his prospects for re-election.

In theory, Edwards could run in the early presidential nominating contests in 2004, gauge his fate and still meet the February 2004 filing deadline for Senate. But that path is politically perilous.

"The more time he appears to be focusing his attention outside the state, the more it hurts him," Duke's Munger said. "It's certainly not a lock that he would win re-election. But then again, he's a charismatic person. He's got charisma you can't buy, and he may be able to overcome it."

Or he may not -- in which case talk of an Edwards' presidency would probably be over.

"If he loses his Senate seat," Guillory said, "it makes it very difficult to return to presidential politics."

John Edwards is a huge threat and doesn't have the baggage of McCain (Unknown-NM), Kerry or Daschle. He's tied in lock, stock and barrel to his former trial lawyer cronies, he's Southern and charismatic and could be the sleeper candidate for the Dems come '04. The plus would be that he would basically abdicate his seat if he spent his time running, which would be an enormous boon for the great state of North Carolina.

Senator Edwards, please run for president and allow us North Carolinians to elect a senator who will truly look after the needs of the Tarheel State, instead of their own selfish aspirations.

He can't even carry his own weight in North Carolina. Imazing how the media is ignoring his poll numbers because they are desperate to latch on to ONE Democratic candidate. Edwards is a dweeb with an extremely low poll rating. He has the personality of a pencil and thinks he can run on his looks. But the voters won't be fooled again like they were with Clinton. I would worry more about Kerry than about Edwards. Kerry has the money and power that Edwards will never have. He also will get the nod from the DNC.

When I've seen him speak, he is incredibly vapid, shallow...has more hairdo than John Kerry. It must have been some really ditzy female jurors that made this guy rich...but there are a lot of ditzy females among the Democrats.

I hope the blinking turkey will run, but he won't win the nomination. The country would be shamed again if another phony sleaze bag lawyer become president. The great con artist can't get recognized, only the liberal media know anything about this jerk.

Blinky who tied with Rev Al Sharpton at 4% of the voters? This guy seriously needs to give up and just get ready for retirement at home

Senator Edwards, please run for president and allow us North Carolinians to elect a senator who will truly look after the needs of the Tarheel State

North Carolina allows one to simultaneously run for Senate and President (or VP). So Edwards could basically pull a Lieberman - lose the national race, but keep his Senate seat (were he to be reelected to the latter, or course).

True, but I think this will work against Senator Edward's re-election bid to the Senate. Senator Edwards is not very popular with North Carolinians as it is.

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