[KQQL]

FROM:http://conservativejournal.cjb.net/

Two Early Rumors - 6:35 PM

These are only rumors... they don’t mean much, they may mean nothing. Take them for what they are worth (not much) while waiting for some real numbers to come in later on in the evening.

Terrell is said to be picking up between 64 and 69 percent of the white vote, a high number, but not necessarily a safe one. Earlier in the day, I mentioned a New York Times article in which one source said that if Terrell can pick up seventy percent of the white vote she can survive without the black vote. Since she’s below that at this moment, she’s going to need at least a small chunk of the black vote.


( If this is true ..get ready for Terrell win by 5%+ win......)

[Torie]

.7 x 75% = 52.5%.

[Torie]

The midpoint between 64 and 69 is 66.5. 66.5% x 75% = 49.8%. It doesn't seem like the black vote will be in excess of 25%.

[arielb]

a win is a win..after all Bush won by much less than 1% of the vote in Florida and we still love him :)

[laconic]

This appears off a bit; Terrell does not need 70 percent of the white vote unless there's an extraordinary black vote. Blacks comprise 29 percent of the potential LA electorate but at most in the past, have hit 26 percent of the total voting when David Duke ran for governor. Assuming the black vote is again at 26 percent (again, unlikely), if Terrell gets 66 percent of the 74 percent of those voting who are white, she gets 48.9 percent of the vote. She then only needs 4 percent of the black vote, or .04 x .26 = 1.1 percent to add to her 48.9 to get a majority.