[No dems 2002]

Here's my take on Texas. Would love to hear your comments.

[Theodore R.]

This is very strong analysis on your part. I suspect that many TX Anglos simply did not like the Sanchez presented over and over on paid ads. It's like the story of the dog food -- no matter how nutritious, dogs won't eat it, and consumers therefore won't buy it. Voters just did not buy Sanchez.

Other tidbits: Sanchez got 89 percent of the vote in his home county of Webb; Perry, about 67 percent in his home county of Haskell. Nearly 2,000 Webb Co. voters who backed Sanchez switched to David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor. These were Republicans voting for the hometown candidate for governor but not for John Sharp. Moreover, Congressman Ron Paul actually led the Republican ticket in Victoria Co., outpolling favorite son John Sharp by nearly 2,000 raw votes. Apparently statewide relatively few voters supported BOTH Perry and Sharp, which had been an expected ticket-splitting possibility. There were more Sanchez-Dewhurst split tickets than many thought.

[Slyfox]

I know of a few well-known liberals who got tired of the landscape and
moved to New Mexico in 1996. Place sure does smell better around these
here parts. Kicking butt ain't just for sport, it's a full-time occupation.

[Cicero]

Excellent analysis. I speak in relative ignorance, but I think the Hispanic vote may be more important than you think. Republicans did better among Hispanics in Florida and Texas than they did in California, even though a Hispanic was running in Texas. That's because they like the compassionate conservative message represented by Jeb Bush and George Bush.

Pete Wilson, on the other hand, was a clumsy fool who represented the worst of all worlds. He was a pro-abort RINO who managed to give the impression that he was against Hispanics because he wanted to conciliate conservative racists but was unwilling to give them anything on abortion. At least that's the way the press successfully painted him, and it has alienated California Hispanics ever since. No real conservatism or compassion was visible anywhere in the Wilson campaign.

The best conservative candidates show genuine warmth and caring, as did Ronald Reagan. Those are the kind of people Hispanics are likely to vote for in place of the Democrats, who claim to be for the underdog but chiefly support abortion and sexual perversion--not attractive issues for most Hispanic or Asian voters.

[double_down]

Excellent analysis! Now, with significant majorities in the state houses will they draw up a new congressional redistricting plan that will more fairly represent the state of Texas? Since the court implemented a plan for the 2002 elections the state legislature has the opportunity to draw the lines such that the republicans could pick up 5+ seats in the US House. Will this happen this year?

[alrea]

for one thing, hysteria and racial polarisation has taken over the democratic approach to Southern politics

bump

[friendly]

A once in a lifetime chance for tort reform, before the crooked lawyers and judges drive the last homeowner's insurance and last Rio Grande Valley MD out of business.

[Dog Gone]

Hispanics are more integrated in Texas than in some other states. Since the hispanic presence in Texas pre-dates the Alamo, you don't see nearly as much racial prejudice here. Hispanics are simply Texans and nobody thinks much about it.

That's why hispanics are not a monolithic voting block in the state. I expect Orlando Sanchez will be the next mayor of Houston, and he's a conservative Republican.

[GOPcapitalist]

Kirk?s appeal ran much deeper than the average black democrat, because he was the former popular mayor of Dallas, a predominantly Republican (and white) electoral base.

That is a myth promoted by the Kirk campaign. Dallas proper is not a conservative city anymore. It's just another urban democrat ghetto. Throw in all the suburbs of the metroplex and yeah, the Dallas area leans conservative republican. But Ron Kirk was NEVER elected mayor of all of that - only the Democrat infested city of Dallas proper.

[tarawa]

ping

[gcruse]

This is a very professional job.  Well done.

Comment:  " In Alabama, Georgia or South Carolina, their idea for defeating the dominant GOP"
                  needs to be "Georgia and South Caroina..."

[MattinNJ]

bttt for later read. Thanks

[jim_trent]

Sounds good to me. Don't forget Nebraska's one-party tilt. I am happy to say that in the last 15 years we went from almost totally Demoncrats on the national, state, and larger cities to almost totally Republican.

Interestingly, the only thing that changed was that the Republicans decided to quit splitting the Republican ticket wiht partisan bickering. When the primaries are over, the losing Republican pledges support to the winning Republican. Before that, the only reason Demoncrats won was because Republicans all too often continued the fight after the primaries.

[Dark Wing]

A Texas political analysis for your consideration.

[montag813]

Now that the GOP controls the full House and Senate there, can we expect new redistricting moves to eliminate the Democrat edge in the U.S. House?

[deport]

Kirk’s appeal ran much deeper than the average black democrat, because he was the former popular mayor of Dallas, a predominantly Republican (and white) electoral base.

Good over all analysis... but just to give you some stats on the City of Dallas and not Dallas County. You don't fly a state flag so I'm not sure where you are from but the City of Dallas isn't the predominantly Republican white electoral base that is protrayed in the media. The City of Dallas from the 2000 Census looks like the following:

1,188,580 - population
..417,401 - white - 35.1%
..309,547 - black - 26.04%
..422,587 - Hispanic - 35.5%
....39,045 - other - 3.2%

City of Dallas

[Holden Magroin]

I think Hispanic population growth will eventually end Republican dominance in Texas. Texas Republicans are looking at things through a rosy lens if they think otherwise. California is Exhibit A.

[MeekOneGOP]

bump to come back and finish reading, beginning at....

So how does all this fit in to Texas? First of all, I want to emphasise that....

[Redbob]

One minor correction, in the interest of accuracy:
Rick Perry was elected, not re-elected, governor.
This will be his first term as an elected governor.