Bin Laden tape a fake, Swiss lab says

The Toronto Star (Canada) ^ | Nov. 28, 2002. 06:23 PM | AP

[Clemenza]

I think I heard about it being a fraud on Paul Harvey.

Personally, I always thought he was dead or very, very ill.

[altayann]

I've been doing a little reading about that Swiss agency, and this is what I've found.

The basis for claiming that the tape is a fake is that they
ran the tape against one of their voice verification programs, using previous tapes of Bin Laden's voice as baseline results.

19 of 20 times the program failed to recognize the voice on the audio tape as being Osama's. That's the basis for their claim that the tape is a fake.

The institute has also apparently stated that their test can't be considered conclusive because of the limited number of recordings of Bin Laden's voice.. So keeping that in mind, and considering the current state of the art of voice recognition, I personally wouldn't view it as proof positive that the latest tape is a fake.

In fact, I'd say the reason it's been getting some attention is because quite a few folks in the media would like it to be true.

[Angelus Errare]

This is my belief as well.

Interestingly enough, the Institute of Linguistics and Phonetics in Paris has apparently run their own study of the tape and concluded that it is genuine according to the Guardian (or L'Express, if you read French). This is three independent studies that contradict the findings of the Swiss researchers, if you count those performed by the BBC and the Kyoto News Agency when the news about the tape first broke.

That being said, I notice that this getting a great deal more fanfare in Europe than in the US (though that may change over the next week, depending on what occurs). While I'm sure that elements of the Euro press would absolutely love for President Bush to be made out as a liar and US intelligence to be painted as fools (it's great ammunition for the anti-American European left), I think that most of the American media has decided that they don't understand enough about voice verification technology to spin things one way or another, only to have the results come back the opposite and get a black eye from their competitors. Or perhaps the New York Times simply hasn't covered this story enough for it to merit special attention in the American press.

In any case, I still think that we need to wait for more data before jumping to any conclusions. Dead or alive, it doesn't really change the War on Terror, anymore than it does anything for those killed in Kenya yesterday.

[Bush2000]

19 of 20 times the program failed to recognize the voice on the audio tape as being Osama's. That's the basis for their claim that the tape is a fake.

Identifying anyone's voice in a digital recording is essentially an exercise in pattern-matching. The effectiveness of the pattern-matching algorithm depends on a wide variety of factors, including the presence of background noise, whether the original voice recording was subjected to filtering/tampering prior to distribution, and even varying levels of stress in the subject's voice. As such, voice pattern-matching is an imprecise science; if anything, the best that it will yield is a statistical probability that a voice belongs to a particular subject, not a definitive match.

Consequently, I don't put a lot of faith in the folks who say the tape is a definitive match. My guess is that it's a fake. Bin Laden is (or was) a megalomaniac. He believes (or believed) himself to be messianic; therefore, I find it highly unlikely that he would choose audiotape as the source of any transmission. His ego is too big. And I don't buy the argument that he avoided video because it would reveal clues to his location. If Bin Laden were to appear in front of a white sheet with no other background showing, it's highly unlikely that our CIA analysts could pinpoint his location. Nope. Bin Laden is dead.

[patriciaruth]

Hey, thanks for that article on the Russians claiming to have some of Hitler's remains.

Very interesting. The history books I've read said his followers burned his body on his instructions.

The Russian version reads like Shirley McLaine's first movie with Hitchcock directing. Can't remember exact title, close to "Something about Harry."

[rewrite]

Nope, like this,"He's dead again, Jim!"

[samtheman]

I won't believe he is alive until I see him holding up a copy of today's New York Times with today's date on it.

I share your opinion. For him to show his face now would be a huge boost to his scumbag supporters around the world. He doesn't do it. Therefore, he's dead.

[VRW Conspirator]

He's dead again..

Does that mean he can vote now...er...twice?

[PoorMuttly]

Good thing ! I thought for a minute this Osama guy I've got chained in the basement got his hands on a tape recorder.

Whew.

[cpdiii]

If Bin Ladin (scum bag) were alive and could be proved to be alive without any doubt it would give his supporters a huge moral boost. If the scum bag were alive (he is not) he could make a video discussing current events and then show them drawing blood from his arm. The video and blood could be mailed or delivered to any US Embassy. DNA testing and a high quality video that showed no evidence of tampering would prove without any doubt the scum bag is alive. If the sample were keep chilled the cells in the blood would still be viable and prove this was a recent blood draw. He could also send in a finger print. The Saudies will have it on file.

Bin Ladin is Dead
Bin Ladin has been dead
Bin Ladin will stay dead and that is good.

His Body was either incinerated by our bombs or buried and hidden by his followers whom did not want the world to know he is dead. I prefer to think his death was filled with horror and pain but knowing the lethality of our precision guided weapons I would think his death was quick but one can always hope it was not.

[samtheman]

If Bin Ladin (scum bag) were alive and could be proved to be alive without any doubt it would give his supporters a huge moral boost. If the scum bag were alive (he is not) he could make a video discussing current events

The only alternative to what you suggest is that he's alive but plastic-surgery-altered. But that's almost the same as being dead. If he's such a chicken-shit as to get his face altered --- while urging his followers to strap on belt-bombs --- he's as dead to "the cause" as if he were smoldering at the bottom of some Tora Bora cave.