TARGET: Tom Tancredo (Warned "never to darken the door of the White House again.")

By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.

Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.

The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).

"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.

Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.

Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."

Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.

Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.

"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.

Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.

While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.

"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.

Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.

Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.

"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."

Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.

Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.

Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.

"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."

Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.

Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.

"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."

Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.

"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.

It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.

But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.

With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.

The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."

And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.

But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.

"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.

After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.

[I may not go to as many whacko web sites as you do, but if you believe that George W. Bush doesn't have America first in his plans, you're worse than any liberal ever. Perhaps it is YOU who should take a look at who you're hanging out with. ]

Well, first of all this is the 'Whacko Website' where I spend 99.9% of my reading time. The only others are Lucianne, and I read Drudge. Occasionally listen to Rush and a local talk show on the Dallas station. Sorry to burst you bubble, but no far out sites for me. Now I do talk with people of all walks of life, all ages, all ethnicity, varied political beliefs and most of them are also concerned. The only ones not are of the 'My President right or wrong' mindset and that's OK too.

My opinion is just that my opinion based on what I have seen him do and say. Now I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't divine what he has in mind for America - but leaving the borders open post 9/11, giving 'tolerance' lessons to Americans, letting the AG threaten us, criticizing Christian religious leaders at the behest of the Arab leaders and now he is going to bring in more to teach them of our country - that doesn't sound like America first, to me. As I said, I don't have a crystal ball, I just know what I hear and see.

If you know something I don't, I would be happy to hear, because whether you believe it or not, I want to be totally wrong. I love this country and I want it to continue.

I think may the problem is that you're LOOKING for something to bash Bush with.

One case in point, this statement:

criticizing Christian religious leaders at the behest of the Arab leaders

Got anything to back that up with, other than "what you've seen?"

Tancredo has been one of the loudest voices calling for control of the borders. I believe he was on O'Reilly a few days ago as well. He has MUCH public support which conflicts with the Presidents agenda.

Tancredo will not challenge Bush in primaries.

Bush is pressuring Tancredo to cool his jets. It's that simple.

Pardon me if I don't take a pollster's word for ANYTHING. We'll soon see what his constituents thinks of him.

BTW, you do realize, don't you, that this "article" is based ONLY on what Tancredo says happened at the White House, don't you? I don't see any other source in there from the Bush White House, do you?

If you think he was supposed to have solved this problem in 20 months in office with a war on and a hostile Senate,

How did the war get started in the first place?! The idea that Bush couldnt do anything at all is silly.

I have not condemned Bush. If he starts doing his job as you say then I will be happy. If he gets rid of the IRS and the income tax then I will be even happier.

I guess we are in wait and see mode again. Something better happen fast but I have a bad feeling about it.

"BTW, you do realize, don't you, that this "article" is based ONLY on what Tancredo says happened at the White House, don't you? I don't see any other source in there from the Bush White House, do you? "

LOL!

I would LOVE for the Whitehouse to respond to this article. PLEASE.

If you think most Americans do not want to control the borders then you are, well, deluding yourself.

Tancredo has always been prominent in his position and his constituents voted OVERWHELMINGLY to put him back in office.

That is the most important poll. Or do you think Tancredo "fixed" the votes in his election the way Democrats do?

Bwaahahahaha! Herr Rove has him scrubbed, and he's dead meat. His 100% ACU rating last year and 99% lifetime doesn't mean spit
--snip--

Welcome to the real world. To change a system one has to work his way to the top. Any idiot at the bottom dumb enough to try to defy those at the top, will find those at the top will squash him like a bug.

Sorry, my impression of the real world is that the founders created a government consisting of three branches; Executive, Legislative, and Judicial with a balance of powers to keep each other in check. They did not create a banana republic dictatorship where the guy at the top squashes anybody who doesn't go along with him "like a bug". Hopefully, President Bush and his administration don't see things this way (and I'm not saying they do), but if they do maybe the peace people are correct and we need a regime change at home. Party politics are one thing, but they do not justify corrupting the Constitutional check that the Legislative branch (specifically the House -- the voice of the people), has over the President.

"I said I don't QUOTE pollsters....it's not quite the same."

Wrong! You said:

" Pardon me if I don't take a pollster's word for ANYTHING. We'll soon see what his constituents thinks of him."

Therefore you do not believe them when they say most Americans want the borders defended from illegal immigration. His constituents already voted for him. They SUPPORT his position in opposition to President Bush.

Therefore you do not believe them when they say most Americans want the borders defended from illegal immigration.

Let me get this straight: you are so twisted you actually believe that if I say I don't take a pollsters word for anything that YOU claim that I am saying his constituents are liars?

Man, you look like an idiot saying that. The way you have it worded it looks like Tancredo's constituents told pollsters that THEY believe most Americans want the borders closed.

Again, show me where I said I don't believe in defending our borders -- I'd prefer it if you could do it with my OWN words, not something you've ginned up. No deductions. My own words, please.

BTW, that's one of the most convoluted answers I've ever seen on FR; does it occur to you is you have to do such linguistic gymnastics to defend yourself, you don't have much of a defense.

Something better happen fast but I have a bad feeling about it.

The Department of Homeland Security is happening, and I believe it will be used to effect legal and illegal immigration reform in a way we all wouldn't have believed possible.

Time will tell.

"BTW, that's one of the most convoluted answers I've ever seen on FR; does it occur to you is you have to do such linguistic gymnastics to defend yourself, you don't have much of a defense. "

ROTFLMBO! I just quoted YOUR comments back to you! LOL (too funny...)

I'm howlin' now....

My first allegiance is to this country and the quality of my life here, not to George Bush or anybody else. In the event anybody, and that means ANYBODY, is destructive to that priority, I'll say so. As such, Bush's view on economics are destructive. His cozyintg up to Islam is destructive. His tendency toward opening up our borders to what I consider to be an invasion is destructive. His failure to bring accountability to the Clintons is destructive. His failure to impose accountability for the events at Waco is destructive. I have a longer list.

If God comes to earth and says otherwise, I'll tell him he's wrong. That's the way I run my life. It's a matter of personal integrity. If someone doesn't like it, I don't care. I won't let other people, including people such as you, run and corrupt my life.

RLK, Perhaps you are familiar with this quote:

"Let this be the distinctive mark of an American that in cases of commotion, he enlists himself under no man's banner, inquires for no man's name, but repairs to the standard of the laws. Do this, and you need never fear anarchy or tyranny. Your government will be perpetual."
--Thomas Jefferson: Manuscript, 1801?

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