If Cheney isnt the VP in '04, I don't think it will be Rice-- she's not ready for the #2 position yet.Don't get me wrong: I think Rice is great as NSA, but what else has she done? She's not ready for the jump to VP. Perhaps SecState or Senate first? She's got a good future in the long-term, but in '04, I don't think she has the history to be ready to be VP.
My choice right now would be Guiliani. Being mayor of NYC is perhaps larger than being governor of a small midwestern state (say, Arkansas???). He's got cross-over appeal: in NY, Democrats outnumber Republicans significantly (2-1 in NY state, I think). Furthermore, post-9/11, his stock has risen considerably -- across the nation. How many people has he campaigned for this year? A lot of Republicans remember the favors he did for them-- and he's got a lot of capital. He and the White House were in close coordination.
Just my two cents worth.