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Why Doug Forrester, R-NJ, LOST and LOST Badly
11.07.02 | Rick Shaftan

Posted on 11/07/2002 4:19:30 PM PST by Coleus

WHY FORRESTER LOST - AND LOST BADLY…

Rick Shaftan

Liberal “experts” attempt to alibi Doug Forrester’s humiliating defeat saying it was because he was “too” conservative even though across the nation, conservatives like Norm Coleman, Jim Talent, Saxby Chambliss, Wayne Allard and of course Scott Garrett won unexpected or larger than expected victories.

Forrester lost badly because he never connected with New Jersey’s largest group of swing voters - “Reagan Democrats” - conservative Catholics who live along Routes 3, 17, 46 and the Parkway. And Republicans will continue to lose as long as they believe that being pro-abortion is the only way to win these voters.

Instead, judging by the campaigns and candidates Republicans have nominated over the past decade, one would think that the “swing” voter in New Jersey is a liberal woman whose can trace her ancestry to the Mayflower. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

No Republican has won a vote majority in this state since George Bush got 55 percent against Michael Dukakis in 1988. And in that time, conservative Catholic towns like Secaucus, Bloomfield, Lyndhurst and Clifton have gone from producing 3-2 Republican majorities in statewide elections to 3-2 Democratic majorities.

Now if you listen to the “experts” who have blown election after election in this state, you would think that the way to bring back Republican victories in these towns is for Republicans to move even farther to the left. To the contrary, for Republicans to win in politically marginal areas like New Jersey, they must move back to the conservative base, embrace conservative issues - not run from them - and energize the base. Consider this.

1. While Republicans around the country were making the case for GOP Senate control by attacking liberal judges, Doug Forrester actually said he would vote against conservative judges supported by President Bush - and never once attacked Lautenberg for supporting a host of leftist jurists, including those who took “under God” out of the Pledge of Allegiance.

2. Republican Party bosses and academic “experts” like David Rebovich say that conservative pro-Life voters “have no place to go” and therefore can be ignored by Republicans. But many pro-Life voters are Democrats (ditto for gun owners). Forrester, ignoring reality, got into a well-publicized spat with New Jersey Right to Life and saw his lead among pro-Life voters drop from 56-32 to 46-38 in two weeks, without any increase among pro-abortion voters. No Republican should win less than 80 percent of the pro-Life vote. If Forrester had won 80 percent of the pro-Life vote, he would be Senator-Elect today.

3. No one has yet explained how “right-wing extremist” Scott Garrett won a higher percentage than Forrester in the allegedly “socially moderate” 5th Congressional District. And don’t look for the answer in the press or from Dr. Rebovich, who always seems to be wrong - they’re still in shock.

4. Inexplicably, Forrester not once referred to Lautenberg as a liberal (neither did Haytaian in 1994 - another losing race in spite of a massive national GOP trend), even though the former and future Senator had among the highest liberal ratings in the Senate - always in the 95-100 percent range. Polling indicates that conservatives outnumber liberals in New Jersey by 2-1. But the Forrester campaign seems to have foolishly believed those numbers were reversed and that they, in fact, were really running in Greenwich Village.

5. Our polling in a variety of towns indicated a carefully targeted Democratic campaign to identify Forrester as a “right-wing conservative” among liberals. Forrester’s defensive response was to tell conservatives that he was in fact a liberal, rather than to tell conservatives that Lautenberg was one. If you’re going to be attacked as a conservative, you might as well get the upside. And that didn’t happen because Forrester was more afraid of being attacked than energizing the conservative Republican base that, outside of the 5th CD, stayed home.

6. Forrester was the only Senate candidate targeted for defeat by Sarah Brady who lost - coincidentally also the only one who never filled out an NRA questionnaire and therefore was not on the little orange postcard that the NRA sent out in other states (or the one sent promoting Scott Garrett).

7. Forrester focused his message on “integrity” (whatever that means - we are dealing with politicians here) and the “debate on debates.” By highlighting Lautenberg’s supposedly being afraid to debate they only lowered expectations. When Lautenberg held his own (all he had to do was not drool on TV) Forrester lost any remaining rationale for his candidacy.

8. The centerpiece of the post-Torricelli campaign was an endorsement by “Uncle Tom” Kean, who has not endorsed a winning candidate in a competitive race since 1985 (unless you count Bill Clinton in 1996 or Rush Holt in 1998). The Forrester campaign should have looked at Kean’s record back in 1987 at the height of his “popularity” when he endorsed 10 GOP State Senate candidates in tight races and all 10 lost (he also “un-endorsed” 3 GOP Senators, all of whom won).

Republicans continue to lose because of the leftward drift, not in spite of it. And an even bigger problem is the perception that the party is anti-Catholic. Running “Republicans” who continue to emphasize how pro-abortion they are doesn’t help. Even non-pro-Life Catholics perceive “pro-choice” Republicans as having latent anti-Catholic prejudices. The election returns back that up.

It’s been 30 years since Republicans ran a Roman Catholic in a state that is majority Catholic - that’s just dumb. And the drop in GOP percentages is not just a New Jersey problem - with “pro-choice Republicans” at the helm, Republicans have taken a major nosedive in Catholic suburbs from Boston to St. Paul in the last decade. And this will continue as long as the party is controlled by a small group of elitist rich (and of course non-Catholic) liberals who fit the stereotype of what Democrats say Republicans are.

With another great Republican election night passing New Jersey by, maybe it is time for New Jersey Republicans to follow the rest of the nation’s lead rather than defy it and move back to the right. Again and again we are told that some liberal “Republican” is the new Golden Boy, only to see them lose on Election Day. It’s time for a change and the first step should be a total housecleaning at the Republican State Committee, starting with Joe Kyrillos.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rick Shaftan (who is not Catholic) is a political consultant for “conservatives with the guts to win.” The president of Neighborhood Research, a polling company and Mountaintop Media, which produces TV, radio and direct mail, his clients were 12-0 on Tuesday, with one race still in doubt. Among his successful clients this year were conservative Democrat Russ Pitman, who defeated 20-year liberal Republican incumbent Len Kaiser for North Arlington Mayor, conservative freshman Virginia Republican State Senator Ken Cuccinelli, and the Coalition Against the Tax Referendum which defeated a proposed Northern Virginia Sales Tax increase by a 55-45 margin.


TOPICS: Free Republic; Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: abortionlist; catholiclist; editorial; election; forrester; gobretgo; mountaintopmedia; newjersey; nj; prolife; senator; shaftan; sprint
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1 posted on 11/07/2002 4:19:30 PM PST by Coleus
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To: agrace; Alberta's Child; Antoninus; Atticus; BeforeISleep; Betteboop; bioprof; Black Agnes; ...
Here's what he said about the Schundler Campaign.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/566169/posts
2 posted on 11/07/2002 4:21:58 PM PST by Coleus
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To: jern
for a later read....
3 posted on 11/07/2002 4:23:02 PM PST by jern
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To: All
6. Forrester was the only Senate candidate targeted for defeat by Sarah Brady who lost - coincidentally also the only one who never filled out an NRA questionnaire and therefore was not on the little orange postcard that the NRA sent out in other states (or the one sent promoting Scott Garrett).>>>>>>

Anti-Gun Agenda Cost Candidates for House and Senate
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/784336/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/784336/posts?page=30#30
4 posted on 11/07/2002 4:34:24 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
The Dem in Nothern Maine is pro life. The Pub pro choice. Guess who won.

Had the pub been pro life, he would have won. They were both cookie-cutter so that made the difference.

Those who are pro life are not tied to a political party. If the Dems have a good candidate who is pro life he has a good chance of winning.
5 posted on 11/07/2002 4:45:36 PM PST by KeyWest
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To: nutmeg
bump
6 posted on 11/07/2002 4:46:12 PM PST by nutmeg
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To: Coleus
Forrester was no prize from what I saw of him, and I should know turkeys with Simon here in CA folks! LOL
7 posted on 11/07/2002 4:47:53 PM PST by A CA Guy
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To: A CA Guy
Hey, watch out, Simon is a NJ boy too. He might be a friend of Tony Soprano, LOL. Anyway, he is a poor speaker with a big heart as was his late father. His foundation gives money to my Catholic School every year.

http://www.capitalresearch.org/publications/foundation_watch/2001/0110.htm

http://www.mmhf.org/html/giving.html

http://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazines/2000-05/staffingup.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/maserati/maserati042202.asp
8 posted on 11/07/2002 4:59:51 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
Forrester lost because THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS A CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE They BROKE THE LAW, and the poor pathetic residents felt it didn't matter & elected Lousenberg. There is NO OTHER REASON. Everything AFTER the fact means NOTHING.
9 posted on 11/07/2002 5:03:52 PM PST by Puppage
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To: Coleus
I have relatives in NJ and NY that ARE Tony Soprano and I won't have ANYTHING to do with them. All with connections to the Teamsters Union by the way.

I avoid them like the flu. FORGETABOUTIT~
10 posted on 11/07/2002 5:11:47 PM PST by A CA Guy
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To: Puppage
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS A CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE>>>

I can agree with that and what happened is criminal. But is was a Republican Chief Justice, Deborah Poritz, Whitman appointee, who heard the case and all the rupublicans on the court voted for the Lause to run.

Here is where the criminal activity began, all lead by a republican.

http://www.judiciary.state.nj.us/supreme/index.htm


11 posted on 11/07/2002 5:36:06 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Coleus
Much that is true in the article, a lot of specifics arguable. The nut of Forrester's loss was that he had built a lead pointing out Torch's criminality, which was too much even for NJ. Once he had no Torch to run against, from what I saw of Forrester, he had NOTHING to run on, no platform of what he supported, and zero ability to shift gears from anti-Torch to pro-Forrester.
12 posted on 11/07/2002 5:40:15 PM PST by barkeep
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To: Coleus
In NJ, the Democraps and the RINOs (Whitless, Putzhead, DiFiasco, etc.) are all Socialists! There isn't a micron of difference between them.
13 posted on 11/07/2002 5:40:40 PM PST by leprechaun9
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To: Puppage
The Demo win because they OWN the Unions! Any other questions?
14 posted on 11/07/2002 5:43:00 PM PST by Afronaut
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To: Coleus
The NJSC is a democratic entity. Hardly, republican. Do you really think Justice Coleman is a republican? Regardless, they legislated from the bench. It was illegal & should not have been allowed.
15 posted on 11/07/2002 5:44:13 PM PST by Puppage
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To: Afronaut
The Demo win because they OWN the Unions! Any other questions?>>>>

That's an understatement.

Democrats=Unions=Organized Crime

Democrats=Unions=Most Public Employees

16 posted on 11/07/2002 5:48:39 PM PST by Coleus
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To: Puppage
It still sounds like Forrester was not a very good candidate. From down here in Texas, I assumed that Forrester would have gotten a bigger "outrage bump" from conservative Republicans and Reagan Democrats after the Democrats' switcheroo.

Based on the article, however, it appears that conservatives didn't seem to care a whole lot about Forrester after the Torch was gone. Evidently he wasn't a very inspiring candidate. He sounds kind of RINOish, actually.

(Anyone could have beaten Torch. And it really does sound like a better candidate would have beaten a liberal old crank like Lautenberg. After all, Coleman beat Mondale.

Hopefully, we Republicans have learned something here. Manifestly, the NJ Republican Party should not nominate guys like Forrester in the future. [Come to think of it, the California guys need to do a better job in the primaries, too. Simon got close, but a better candidate would have creamed Gray Davis.])

17 posted on 11/07/2002 5:50:08 PM PST by the_doc
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To: Puppage
I think Lautenberg won mostly due to simple name recognition. "The Poor Pathetic Residents" of NJ knew his name from somewhere, probably thought he was the incumbent.
Gotta love 'em - they're too busy fighting traffic and attending their union meetings to pay much attention to politics.

18 posted on 11/07/2002 5:52:10 PM PST by watchwoman
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To: barkeep
Once he had no Torch to run against, from what I saw of Forrester, he had NOTHING to run on, no platform of what he supported, and zero ability to shift gears from anti-Torch to pro-Forrester.

I'm just a dumb ole Texas boy, but Forrester sounded so scripted that he came across as a human encyclopedia, regurgitating facts but with no emotion.

I'm not surprised he wasn't able to connect with New Jersey voters. He reminds me of my nerdy cousin, who knows everything except how to talk to his kids when they come to him with a problem.

They call me or my wife, because they know we'll listen and not try to "fix" their problem.

It would have helped if Forrester had been pro-life; it would have helped even more if he had exhibited some warmth as a human being.

19 posted on 11/07/2002 5:53:27 PM PST by sinkspur
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To: the_doc
a better candidate would have beaten a liberal old crank like Lautenberg.

Maybe they should have pulled Forrester out of the ran with 4 days to go and put in Rudy Guiliani? Too, late for that....not a resident of New Jersey? What should THAT matter? After all..Lousenberg was allowed to be a candidate when THE LAW said he couldn't. What's good for the goose.....

20 posted on 11/07/2002 5:56:35 PM PST by Puppage
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