Final Zogby poll numbers VS Results of Election Night (A FR Archive thread)

SD Senate- Thune (R) Over Johnson (D) 52-47
SD Senate- Johnson (D) Over Thune (R) 50-49
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."

MN Senate- Mondale (D) Over Coleman (R) 51-45
MN Senate- Coleman (R) Over Mondale (D) 50-47
Pollster John Zogby: "Despite the President's best efforts, looks like Mondale holds on."

GA Senate- Cleland (D) Over Chambliss (R) 50-48
GA Senate- Chambliss (R) Over Cleland (D) 53-46
Pollster John Zogby: "A big surprise because this race was on the watch list, then off, then on again. This one is truly too close to call, but more voters think it is time for someone new than feel that Cleland deserves re-election. Here's another race where 401K-holders vote against the incumbent."

CO Senate- Strickland (D) Over Allard (R) 51-46
CO Senate- Allard (R) Over Strickland (D) 51-45
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks to me like Strickland will win this, though it has tightened again. Allard's re-elect numbers where never good and interestingly, while 401K-holders voted solidly Republican in 2000, the two candidates tied among this group - advantage Strickland."

TX Senate- Cornyn (R) Over Kirk (D) 50-46
TX Senate- Cornyn (R) Over Kirk (D) 55-43
Pollster John Zogby: "Turnout is everything here. Cornyn is also helped by President Bush's 78% favorable rating in Texas and the President's last-minute campaigning. But Kirk is a hot candidate and a big push by Hispanics and African Americans could make this even tighter."

AR Senate- Pryor (D) Over Hutchinson (R) 56-43
AR Senate- Pryor (D) Over Hutchinson (R) 54-46
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."

NC Senate- Dole (R) Over Bowels (D) 53-43
NC Senate- Dole (R) Over Bowels (D) 54-45
Pollster John Zogby: "A roller-coaster ride in this campaign. At one point this became a four-point race. But it looks like Dole has run the clock out as her lead grows over the last couple days."

MO Senate- Talent (R) Over Carnahan (D) 50-43
MO Senate- Talent (R) Over Carnahan (D) 50-49
Pollster John Zogby: "Carnahan's re-elect was poor and she loses by 21 points among 401K-holders. Looks like Talent wins this one."

NJ Senate- Lautenberg (D) Over Forrester (R) 55-42
NJ Senate- Lautenberg (D) Over Forrester (R) 54-44
Pollster John Zogby: "Voters simply never found Forrester." br>

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I've just completed a cursory analysis of the accuracy of independent pollsters for the 2002 cycle. The only poll numbers considered were an organization's final poll for a given race, and only if it contained polling dates Oct. 21 or later. Only Senate and Governor races were considered. I also lumped together the qualifying results for the various local polling agencies (e.g. Ciruli, Quinnipiac, Field Poll, ARG, etc.) to come up with their composite accuracy. A final note - pollsters were not penalized for races in which the actual margin of victory was greater than 25 points (it's easy to miss by 10 or even 20 points in blowout races, thereby skewing the overall accuracy average).

A polling organization was reviewed only if it conducted 5 or more polls that met the above criteria.

The results, in order of descending accuracy.

1.) Gallup
Average error: 2.8 points
Correctly called 4/5 races (80%)

2.) Mason-Dixon
Average error: 3.4 points
Correctly called 17/18 races (94%)

3.) Rasmussen Research
Average error: 3.5 points
Correctly called 2/5 races (40%)

4.) SurveyUSA
Average error: 4.6 points
Correctly called 26/28 races (93%)

5.) Local Pollsters (Composite)
Average error: 4.9 points
Correctly called 71/79 races (90%)

6.) Zogby
Average error: 5.0 points
Correctly called 12/17 races (71%)

7.) Research 2000
Average error: 5.2 points
Correctly called 3/5 races (60%)

Gallup was the most accurate in the races they polled, but I hesitate giving them the overall prize since they only polled 5 races (that I'm aware of). I'd probably give the year's award to Mason-Dixon for best accuracy among extensive pollsters. Zogby comes in dead last among that small group, both in terms of average error and in ability to correctly call winners. I think it's safe to say that the Zogby mystique (if there really was one) is gone.

Despite alot of the criticism they have taken, I wouldn't be quite so harsh on SurveyUSA in the final analysis. They're clearly not in the upper echelon, but they're not that bad, either -- perhaps slightly better than your average local pollster. Their overall numbers were somewhat skewed due to being so far off in a couple races in SC and IA. Remove those, and their average error was a pretty respectable 3.7 points. They polled MI, OK, CO, MD, OH, AZ and TN as good or better than anyone else. For their cheap price and large number of polls they conduct, I can't really criticize them.

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