Final Zogby poll numbers VS Results of Election Night (A FR Archive thread)

Zogby VS. The Results ^ | Nov. 6, 2002 | Jern

[jern]

ZOGBY IN RED
Actual results are in black

SD Senate- Thune (R) Over Johnson (D) 52-47
SD Senate- Johnson (D) Over Thune (R) 50-49
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."

MN Senate- Mondale (D) Over Coleman (R) 51-45
MN Senate- Coleman (R) Over Mondale (D) 50-47
Pollster John Zogby: "Despite the President's best efforts, looks like Mondale holds on."

GA Senate- Cleland (D) Over Chambliss (R) 50-48
GA Senate- Chambliss (R) Over Cleland (D) 53-46
Pollster John Zogby: "A big surprise because this race was on the watch list, then off, then on again. This one is truly too close to call, but more voters think it is time for someone new than feel that Cleland deserves re-election. Here's another race where 401K-holders vote against the incumbent."

CO Senate- Strickland (D) Over Allard (R) 51-46
CO Senate- Allard (R) Over Strickland (D) 51-45
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks to me like Strickland will win this, though it has tightened again. Allard's re-elect numbers where never good and interestingly, while 401K-holders voted solidly Republican in 2000, the two candidates tied among this group - advantage Strickland."

TX Senate- Cornyn (R) Over Kirk (D) 50-46
TX Senate- Cornyn (R) Over Kirk (D) 55-43
Pollster John Zogby: "Turnout is everything here. Cornyn is also helped by President Bush's 78% favorable rating in Texas and the President's last-minute campaigning. But Kirk is a hot candidate and a big push by Hispanics and African Americans could make this even tighter."

AR Senate- Pryor (D) Over Hutchinson (R) 56-43
AR Senate- Pryor (D) Over Hutchinson (R) 54-46
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."

NC Senate- Dole (R) Over Bowels (D) 53-43
NC Senate- Dole (R) Over Bowels (D) 54-45
Pollster John Zogby: "A roller-coaster ride in this campaign. At one point this became a four-point race. But it looks like Dole has run the clock out as her lead grows over the last couple days."

MO Senate- Talent (R) Over Carnahan (D) 50-43
MO Senate- Talent (R) Over Carnahan (D) 50-49
Pollster John Zogby: "Carnahan's re-elect was poor and she loses by 21 points among 401K-holders. Looks like Talent wins this one."

NJ Senate- Lautenberg (D) Over Forrester (R) 55-42
NJ Senate- Lautenberg (D) Over Forrester (R) 54-44
Pollster John Zogby: "Voters simply never found Forrester." br>

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[Seeking the truth]

Thanks for doing this. I was praying that someone on FR could take the time to do this - and you did!

[Steven W.]

he just got the names backwards when they asked the polling questions. "Hmmm ... Did I say Allard or did I ask Strickland. Hmmm ... don't remember ... better add another douse of that special sauce!"

[SamAdams76]

Yep, as soon as I saw my 401(k) statement, I just knew I had to get in my car, drive out to Missouri, and vote against that damned widow.

[alancarp]

Here's a few more for reference: looks to me like Survey USA was closest in the most races. Surprised me...

AZ GOV: SALMON NAPOLITANO MAHONEY(I)
Survey USA: DEM BY 2
ACTUAL: DEM BY 4

CA GOV: SIMON DAVIS
Survey USA: DEM BY 6
ACTUAL: DEM BY 5

CO SEN: ALLARD STRICKLAND
Zogby: DEM BY 5
Survey USA: REP BY 4
ACTUAL: REP BY 6

FL GOV: BUSH MCBRIDE
Maxon-Dixon: REP BY 8
Zogby: REP BY 16
Survey USA: REP BY 5
ACTUAL: REP BY 13

IL GOV: RYAN BLAGOJEVICH
Survey USA: DEM BY 14
ACTUAL: DEM BY 7

IL SEN: DURKIN DURBIN
Survey USA: DEM BY 19
ACTUAL: DEM BY 22

IA GOV: GROSS VILSACK
Survey USA: DEM BY 14
ACTUAL: DEM BY 8

IA SEN: GANSKE HARKIN
Survey USA: DEM BY 22
ACTUAL: DEM BY 10

MD GOV: EHRLICH TOWNSEND
Mason-Dixon: REP BY 1
Survey USA: REP BY 5
ACTUAL: REP BY 3

MI GOV: POSTHUMUS GRANHOLM
Survey USA: REP BY 6
ACTUAL: REP BY 4

NJ SEN: LAUTENBERG FORRESTER
Mason-Dixon: DEM BY 7
Zogby: DEM BY 13
Survey USA: DEM BY 10
ACTUAL: DEM BY 10

MN SEN: COLEMAN MONDALE
Zogby: DEM BY 6
ACTUAL: REP BY 3

MO SEN: TALENT CARNAHAN
Zogby 53-45: REP BY 8
Survey USA: REP BY 2
ACTUAL: REP BY 1

NC SEN: DOLE BOWLES
Mason-Dixon: REP BY 6
Zogby: REP BY 10
Survey USA: REP BY 4
ACTUAL: REP BY 9

NV GOV: GUINN NEAL
Survey USA: REP BY 35
ACTUAL: REP BY 46

OH GOV: TAFT HAGAN
Survey USA: REP BY 18
ACTUAL: REP BY 20

OK GOV: LARGENT HENRY RICHARDSON(I)
Survey USA: DEM BY 4
ACTUAL: DEM BY 0

OK SEN: INHOFE WALTERS
Survey USA: REP BY 17
ACTUAL: REP BY 21

PA GOV: FISHER RENDELL
Survey USA: DEM BY 19
ACTUAL: DEM BY 9

RI GOV: CARCIERI YORK
Survey USA: REP BY 3
ACTUAL: REP BY 10

KS GOV: SHALLENBURGER SEBELIUS
Survey USA: DEM BY 7
ACTUAL: DEM BY 8

KY SEN: McCONNELL WEINBERG
Survey USA: REP BY 37
ACTUAL: REP BY 28

NH SEN: SUNUNU SHAHEEN
Zogby favors Sununu(R) - no data
Becker Institute: DEM BY 6
Amer. Research Grp: REP BY 4
ACTUAL: REP BY 4

NY GOV: PATAKI McCALL GOLISANO(I)
Survey USA: REP BY 15
ACTUAL: REP BY 16

SC SEN: GRAHAM SANDERS
Maxon-Dixon: REP BY 17
Survey USA: REP BY 1
ACTUAL: REP BY 11

SC GOV: SANFORD HODGES
Maxon-Dixon: REP BY 7
Survey USA: DEM BY 6 (TYPO?)
ACTUAL: REP BY 6

SD SEN: THUNE JOHNSON
Zogby: REP BY 5
ACTUAL: TIE

TN GOV: HILLEARY BREDESEN
Survey USA: REP BY 4
ACTUAL: DEM BY 3

TN SEN: ALEXANDER CLEMENT
Mason-Dixon: REP BY 10
Survey USA: REP BY 11
ACTUAL: REP BY 10

TX GOV: PERRY SANCHEZ
Zogby 58-38: REP BY 20
Survey USA 53-43: REP BY 10
ACTUAL: REP BY 18

TX SEN: CORNYN KIRK
Zogby: REP BY 4
Survey USA: REP BY 8
ACTUAL: REP BY 12

[patriciaruth]

Zogby was wrong in his guesses.

In Colorado he didn't factor that the Republican Party had set up its innovative get out the vote strategy for its first trial run. And the Wellstone memorial pep rally energized twice as many volunteers to show up to execute the strategy as had been expected.

Zogby underestimated the energizing of the Republicans due to the Torricelli-Lautenberg switch, the voter fraud scheme uncovered in South Dakota, and the Wellstone memorial pep rally. And he underestimated it's effect on the independent voter, with Jesse Ventura leading that segment of public thinking.

Finally, Zogby overestimated the Democrat get out the dead voter campaign. He didn't realize how many FBI agents that Ashcroft and the DOJ had watching this election.

As much as the President gets credit, and he deserves a lot, we also need to thank the quiet work of Ashcroft and thank the Dems for shooting themselves in the foot.

I especially want to thank the Democrats who went to Baghdad and the McKinneys for their anti-Semiticism.

[deport]

some musings that maybe of interest to you

[patriciaruth]

MI GOV: POSTHUMUS GRANHOLM
Survey USA: REP BY 6
ACTUAL: REP BY 4

HUH????? Is this a typo?

[WOSG]

Zogby has Kirk within one the weekend before the election, scaring the heck out of me, and Cornyn wins by double digits.

His polls were not even close, for that one, for CO/Allard, for Georgia.

He aint no superman, for sure.

[alancarp]

No, they actually had Michigan Gov pretty darn close... SurveyUSA.com has a verification chart to confirm my transcription.

Oh: and they did royally screw up the S.C. governorship race -- it's not a typo as guessed above. That was close to their worst polling job.

[patriciaruth]

MI GOV: POSTHUMUS GRANHOLM Survey USA: REP BY 6 ACTUAL: REP BY 4

I thought the Dem, Granholm, won this race?

[JameRetief]

MI GOV: POSTHUMUS GRANHOLM Survey USA: REP BY 6 ACTUAL: REP BY 4

I thought the Dem, Granholm, won this race?

Granholm did win. The numbers are reversed.

[CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC]

"..... energized twice as many volunteers to show up to execute the strategy as had been expected."

I was one of those Colorado volunteers who was for the first time in my life walking precincts for the GOP. (They called us the "96 Hour Team" - and it FELT like a full 96 hours without sleep!) And you're right - that the Minnesota Funerally and the SD voter fraud and the NJ Illegal Substitution all played a part in energizing me.

But you're leaving out the single biggest factor in my motivation - and I would personally like to take this opportunity to thank Jim Jeffords and Pat Leahy and Tom Daschle for giving me the motivation to start on the path of something that I sense - no make that "that I know" - will be a lifelong habit every 2 years. And probably even more frequently than that! Jeffords, for his traitorous action in handing power over to Leahy and Daschle. And the latter two for an incredibly abusive - bordering on evil - misuse of that great power put into their hands.

And I'll have to acknowledge that those daily reminders to "Wipe The Smile Off This Man's Face" helped my motivation as well. Thank you, fellow Freepers!!

PS: On the last day of this 96 hour marathon, I worked from 6:15AM to 8PM at a single polling place, taking down names of voters who showed up, then going out to my Jeep to call hundreds of No-Shows or Yet-To-Shows to try and turn them into Will-Shows. Then back again to take down more names. Then back to the Jeep for hours at a stretch. And so on. And the Demo poll watcher for this same precinct only showed up once all day for maybe 20 minutes - while I was out making calls. I wonder if this was true for the other precincts as well? Sure sounds to me like they may have been seriously undermanned in comparison to us! From what I understand, the GOP is relying more on volunteers, while the Dems are relying more on paid union labor. I really am curious as to how the motivation of their average campaign worker stacked up against ours?

[CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC]

Someone told me last night that Zogby - an Arab-American - used to be fairly neutral and fair in his polling, even though he personally leaned Democrat - But that because of Bush's military action against Afghanistan and the threat of action against Iraq, Zogby has gone "off the deep end" against the GOP and is no longer as objective as he once was. And supposedly this loss of neutrality has made him unable to match his previous accuracy in polling results. They also claimed that he has a brother who is head of some big Arab-American organization.

Has anyone else heard anything like this? He sure does not sound too partisan in this interview, but who knows.

[patriciaruth]

WOW! Bless your heart! I am so grateful to you for helping a decent man and a quiet but good Senator, Wayne Allard, from losing his seat to a slick liberal.

[patriciaruth]

Yes, there are two Zogby brothers, James and John, I think, and yes the one that doesn't poll is the one who speaks for a Muslim organization. I think James is the one who goes on TV and John is the pollster.

[jern]

Kudos to you. The 72 & 96 hour teams are what made the different in this election. I was part of the NC team. We had the biggest night in GOP history on Tuesday night.

[jern]

heads up....

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Thank you, jern. The press manipulated polls (and voters) shamelessly here in Florida. After AP, Gannett and WP got caught printing the results of a fictional DNC "insider" poll (someone working for the American Prowler nailed 'em), the Fla. papers quickly came up with new polls within days. Zogby did call Florida, but most Florida Republicans didn't trust the polls (or the press) by this time, and were motivated to vote and GOTV to both re-elected a good Governor in Jeb, but also to nail the Clinton-Gore-DNC-press liars for the two-year "illegitimacy" campaign and DNC election 2000 voter fraud.

We didn't need the sorelosermen Al and Bill to remind us to get out the vote. Florida Republicans will not forget election 2000.

[KQQL]

mason -dixon and Gallup were more closer than Zogbys crap..( he spins his polls....and his dislike of W showed this time around/// surveyusa did o.k....they screwed up in SC //

CO:Zogby was wrong about CO, but Gallup and SurveyUSA were right.

MN....Mason Dixon were right , that Coleman was ahead.
Zogby and Star Tribune sucked.( POA was right here )

SD.......Guess who was right about this race.
POA aka Scott polls...

NH last Gallup/UNH and AMG right on the money about this race....

MO, this race was too close at the end, but Gallup
and R2000 showed talent at 50% and that's where he ended up......


GA: GA voters are smarter than SD voters and stupid pollsters.

TX: Dallas news polls had TX pegged.( and SurveyUSa did o.k)
( I knew no RAT would get over 45% in TX...and the results proved me right...even Media darling SHarp got only 45% of the votes )

NC : Everyone got NC race right....

SC...Mason Dixon did o.k here.
SurveyUSA's worst polling came from SC.