The GOP victory?
Readers Eric Solum and HNAV alert us to the hilarously contrarian electoral forecast in the cover story of the new issue of Barron's. The story is "Survivor! The GOP Victory." Barron's bases its electoral forecast on analysis of the candidates' warchests and notes that its method is less accurate in Senate races (where it ascribes 89 percent accuracy to the method) than in House races (where it ascribes 93 percent accuracy to the method as a predictor in races going back to 1972, 98 percent more recently). Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. Permalink
DAN RIEHL THINKS that the Dems are blowing it. His analysis may be a bit hopeful, but we've certainly seen some significant mistakes in the past few days. Plus, the "outing fever" among the activist left is very distasteful, and is generating blowback. It looks very hypocritical coming from people who've spent the last several years warning about Republican threats to privacy, and it also bespeaks an unprincipled hunger for victory and power at any cost. (Some of them are visibly worried about this, and they should be. But it's a bit late.)