Sorry, but I completely disagree. We could easily see Dems pick up 2, everything is just too close. Remember, it only takes 50.001% to win. AR is gone, CO is going to take a near miracle, NH could go. MO is a likely gain, but SD & GA could slip through our fingers. And MN is still an uphill battle, there's just so much Dem/Indep tradition to overcome, its that "when in doubt, I guess I have to stick with the defender of the common man" idiotthink. Like it or not.
OTOH, TX and NC aren't going anywhere, and his earlier wording on NJ is intriguing. He had it mixed in with the states that are still in play, instead of lumping NJ in with NC as a state that is decided(which his numbers here would suggest as more appropriate). Long-shot, but interesting.
Guess I might as well join the crowd in a prediction:
GOP loss: AR, CO GOP gain: SD, MO
So the GOP needs to get one of GA, LA, MN(in order of most likely to least likely shot).
BTW, there is no way in hell that Kirk is leading Cornyn. In just a few days Zogby goes from Kirk in DFW down 45-49 to Kirk up 62-38. Impossible, which points to sampling problems for Zogby. While I think that some are way to quick to scream vote fraud at every turn, if Kirk wins TX, that will be the only explanation. (OK, if half the Houston suburbs are flooded out, that will be the exception.)
My prediction: GOP +1(to 50-50), but not until December or January. Its been pretty quiet these last few days, no real October surprises from the Dems. That makes me wonder if the GOTV/absentee/provisional/10,000 intimidators/related shenanigans tomorrow are going to be as ugly as many of us imagine. And a messy court fight might give Lincoln Chafee the cover to sell out. But for now I'll assume that he'll do the right thing, for a price. Same for McCain. There are 3 things that have recently convinced me that Bush has signaled that he is ready to play hardball and take it to the limit.
I don't care if you have Emmitt, Barry, Faulk, or Payton, scoring on 4th and goal at the 2 with 6 seconds remaining and down 4 is NEVER a certainty. Doesn't matter who has the better team, who has the tougher schedule, what the weather is, what the crowd noise is, what the bad calls were, bottom line its all down to one play, fair or not.