[laconic]

Zogby has been accurate in the past. What surprises me this year are the following: Jeb Bush up by 15 in Florida; the doddering widder Carnahan up by 1 in Missouri; the "good" Ryan up by fraction in Illinois; Strickland up by 9 in Colorado; Kirk down by only 1 in Texas. I haven't seen numbers like these anywhere; he appears to be about five to seven percent too high or too low in each case compared to the other pollsters. I don't think Zogby cooks his polls; this is big business for him and his polling accuracy reputation is extremely important in getting new clients. Anyone have any ideas here?

[comebacknewt]

To me, the Ryan numbers are the biggest shock of all.

Most other pollsters and pundits give him no chance of winning. Zogby shows him ahead -- and he is a Pubbie.

Very curious.

[Dog Gone]

I don't think Zogby cooks his polls; this is big business for him and his polling accuracy reputation is extremely important in getting new clients.

I guess we'll know in a couple of days, but he has been horribly wrong in many races in the past.

He's wrong on several here. Bookmark this thread and come back on Wednesday and you'll see.

[Dave S]

I haven't seen numbers like these anywhere; he appears to be about five to seven percent too high or too low in each case compared to the other pollsters. I don't think Zogby cooks his polls; this is big business for him and his polling accuracy reputation is extremely important in getting new clients. Anyone have any ideas here?

I hope Im wrong but the DEms have had major GOTV campaigns in the last two off year elections which have left the GOP surprised, losing races they thought they had in the bag. The AFL-CIO is suppposely putting more resources behind candidates in this race than in the previous years. Perhaps Zogby is taking this high turnout for Dems into account in his poll numbers. His prediction in Texas fits with some of the Dems are saying about their GOTV program there.

[montag813]

What surprises me this year are the following: Jeb Bush up by 15 in Florida; the doddering widder Carnahan up by 1 in Missouri; the "good" Ryan up by fraction in Illinois; Strickland up by 9 in Colorado; Kirk down by only 1 in Texas. I haven't seen numbers like these anywhere

True, everyone else has the "good" Ryan losing by 10.