The Bush Election Presence (New CBS Election Poll)

CBS News ^ | November 2, 2002

[goldstategop]

I think the Bush bounce is for real. It will make a difference in the tight races in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Georgia. We'll lose New Hampshire and Arkansas for a net gain of one seat. Louisiana's potentially winnable and the President may campaign there later if we post that gain in the Senate. Even a one seat pickup would be historic! All that being said, let's not count the chickens before they're hatched yet. Election Night will tell the whole story.

[Dog Gone]

I'm washing up a chicken and putting it in the oven in about five minutes. I'm an optimist.

Besides that, I've already voted.

[Diogenesis]

CBS DOGMA: "Americans are resigned to having the cloud of terrorism hanging over the country"

THIS JUST IN: Despite Rather and Cronkite requesting the US to genuflect to
Islamic terrorism and Communism, Americans WILL NOT FORGET
the 911 Atrocities or which side the media took durng war.

[ladyinred]

This is wonderful news of course!
But election fraud might tell the story.
This is the one thing I am worried about.

[EllaMinnow]

I'm guardedly optimistic.

"While men are more likely to say they will vote for the Republican over the Democratic candidate in their district — 49 percent to 35 percent — women are evenly divided. Forty-six percent of women likely voters will vote Republican, and 45 percent will vote Democratic."

What gender gap?

[Dog Gone]

While men are more likely to say they will vote for the Republican over the Democratic candidate in their district — 49 percent to 35 percent — women are evenly divided. Forty-six percent of women likely voters will vote Republican, and 45 percent will vote Democratic. Republicans and Democrats will support their party's candidate; 41 percent of Independents will choose the Republican, and 34 percent will vote for the Democrat.

Fraud can't overcome that. We've almost won over the ladies. The men are solidly with us.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Shaheen only wins if GOP turnout is low. We are working hard to keep that from coming true.

[samtheman]

Nixon won the vote in 1960 and lost the presidency. The Democrats cheated.

It's hard to say who will win the Senate in 2002, but I do know this: the RATS will cheat.

It's what RATS do.

[Dog Gone]

Woops, misread that. We've won over the ladies!

[Wait4Truth]

I don't want to read anyone's responses before I give my own opinion. I think this is a very stupid, dishonest and confusing poll analysis. Sometimes the statements made do not even match the poll results. In most cases, it is written in as negative manner as possible towards the Republicans and President Bush. It seems that they are trying as hard as they can to make the Democrats look good, but it does not work. It looks like people are planning to vote Republican, especially since women are split 46% Republican, 45% Democrat. Men are voting Republican by a good margin. Ok, now I am ready to read what others have written. Thanks for the post, DG!

[rwfromkansas]

HAve you dragged all your family and friends to the polls, put up signs, etc....:)

[Common Tator]

Looking back at the stories just before an election you can get a good understanding of what is going to happen.

Lots of people at CBS and other major media outlets have access to, but not the right to broadcast internal polls. Most media will have access to Democratic traking polls. The only way they won't is if they are very bad for Democrats. That tells the media a lot too. Some at Fox may even have the Republican results and some right wing commentaters get the repubican polls.

Giving the columnists on your side the truth keeps them on your side. They get to take credit for predicting what will happen when they actually know what will happen. It helps their reputation

Internal polls are accurate. A plus or minus 4 points dead heat will not do it for candidates in important races. Candidates want to know the exact score. They want to know where they must go and what they must say to win. At this stage campaigns for the senate poll to the level where the margin of error is well below the spread. By this time have a real handle on voter turn out and they know the true score. They know very well what is going to happen. In a very very few cases they may not be certain for another 36 hours. But before the polls open they will know the outcome in all but the very closest of races. In many races polling will show there is no where a candidate can go and nothing he can say or do that will let him win the race. You can see that in their faces. It is very hard to hide.

These "sure thing" polls influence the stories that get written. They media knows what is going to happen but can't tell you direclty. What they tend to do is hint.

If the sure thing polls show Republicans winning and increasing the lead, then the question is how much of this is caused by Bush. That is what spawns this type of story. A CBS story that even hints Bush is helping, means Republicans are winning.

If the story were how much is economy hurting Republicans we would know the internal poll news was not good for us. But that is not the story.

There are stories floating that DNC Chairman McAuliffe is in trouble.. Party chairman who preside over winning the house and holding the senate get praised to the sky. There are zero rumors they may be fired.

If the story was McAuliffe strategy may prove very successful, then Republicans would be in trouble. Democrat boss may get fired tells you a lot about what the internal polls actually show.

If there are stories Republicans planing for Majority in the house.. that is good for us. There are such stories.

If there are stories that Bush is adding campaign stops that is good news for our side. He will only stop where it is important to increase the lead or he can create a victory. They won't send him where he can not get a win. WE may not win all the sites, but we are going to win most of them.

If there are cautious stories about Repubicans holding the house and taking the senate that is good for us. There are many such storied.

If there are stories that Democrats are down playing the importance of this eleciton, that is good for us. That is happening.

Pundits in their final predictions want to be right.... but they want to cover their rear ends too. They will predict a Repubican win by the skin of their teeth even if is is not that close.

When they are saying it may be a close Repubican win, you can conclude that is in their opinion an understatement.

In this election cycle the last few days have seen one media story after another pointing to a Repubican win. No one thinks the Democrats have any chance to win the house. That is not a media guess. That veiw comes from looking at hard poll numbers that have not been spun.

Lots of people are saying that the Republicans may make gains in the Senate. Any gain takes control.

The media has reasons to speculate as they do. They are not on our side. But they do want to take credit for hinting at the election result.

This could indeed be a good year.

Perhaps the media is leading us down the primrose path... but if we have all voted like our democratic friends... that is vote often and have all our ancestors do the same, we will win this one by a landslide.

[Dog Gone]

Your comments are accurate, as usual. CBS is trying to spin the results of this survey, even when it doesn't make sense.

But they didn't try to hide the numbers which don't look good for them at all.

You could take these same numbers and write a completely different story.

The story doesn't matter as much as the underlying numbers and the fact that it shows the momentum is shifting in our direction BIG TIME.

[uncbob]

But they didn't try to hide the numbers which don't look good for them at all.

Numbers didn't look good for Gore in 2002 until election day then look what happened

[jmstein7]

41 percent of Independents will choose the Republican, and 34 percent will vote for the Democrat.

Um... did anybody notice these numbers? This is huge. This is the election.

[Common Tator]

What gender gap?

There is never a gender gap when there are Muhammads and Malvos in the land.

When times are good and the living is easy woman tend to like sensitive guys who are good dancers. When there is lots of danger women prefer cowboys who can take out 4 bad guys and fend off an an attack on the wagon train without working up a sweat. She will prefer him to a sensitive and feeling converstationalist even if the cowboy's total converstation is limited to "What's fer supper?"

Woman are into staying alive. They are really into surviving. There are very few woman who will die for a cause. Woman understand that the only thing one can get by giving everything, is nothing. Guys don't have that figured out yet. Only after females are secure will they will consider sweet men with soft hands.

[alwaysconservative]

I notice that MOST of the polls are decidedly anti-Republican. For example, on dcpoliticalreports.com, every time Missouri goes red for a milli-second, there's a poll bouncing Carnahan ahead and saying that the state is too close to call. Same with NH, GA, and all the states that don't even have Dems running! Why not put those on the map as Republican? Because the map would look too conservative for them! Grr!

[edwin hubble]

Common Tator,
We really do appreciate your experienced analysis on political matters.
It raises the level and the effectiveness of this forum.

[southernnorthcarolina]

I suspect this story is not getting the attention it should because it has no spiffy pie charts and graphs, and because the really shocking data is buried deep in the rather long article:

The actual contest for control of the House is being fought in relatively few districts. This national poll, however, suggests the Republicans may have gained some ground in recent weeks. Among all registered voters, the Republicans have 44 percent, to 41 percent for the Democrats. Among a smaller subsample of those most likely to vote, 47 percent say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 40 percent will vote for the Democrat.

Wow. Quite interesting, particularly coming from the venerable and liberal Columbia Broadcasting System and The New York Times.