Posted on 11/02/2002 5:53:50 AM PST by The Raven
Experts say governments across Europe need to plan for a virulent flu outbreak that could claim hundreds of thousands of lives.
Although the last two winters have brought only mild strains of flu to the UK, the viruses are constantly mutating and scientists say it is only a matter of time before a powerful strain emerges.
Whatever knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy makers and the politicians that decide what is going to happen
Professor Albert Osterhaus, Erasmus University While it may not be as damaging as the 1918 "Spanish flu" that killed tens of millions in Europe alone, they say that the continent is not ready to cope with another pandemic.
This "superflu" is caused by an influenza virus, but its fatality rate is more reminiscent of lethal haemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.
Previous versions, including the Spanish flu, had mutated into a form which the human immune system could not tackle.
It is possible that, at any time, the virus could mutate again and produce a strain that could share many of these lethal genetic characteristics.
Strategies
Virologists from throughout Europe are meeting in Malta this week to discuss the best strategy for first predicting, and then handling a major outbreak.
Albert Osterhaus, a professor of virology at Erasmus Univeristy in Rotterdam, said: "Whatever knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy makers and the politicians that decide what is going to happen."
European citizens will expect everything possible to have been done at every level of public authority
Robert Coleman, European Commission Some experts have been looking at the genetic structure of the virus which caused the 1918 pandemic, as well as a serious outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 for clues which may help doctors combat such an outbreak.
There were three flu pandemics in the last century, in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
Even though the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks were less severe than the Spanish flu, they still accounted for 40m deaths between them.
Overdue attack
Researchers suggest that an approximate 30 year cycle between pandemics means we are well overdue for another one.
Robert Coleman, the director general of health and consumer protection at the European Commission, said: "The action we take now will determine how well we combat the next major influenza threat we will face.
"European citizens will expect everything possible to have been done at every level of public authority.
"It will be several months at least after the start of the pandemic before a vaccine is available.
"Antiviral drugs could help during this period, but stockpiles would need to be in place well in advance. This is not yet the case."
With all due respect, I believe what you are saying is a distortion of a popular belief amongst herbalists. (I'm an herbalist.) The notion is that taking Echinacea long term causes it to lose its effect of stimulating the immune system. This has been debunked to my satisfaction but is probably still making the rounds in herbal circles. As for Golden Seal it is simply not an immune system stimulator. It helps kill bacteria. Good for secondary infections of the lungs, not very useful and very expensive for viral infections.
I have never heard that either have an adverse effect on the immune system. If you have a source for that I would be very interested. Thank you.
This past summer they had a very quick and virulent type A flu there, and in a matter of weeks around 23,000 people were infected, and around 700 died. Then after Aug. 28, no more information on this flu was put out AT ALL. I haven't forgotten though, I still look for information on it but the story was dropped altogether. And now this. Hmmm.....
I took your suggestion and you are right. Strange isn't it?
The claims don't seem to be adding up. Maybe some knowledgeable Infectious Disease type can clear this up for me.
Perhaps. But strong enough that the drug companies admit that their vaccines in some cases do cause MS. Thimerasol is a mercury derivative. Just making sure we're on the same page.
Furthermore, it is not recommended that people with normal immune systems receive the vaccine (not that it works anyway)... The list is short and the idea is to protect those who might develop complications from getting the flu, not the general population. Is that information being provided for the general population? No. In fact, many grocery stores are promoting these vaccines without any such limitation being advertised. See "Target groups for vaccination" in the link you provided.
The flu shots are not "free."
The virus exists in a multitude of forms....the vaccine for any particular year is based on epidemiologic analysis of existing cases appx. 6 months prior to the next "flu season". So, in essence, the package of viruses that you get immunized against in any one season is based somewhat on a "best guess" analysis of prevailing virus. The immunity is excellent - but only against the virus package in the vaccine. You could unfortunately encounter another type of flu virus and get sick - it doesn't mean the vaccine isn't working - you just got unlucky.
The only reason influenza is "seasonal" is because it's more easily transmitted when people are in close quarters ( ie. inside during cold weather). Also, use of indoor heat reduces the relative humidity indoors, your nasal mucous membranes tend to dry up, and they become less effective in providing a "first line of defense" against invasion by the virus.
Fatalities due to influenza are not usually directly caused by the virus, they're caused by secondary bacterial infections ( without going into too much detail, suffice to say that the virus does a nasty job on the cells lining your trachea, and these are the cells that help to "catch" bacteria as they slide down the tube toward your lungs). Most deaths are due to pneumonia. the reason there were so many deaths in 1918 was because there were no antibiotics available to fight the secondary infections. So, basically, the flu virus itself doesn't kill ( naturally there are exceptions to this ) - it's the bacteria that cause the later infections that do most of the killing.
Bottom line - if you're older or if you're a smoker - or if you come in close contact with the public ( indoors ) ....I'd say to get the shot.
P.S. : the thimerosol is a preservative - it's the same stuff you find in contact lens solutions.
Hope this helps! ( and take the tinfoil off your hats - any season has the potential to be a 'bad' season - this one's no different.....this is one thing I don't stay up nights worrying about. I'd rather not say what I DO worry about!!!!).
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