Tuesday Night Fright
Alaska: Ted Stevens {R} will have to be caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy to lose in Alaska. He's safe.
Arkansas:Tim Hutchinson (R) won in 1996 by campaigning as a strong cultural conservative. Once elected, he dumped his wife of 21 years for a young little hotty staffer. His opponent, Mark Pryor is a Clinton wannabe pretending that he's moderate. Huckabee will lose by two percent.
Colorado: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) and challenger Strickland have been locked up neck and neck at about 40% each in a very negative campaign. Normally, an incumbent at 40% is toast because the undecideds break for the challenger. But here, the undecideds have been undecided for so long, they are likely to simply skip this race. That, and Bill Owens' (R) landslide win will put Allard in for another term.
Delaware: Sen. Joe Biden (D) is safe.
Georgia: Sen. Max Cleland (D) barely won in 1996, and his challenger, Saxby Chambliss (R) has been closing strong. Saxby has the issues, and Cleland has a lot of personal popularity. Saxby will win by 1 percent.
Idaho:Sen. Larry Craig (R) is safe.
Illinois:Sen. Durbin (D) is safe.
Iowa:Sen. Tom Harkin (D) has high negatives and a leftist voting record. But he brings home the bacon for the Iowa farmers, which will keep him in office for at least another six years.
Kansas:Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is safe.
Kentucky:Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is safe.
Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu (D) will narrowly avoid a runoff.
Maine: Susan Collins (R) is safe.
Massachusetts: John Kerry (D) doesn't have a Republican opponent. It wouldn't matter even if he did.
Michigan: Michigan's love affair with Sen. Carl Levin (D) will continue for another six years
Minnesota: The "memorial service" backfired and this gives Coleman a chance. But the service also energized the Rats, so expect the turnout to be very high. Coleman wins in a nailbiter, and his margin of victory will be less than the absentee ballots that were cast prior to Wellstone's death. Democrats will go to court to challenge the results and they will lose.
Mississippi:Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is Senator-for-life
Missouri: The sympathy factor is finished and so is Sen. Carnahan (D). Talent by 2 percent.
Montana: Sen. Max Baucus (D) represents a state that Bush won by nearly 30% .. so what do the Republicans do? They run an (allegedly) gay barber as Baucus' opponent. The Stupid Party strikes again. Baucus is safe.
Nebraska: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) is in for another term. I think the Democrats nominated a truck driver as Hagel's opponent.
New Hampshire: Sununu's inept campaign is bad enough... but the bitter Smith supports are going to kill him. Shaheen by 1 percent.
New Jersey:New Jersey voters are well known for fooling the pollsters. Forrester will do a lot better than expected. Unfortunately, coming close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Lautenberg by 2 percent.
New Mexico:Sen. Pete Domenici (R) was so upset by Paul Wellstone's death that he has stopped campaigning completely. It won't make a difference. He's safe for another term.
North Carolina:A massive black turnout will give Elizabeth Dole a good scare on election night, but she'll still narrowly pull out the win.
Oklahoma:Sen. Inhofe's (R) opponent is former governor David Walters. David Walters is best known for a scandal in which he was indicted on eight felonies, but plead guilty to a misdemeanor campaign finance violation as part of a plea bargain. Inhofe is safe.
Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) seems to have adopted the strategy used by southern and rural Democrats. He votes conservative in Washington but campaigns as a moderate-liberal at home. He's safe.
Rhode Island: Sen. Jack Reed (D) has been in the Senate for six years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. Rhode Island voters don't care. He's safe.
South Carolina: The Democrat whisper campaign isn't working. Lindsey Graham (R) in a cakewalk.
South Dakota: The prarie state voters elect socialists to Congress to bring home the bacon, and this year will be no different. Sen. Johnson (D) will be narrowly re-elected.
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) wins in a cakewalk.
Texas: This isn't a competitive race and it never was either. Cornyn (R) wins.
Virginia: John Warner is unopposed.
West Virginia: Sen. Rockefeller (D) in a cakewalk.
Wyoming: Sen. Enzi (R) is safe.
Tuesday Night Fright
In the 2000 election, everyone said the Reps would maintain control of the Senate where they had a 55-45 majority.
What happened? - The Reps lost 5 senate seats and control of the senate to the shock of all the "talking heads".
Do the right thing.
As you can see from my last post, I saw a late shift towards the Republicans coming.
