Wednesday October 30 2002
MAJOR DEMOCRATIC DAMAGE: "TV networks and radio stations have been bombarded with angry calls. The Democrats greatly overplayed their hand and violated the tradition of "Minnesota nice." The only two Democrats who seemed to instinctively realize how overboard they had gone were Gore and Daschle. It is also being talked about around the water coolers at businesses and schools, and people across the ideological spectrum did not like it. In all, it gives Norm Coleman a fresh start.
State GOP chair reported late last night that Coleman brought in over $150,000 last night alone from angry moderates and conservatives across the country. I was also informed that the phones continue to "ring off the hook" at Coleman headquarters" This from a reader of ours in Minnesota and we have gotten many more emails exactly like this one. With only five full days between now and the election Mondale may not be able to recover from this fiasco. The sympathy vote for Wellstone may have been completely incinerated in 3 1/2 hours last night. JM 5:14 pm
MORE MINNESOTA: "I feel used. I feel violated and duped over the fact that that turned into nothing more than a political rally. Like in the case of Senator Lott flying all the way up here and being booed when he is supposed to be going to a memorial service. I think the Democrats should hang their head in shame." Independent Governor Jesse Ventura
"What a complete, total, absolute sham. The DFL clearly intends to exploit Wellstone's memory totally, completely and shamelessly for political gain. To them, Wellstone's death, apparently, was just another campaign event." Fmr. Rep. Vin Weber (R)
Last night has turned into a disaster for the Democrats. Powerline has delved deeper into the Star Tribune's poll showing Mondale up 8 and has found out that the poll sampled 51% DFL/Democratic supporters and only 36% Republican or GOP leaning supporters, a total of 11% more Democrats than their previous Wellstone/Coleman poll. JM 4:49 pm
MINNESOTA: My initial feeling that Coleman was going to be swamped by the sympathy vote for Wellstone is beginning to fade, and quickly. While it hasn't gotten huge play in the national media, the "memorial service" for the late Senator Wellstone and the other victims was so over the top, and distasteful, it has the real potential to backlash hard on the Democrats. Our friends at Powerline have been all over this story and they report that the "rally" is getting a lot of coverage in Minnesota.
"There is a lot of buzz this morning about the fact that television cameras showed Jesse Ventura and his wife, Terry, getting up and walking out on the Democrats' pep-fest at Williams Arena last night. I heard Ventura being interviewed on the radio this morning. He said that he found the Democrats' misuse for partisan ends not only of Wellstone's death, but of the families of the other victims of the crash, to be deeply offensive. He said that his wife was so shocked and offended by the Democrats' conduct that she was brought to tears, prompting their walkout."
When NPR and William Saletan at Slate also characterize the event as more a political pep rally rather than a memorial service it is clear it isn't just Republicans who think the Democrats went too far. Not to mention I don't take the recent poll from the Star Tribune showing Mondale up 8 as terrible news for Coleman. That poll of 47%-39% may very well be the high water mark for Mondale from here on out. It's reasonable to assume that the sympathy factor is going to be at its peak immediately following the tragedy. Furthermore a poll done by the NRSC, the same time as the Star's poll, had Mondale up only two points, with the Star Tribune's polls long time poll bias for Dems that puts Mondale up 5 points averaging the two polls. The clear politicization of Wellstone's death by the Democrats last night is not going to play well among the average Minnesotan and it will definitely serve to energize Coleman's base. Expect that five point gap to close.
The bottom line is I am close to doing a complete 180 on this race. I think the offensive nature of the "memorial service" last night has put this seat right back into play. And the trump card in Coleman's hand are all those absentee ballots that can not legally be counted for Mondale. This can very easily be a potential 2%-5% boost for Coleman and if he can get this race close in the polls, which I suspect now he will, that absentee difference will be enough to give him the win. The Dems lawsuit to get those Wellstone votes counted for Mondale shows just how seriously the Democrats think those absentee ballots might be.
If Coleman can run a positive, mistake-free, proactive campaign these next few days (and there's no reason to think he can't) these polls will close and this will be a nail-biter. With the absentee ballot edge I think Coleman now will win. But, hey, this is a very fluid situation and Coleman's got to close the poll numbers. I have to give credit to Hugh Hewitt and Ramesh Ponnuru who dismissed the conventional wisdom, including my own, that Coleman couldn't win. JM 1:02 pm Comments