Posted on 10/27/2002 10:05:09 AM PST by Dallas
Key races in the Nov. 5 elections:
ALABAMA -- Democratic Gov. Don Siegelman in a tight re-election race with Rep. Bob Riley. GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions headed for a second term. Republican Mike Rogers favored over Democrat Joe Turnham for Riley's seat in Congress, an important Southern race in battle for House control.
ALASKA -- Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski facing unexpectedly tough challenge from Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer in gubernatorial race. GOP Sen. Ted Stevens, a senator for 34 years, will win six more.
ARIZONA -- Former Rep. Matt Salmon and Democratic Attorney General Janet Napolitano in a competitive race for governor. Republican Rick Renzi rates a slight favorite over Democrat George Cordova for new House seat.
ARKANSAS -- Polls show GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson trailing in re-election campaign against state Attorney General Mark Pryor, son of the man Hutchinson replaced. Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee in a competitive re-election race with state Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher.
CALIFORNIA -- Democratic Gov. Gray Davis vs. businessman Bill Simon in a battle of the unloved candidates. Surveys show Davis with consistent lead, but Republicans say the race remains close. The state has 53 House seats, but redistricting has rendered this the land of no contests.
COLORADO -- GOP Gov. Bill Owens running strongly for re-election. Not so Wayne Allard, the conservative senator struggling to hold off Democrat Ted Strickland in a rematch. Three minor party candidates complicate the race. Newly created House seat in the Denver suburbs is among the most competitive in the country. A second House contest, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Bob Schaffer, leans Republican.
CONNECTICUT -- GOP Gov. John Rowland well ahead for a third term. GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson rates the favorite against Rep. Jim Maloney in one of four lawmaker vs. lawmaker races nationwide. First-term GOP Rep. Rob Simmons appears safe.
DELAWARE -- Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, winning a sixth term.
FLORIDA -- Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's brother, in a tough re-election race with Democratic attorney Bill McBride. Former state Secretary of State Katherine Harris headed for Congress, two years after gaining nationwide fame during the recount controversy.
GEORGIA -- Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes ahead in the polls for a second term. Democratic Sen. Max Cleland appears ahead, but not safely so, in race with Rep. Saxby Chambliss. Three heavily contested House races remain in doubt.
HAWAII -- Linda Lingle hoping to defeat Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono and become first GOP governor since statehood in 1959. The late Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink is on the ballot; her successor likely will not be chosen until Jan. 4.
IDAHO -- Republican Gov. Dirk Kempthorne and Sen. Larry Craig both coasting to re-election.
ILLINOIS -- Democratic Rep. Rod Blagojevich strongly favored over Attorney General Jim Ryan for governor. Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin coasting to new term. GOP Rep. John Shimkus vs. Democratic Rep. David Phelps a marquee House race.
INDIANA -- Businessman Chris Chocola battling former Democratic Rep. Jill Long Thompson in closely watched House race. Democratic Rep. Julia Carson hoping to hold off late GOP offensive in Indianapolis.
IOWA -- Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack appears to be pulling away from GOP challenger Doug Gross. Sen. Tom Harkin running ahead in polls against GOP Rep. Greg Ganske. Veteran GOP Rep. Jim Leach has struggled in heavily redrawn district.
KANSAS -- Democratic insurance commissioner Kathleen Sebelius has led Treasurer Tim Shallenburger in gubernatorial polling in traditionally Republican state. GOP Sen. Pat Roberts a sure winner. GOP hopes for defeating Rep. Dennis Moore fade.
KENTUCKY -- Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell an easy winner. Rep. Ann Northup, a perennial Democratic target, appears ahead in close race for re-election.
LOUISIANA -- Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu will lead the field on Election Day. Republicans hope to hold her below 50 percent and force December runoff that could determine which party controls the Senate. Runoff likely in an open House seat.
MAINE -- Democratic Rep. John Baldacci favored in governor's race. GOP Sen. Susan Collins well ahead for second term. Republican Kevin Raye battles Democrat Michael Michaud in competitive race for Baldacci's House seat.
MARYLAND -- Republican Rep. Robert Ehrlich has run a strong race against Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend for governor; polls show a close race in traditionally Democratic state. Moderate GOP Rep. Connie Morella struggles for a ninth term from the Washington, D.C., suburbs.
MASSACHUSETTS -- Democratic state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien battling former Utah Olympics organizer -- and Massachusetts Senate candidate -- Mitt Romney for governor. Sen. John Kerry coasting to victory in tuneup for 2004 Democratic presidential campaign.
MICHIGAN -- State Attorney General Jennifer Granholm favored to return the governor's office to Democratic hands. Democratic Sen. Carl Levin cruising to fifth term. Republicans in line for House gains from redistricting.
MINNESOTA -- Polls point to a close three-way finish in gubernatorial race pitting Republican Roger Pawlenty vs. Democrat Roger Moe vs. Independent Tim Penny. Sen. Paul Wellstone's death Friday in a plane crash puts a competitive race on hold; Democrats must decide who replaces him on the ballot against GOP challenger Norm Coleman. Democratic Rep. Bill Luther struggling for new term.
MISSISSIPPI -- GOP. Sen. Thad Cochran has no Democratic opponent. GOP Rep. Charles Pickering Jr. favored over Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows in a contest of incumbents.
MISSOURI -- Jean Carnahan, appointed to her Senate seat, faces a severe challenge from former Rep. Jim Talent for the four years remaining on her late husband's term. Talent victory would give GOP control of Senate for fall lame duck session.
MONTANA -- Sen. Max Baucus was coasting to victory even before Republican Mike Taylor suspended his campaign -- resuming it later -- after a devastating Democratic campaign commercial.
NEBRASKA -- Republican sweep for Gov. Mike Johanns and Sen. Chuck Hagel.
NEVADA -- Republican Gov. Kenny Guinn is headed back to the Statehouse. Republicans have upper hand in a fierce fight over a newly created House seat in Las Vegas area.
NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Republican Craig Benson favored for governor over Democrat Mark Fernald, a state income tax advocate. Neither Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen nor Rep. John Sununu has established a clear lead in Senate race. Recent polling favors Republicans in battle for Sununu's House seat.
NEW JERSEY -- After the great ballot switch, former Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg seems ahead of Republican Douglas Forrester to succeed Sen. Robert Torricelli.
NEW MEXICO -- Former Democratic Rep. (and U.N. Ambassador) Bill Richardson a mild favorite over John Sanchez for governor. GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici coasting to sixth term. Both parties spending heavily for an open GOP House seat in southern part of the state.
NEW YORK -- GOP Gov. George Pataki favored for re-election over state Comptroller H. Carl McCall. Billionaire Tom Golisano runs third in polls despite spending roughly $40 million. First-term GOP Rep. Felix Grucci faces tough challenge for a House seat from Long Island.
NORTH CAROLINA -- Republican Elizabeth Dole holds narrowing lead in polls against former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. Democrats hold dwindling hopes of defeating Rep. Robin Hayes.
NORTH DAKOTA -- Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy favored to hold off challenge from Rick Clayburgh.
OHIO -- GOP Gov. Bob Taft well ahead for a second term. Former Rep. Jim Traficant back on the ballot -- running from his federal prison cell.
OKLAHOMA -- Former Rep. Steve Largent vs. Democrat Brad Henry for governor. GOP Sen. Jim Inhofe seems on way to re-election. Race to replace retiring Rep. J.C. Watts leans Republican based on polls.
OREGON -- Competitive gubernatorial race pits Democrat Ted Kulongoski vs. Republican Kevin L. Mannix. GOP Sen. Gordon Smith appears headed for re-election.
PENNSYLVANIA -- Former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell, Democrat, heavy favorite in gubernatorial race. Democratic Rep. Tom Holden and GOP Rep. George Gekas in close, costly battle for House seat.
RHODE ISLAND -- Polls show very close race for governor between Democrat Myrth York and Republican Donald Carcieri. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed winning easily.
SOUTH CAROLINA -- Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges fighting for second term in close, big-spending race with former Rep. Mark Sanford. GOP Rep. Lindsey Graham solid favorite to succeed Strom Thurmond.
SOUTH DAKOTA -- Republican Mike Rounds heavily favored in governor's race. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson battling Rep. John Thune in nasty, expensive Senate race that looks like proxy war between Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and President Bush. Gov. Bill Janklow vs. Democrat Stephanie Herseth for House seat.
TENNESSEE -- Democrat Phil Bredesen vs. Rep. Van Hilleary in close race for governor. Lamar Alexander favored over Rep. Bob Clement for open Senate seat. Democrats expected to claim Hilleary's House seat.
TEXAS -- Gov. Rick Perry ahead despite record spending by Democratic challenger Tony Sanchez. Public polls in Senate race show state Attorney General John Cornyn ahead of former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by double-digits; Democrats say their polls have it far closer.
UTAH -- Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson appears safely ahead despite challenge posed by redistricting.
VERMONT -- Democrat Doug Racine appears narrowly ahead of Republican Jim Douglas for governor.
VIRGINIA -- GOP Sen. John Warner coasting to fifth term.
WASHINGTON -- All nine House incumbents seem safe.
WEST VIRGINIA -- Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller coasting to fourth term. GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito rated the favorite in rematch with Jim Humphreys.
WISCONSIN -- Gov. Scott McCallum faces tough challenge from Democrat Jim Doyle.
WYOMING -- Republican Eli Bebout vs. Democrat Dave Freudenthal in competitive gubernatorial race. GOP Sen. Mike Enzi on his way to second term.
FGS
As far as the talking heads go, the pontifications they make are based on data that is at least a week old, so here's hoping you don't run out of weeks. Pullin' for ya from Texas where it appears we've got a pretty easy go of it this time around. Taking nothing for granted however; it's not too late for an October surprise...
BTW, I've had NO luck finding a poll on the Rocky/Wolfe race. Can you point me to anything that might be helpful?
Best of luck in WV.
FGS
..."Freeze, turkey!"
eBay? Is it possible he didn't feel compelled to contract for any polls since the conventional wisdom was he was a slam dunk? His campaign may in fact be pretty complacent given his past successes. That might be a good thang....for the good guys. He may not see the race as close until it's too late???
If his polling showed this race was over with, he would have released them already, IMO.
Hard to say. He may have the attitude that he was/is so far ahead that releasing a poll would only give some credence to his opponent; that his opponent is worthy of consideration. Just trying to think like a Dim politician. For whatever reasons, it is interesting. I'll be curious to see how badly your local fishwrap paints yer guys campaign.
FGS
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