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From Miller's article...

"Herewith, an update of the 13 hottest [Senate] races in the land:

ARKANSAS
The Matchup: Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R.) vs. attorney general Mark Pryor (D.)
Latest Poll: Pryor leading, 48 percent to 43 percent, by Opinion Research
The Line: If Hutchinson hadn't divorced his wife to marry a young staffer, he'd be running away with this race. It's no coincidence that Pryor's latest ad begins with these words: "Loving husband. Caring father." Hutchinson couldn't do the same thing with a straight face. Hutchinson may well lose, and he'll have nobody but himself to blame. If Tom Dasshole remains majority leader by a single vote, Republicans all over the country will have him to blame as well.

COLORADO
The Matchup: Sen. Wayne Allard (R.) vs. lawyer Tom Strickland (D.)
Latest Poll: Allard leading, 41 percent to 38 percent, by Ciruli
The Line: Allard's numbers remain low for an incumbent, and a recent Zogby poll actually gave Strickland a one-point margin. But this is a Republican state and Allard is helped by an uncompetitive gubernatorial race that will see Gov. Bill Owens (R.) rack up a huge victory. Very close, but give a slight edge to Allard.

GEORGIA
The Matchup: Sen. Max Cleland (D.) vs. Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R.)
Latest Poll: Cleland leading, 47 percent to 41 percent, by Mason-Dixon
The Line: Cleland is far too liberal for Georgia, but the GOP failed to find a candidate who can give him a serious challenge. Cleland ought to be hurt by his vote for partial-birth abortion, but Georgia Right To Life withdrew its endorsement of Chambliss this week. It claims he has added a "health-of-the-mother" exception to his pro-life stance, which he didn't hold during the primary. Chambliss blames the confusion on his campaign staff. Whatever the truth, the political fallout can't be good.

IOWA
The Matchup: Rep. Greg Ganske (R.) vs. Tom Harkin (D.)
Latest Poll: Harkin leading, 50 percent to 41 percent, by Research 2000
The Line: Folks in Iowa don't adore Harkin — he never wins big — but Republicans can't seem to find a candidate who can beat him. Ganske's hoping for a presidential visit sometime before November 5, but word out of the White House is that other states with closer races need Bush more.

MINNESOTA
The Matchup: Former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R.) vs. Sen. Paul Wellstone
Latest Poll: Wellstone leading, 47 percent to 41 percent, by the Star Tribune
The Line: A month ago, Wellstone looked much more vulnerable than he does now. Campaigning always has been one of the liberal senator's strong suits, and with the Senate in recess until after Election Day, he must be ranked the favorite. This is perhaps the only state in the nation where an incumbent voted against granting war authority to the president and it actually helped him. Coleman may still prevail, though it's more likely he'll spend much of November wondering why he didn't run for governor.

MISSOURI
The Matchup: Sen. Jean Carnahan (D.) vs. former Rep. Jim Talent (R.)
Latest Poll: Talent leading, 49 percent to 41 percent, by Republican firm American Viewpoint
The Line: Other October polls have shown different results, but the conventional wisdom on this race has it tipping into the GOP column. That's good news for conservatives, as Talent has the makings of a national star. But never underestimate a lingering sympathy vote for Carnahan, who came into office upon the death of her husband.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
The Matchup: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen vs. Rep. John Sununu (R.)
Latest Poll: Shaheen leading, 45 percent to 43 percent, by Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan
The Line: An exceedingly close race. Sununu's biggest challenge may be motivating the supporters of Sen. Bob Smith, whom he defeated in last month's primary. As fate would have it, Smith may now be in the position of driving Sununu to victory — all he needs to do is hit the campaign trail hard on behalf of the man who cost him his own job. Critics of Smith complained that he wasn't enough of a party loyalist; here is his chance to prove them wrong.

NEW JERSEY
The Matchup: Businessman Douglas Forrester (R.) vs. former senator Frank Lautenberg (D.)
Latest Poll: Lautenberg leading, 52 percent to 43 percent, by Quinnipiac
The Line: The Democrat's last-minute switcheroo appears to be working; Forrester probably would have beaten disgraced senator Bob Torricelli, but now he's trailing Lautenberg. This is a classic gender-gap contest, with men favoring Forrester (by seven points) but women favoring Lautenberg even more (by 24 points). More than half of the electorate thinks it was unfair for the Democrats to have replaced Torricelli, but it also looks ready to reward his replacement.

NORTH CAROLINA
The Matchup: Former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles (D.) vs. Elizabeth Dole (R.)
Latest Poll: Dole leading, 50 percent to 40 percent, by Mason Dixon
The Line: Bob Dole couldn't knock off Bill Clinton, but his wife is about to beat one of the former president's top aides. That's nothing to take for granted in North Carolina, which is a southern state that's plenty willing to elect Democrats.

OREGON
The Matchup: Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Secretary of State Bill Bradbury
Latest Poll: Smith leading, 52 percent to 34 percent, by Riley Research Associates
The Line: Democrats once hoped that this race would be close, but Smith is starting to pull away. It's probably over.

SOUTH DAKOTA
The Matchup: Sen. Tim Johnson (D.) vs. Rep. John Thune (R.)
Latest Poll: Thune leading, 43 percent to 40 percent, by CBS News
The Line: The one race that everybody thought would be this year's closest isn't disappointing. South Dakota is GOP-friendly when it comes to presidential races, but keeps sending liberals to the Senate. Thune hopes to defy this trend — though he'll still have to overcome the voter fraud that's evidently taking place in Indian country.

TENNESSEE
The Matchup: Former Gov. Lamar Alexander (R.) vs. Rep. Bob Clement (D.)
Latest Poll: Alexander leading, 50 percent to 34 percent, by Republican firm Ayres, McHenry, and Associates
The Line: It would have taken a big year for Democrats in order to make this race competitive. Alexander is so far in front that he's even running anti-Enron commercials against his opponent. That was supposed to be one of the Democrats' weapons against the Republicans this year. Only one question remains: Will Lamar wear plaid shirts on the Senate floor?

TEXAS
The Matchup: Attorney General John Cornyn (R.) vs. Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D.)
Latest Poll: Cornyn leading, 47 percent to 37 percent, by Blum and Weprin
The Line: Okay, that's not the latest poll: A pair by Democratic firms show this race much tighter — Kirk is up by one in the first, and Cornyn is up by two in the second. The Blum and Weprin poll is only a couple of days older, and seems more consistent with other findings. The bottom line is that Cornyn will almost certainly win this race, but that Kirk has given him and the GOP a scare that they will have to get used to experiencing in Texas, with its surging growth in the Democrat-leaning Hispanic population. Texas is about to become politically competitive again, especially when there are open seats available."

So, it looks like the GOP needs to hold their leads in Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota (WOO-HOOO!!), Tennessee, and Texas, and make comebacks in Arkansas (very feasible, IMHO), Georgia (quite do-able), and maybe Minnesota, while getting EX-Sen. Smith to get with the program in New Hampshire, and appeal to the decency of folks in NooJoisey who know what a National Embarrassment a Lautenburg win would be!!

Let's get hoppin', FReepers!!

FReegards...MUD