Round up the usual suspects.
Bombing probe will fail: US officials
By Matthew Lee and Stephen Collinson in Washington
October 15, 2002US officials believe the perpetrators of the deadly weekend car-bombing on the Indonesian resort island of Bali had foreign help and predict that the local investigation of the attack will lead nowhere, according to a State Department analysis.
The report, obtained by AFP on Monday, said the bombers were probably not native Balinese – mainly Hindus, whose tourism-dependent economy will likely be shattered by the loss of visitors – but rather were Islamic militants from abroad or Indonesians from other parts of the country.
In either case, the report said that the bombers, who may have received instruction at terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, Sulawesi in Indonesia or Mindanao in the southern Philippines, almost certainly had outside help in planning the attack.
"Whoever the actual perpetrators were, radical Muslims from Indonesia or elsewhere, we speculate that they had foreign help," the report added.
That assistance would have consisted of target surveillance, operational planning for the attack, the technical know-how to put together the bombs and where to place them for maximum casualty effect, it noted.
"It is likely that following the example elsewhere in the world, the foreign technical advisors had left the country by the time the attack took place," according to the report.
It did not address specifics of who might have been involved in Saturday's bombing which killed at least 183 people, mainly foreigners.
But it predicted that Indonesian authorities investigating the bombing will have no success in tracking the perpetrators down.
"Local authorities will work hard to solve this case, but their investigation will be fruitless and the perpetrators will neither be identified nor apprehended," the report said, adding concerns that the economic implications of the attacks might interfere with the probe.
US officials have privately warned in recent months that they do not believe President Megawati Sukarnoputri has done enough to crack down on radical Islamic groups – and cautioned that Indonesia may be a weak link in the US anti-terror campaign.
There also appears little confidence in Indonesia's capacity to protect foreigners, especially Americans, disquiet that has provoked a flurry of warnings to US citizens in the country and suggestions even before the bombing that some US diplomats could be withdrawn.
The State Department ordered the departure of non-essential diplomats and the families of all embassy employees from Indonesia on Sunday, citing a "mounting threat to Americans wherever they are in Indonesia".
The report suggested that cultural factors could torpedo the probe.
"There is also a danger that local officials under pressure from Jakarta to show results, may arrest – or shoot resisting arrest – the 'usual suspects' or local criminals, and pronounce the case solved, and Bali safe to travel to once again," the report said.
Regardless of the quality of the investigation, the report said that Indonesians, who place great emphasis on the Asian concept of "face", have been badly shaken by the bombing.
"This has occurred in a culture where the people are proud of their country, and preservation of face is a primary social trait," it said. "Indonesia and its people have been humiliated by this event."
"The authorities and the people must now face the fact that they have a serious terrorism problem on their hands, and must deal with it, or lose investment, tourism and credibility from the international community."
No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack but Indonesia-based Islamic groups like Laskar Jihad and the leader of Jemaah Islamiyah have been mentioned as possible al-Qaeda co-conspirators.
But the report said it did not matter exactly which brand of extremist is to blame.