Talent 47%- Carnahan 41% (What is the GOP Nov 6 Priortity?)

Fox News ^ | October 12, 2002 | AP

[RobFromGa]

ST. LOUIS, Mo.

[Teacher317]

there was a unofficial web-poll done by one of the local ABC stations here in Columbia, MO. The question was who would you vote for, for Senate? It was Talent - 69%, Carnahan - 41%.
Not that this was scientific by any means, but it was interesting nonetheless.

I'd say that was interesting... ABC is predicting 110% voter turnout! Who says the networks won't report on Democratic election fraud? ;^)

[RobFromGa]

Yeah, and at tleast this poll includes the 10% dead people expected to vote.

[hobbes1]

Actually, it is more than likely the increased visiblity/scrutiny that comes with the election less than a month away.Plus this poll was taken during the week, which favors the right.

My best guess is the momentum will start shifting towards the republicans in most of the close races, over the next couple of weeks. The democrats are being viciously outfoxed.

First Bush faked towards just going after Iraq, causing the Congressional dems to scream CONSULTATION. So he did, and set a pre election day deadline.He got what he wanted, and an extra 3 weeks of good press. Next up Homeland Sec. and the Economy.

Dems will not be able to keep union protections and will have to capitulate. Then on to....Bread and Butter/Pocketbook issues (the Dems THINK they want to focus here). Once that starts, Look for the fact that they are bereft of Solutions and long on Demagoguery to be a major factor in their down fall.

Plus the republicans have something like a 3 or 4 to 1 HArd money advantage, and Bush is raising Dollars by the Bushelful everywhere he goes.

The last still as yet unaccounted for factor in the Senate races, is the Re-Crystalization of Broken Glass Republicans in NJ. A minor sway in the Independants, coupled with increased (R) turnout, hopefully will spell LIGHTS OUT for Lousenberg, and Dasshole will be moving Back into the MINORITY leaders orifice where he belongs.

NEXT UP: Following up on Lotts Spinal implant surgery.

[Dave S]

I'm suspicious of a poll that moves that rapidly in one month. It happens, but there has to be something like a major scandal associated with it (like in NJ).

Why do you say that? While its likely that Talent has gained over the month, he could have stayed unchanged at 44% and gotten the results reported in the two waves of interviews. The 40% last month plus the 4.5 point error range means the true percent could be between 36% and 44%. This month the result is 47%. With the 3.5 point error range that means he could really be anywhere between 50% abd 44%.

For a more practical explaination, last month the widow was outspending Talent on advertising because of huge campaign by AFL-CIO. This month Talent is outspending the widow by what appears to be two to one, at least here in West St. Louis County.

Also it's possible that the news about the Lautenburg replacement on the NJ ballot may have reminded some voters of the "unusual" way in which the widow became senator in the first place.

[jwalsh07]

How do you really feel Jwalsh?

Pretty good Rob, Zogby has Talent up by seven and Hutchinson drawing even with Bubba 2. There's a whiff of good in the air, for now at least.

[savedbygrace]

I hadn't heard that. When does he face voters next, I wonder?

[savedbygrace]

And the last time Dims have worried about appearing partisan was . . . . ?

[Agamemnon]

It was Talent - 69%, Carnahan - 41%.

While I love the fact that Talent is comfortably ahead, and I've heard of people giving 110%, it's only been until now that I've ever seen that effort put into practice.

[tall_tex]

69+41=110%, now we know the number of dead folks that they expect to vote for the rats. ha

[RobFromGa]

There's a whiff of good in the air, for now at least.

I love the smell of Napalm in the morning...

[savedbygrace]

I'm on record as predicting a 51-48-1 pubbie majority. Hadn't thought about court challenges, though. Hmmmmm.

[PogySailor]

Does this factor in 150% Democrat turnout in downtown St. Louis?

[Dog Gone]

I'm suspicious of a poll that moves that rapidly in one month.

Zogby has a habit of making polls move rapidly just before an election. He tends to get things pretty close at the end.

Keep an eye open for his final poll on this race.

[Brytani]

While it's good to see Talent leading in polls, I doubt Zogby is taking into consideration voter fraud that will be rampant in parts of Missouri.

Figure the polls will be illegally kept open.

Figure areas will have more votes then registered voters, all voting democrat.

Figure democrat operatives will bring the homeless, mental patients and people will Alzheimer's to the polls, promising them cigarettes for democrat votes.

Figure the democrats will use the courts to change/break any laws on the books to insure a victory.

Finally, figure unless the GOP does something to stop voter fraud, Talent could lead by 20%, doesn't mean he will win.

[jwalsh07]

I love the smell of Napalm in the morning...

Duval lives in Ga?

[justlurking]

Add to that the fact that Chaffee has promised to "pull a Jeffords" [....]

If Chaffee is threatening to switch parties, then the GOP should call his bluff and find out where his loyalties really are.

Otherwise, they will constantly have to worry about whether he will bolt to the other side. Personally, I have no use for that kind of "fair-weather friend".

[hobbes1]

If they hold more than a One seat Majority, They should strip him of every single comittee that he belongs to, and make it impossible for him to do anything substantial for his state.maybe even toss him out of the caucus and be done with it.

[hobbes1]

Also it's possible that the news about the Lautenburg replacement on the NJ ballot may have reminded some voters of the "unusual" way in which the widow became senator in the first place.

It has in NJ

The polls show that the last-minute switch has made some voters, especially Republicans, mad.The latest Eagleton Poll found that 77 percent of the Republicans say they now plan to vote in the election compared to 61 percent two weeks ago.

[deport]

All this is a moot question if the Congress has adjourned the 107th as scheduled. They often miss their date of adjournment but they are scheduled for Oct. 27, 2002.

[ffrancone]

I think the quick movement in the poll was due to the fact that the latest poll was LIKELY voters. Not registered voters like the earlier poll.

Come to TakeBackCongress.org for a summary of polls over the last couple of months in all of the critical Senate races

The site also has a set of suggestions about how you can help take back the Senate and contacts to each of the critical campaigns.

Act today. Good intentions don't win elections. Action does.