Posted on 10/08/2002 3:36:37 AM PDT by Peach
It's 6:30 a.m. EST and we're waiting to go to the second press conference providing media and local updates on the Maryland sniper shootings. To date, the 13 year old boy has survived the evening and seems to be improving. Fox News mentioned that his aunt is a nurse. The police briefing at 6:15 a.m. mentioned Todd Beamer's Let's Roll comment and police are urging people to use caution, good judgment, but remain strong and try to continue with everyday life as much as possible.
Police had a search warrant last night (didn't say for who or where) related to the sniper shootings, but the search did not provide any information to LEO.
Except for one item: IF the next shooter(s) can adjust their position to eliminate the dark shadow altogether, the zero is STILL zero.
Well freepers I am going to attempt to organize my thoughts on this.
Throughout this I am using singular in reference to the killer. It may very well be a team effort. No conclusion is possible yet.
First the facts:
1. The killer/killers is using a firearm that fires a .224 diameter bullet.
2. So far the killer has made at least one head shot. The lady sitting on a bench in front of the post office.
3. Several witnesses have heard the sound of a rifle shot.
4. This superceeds the following statement. A freeper was able to give me information on the man killed in DC proper. The area is also relatively affluent. So far all of the shooting incidents have happened in affluent areas.
4. Most of the victims have been shot while in relatively affluent suburban areas.( The exception maybe the man killed in DC proper. I don't know enough about the area to know if it is affluent or not.)
5. The killer fires at most one shot.
6. The killer has scored a hit everytime except once. Then he fired through a pane of glass.
7.It appears that the killer has connected from long range at least once. Reports from yesterdays school shooting indicate that the shot came from 340 yards.
8. Monday's shooting also appears to be from the prone position and resulted in a wound to the boy lower left lung, stomach and pancreas.
Reasonable conjecture:
1. The killer is most definitely mobile in a vehicle of some sort. The killer is either firing from a vehicle or is in immediate proximity to a vehicle.
2. The killer does not appear to be motivated by race. His victims are a mixed variety of different races.
3. The killer shows some concern for escape routes. He is making most of his shots in areas near major through fares.
Speculation:
1. The killer is using a bolt action scoped rifle. Each time one and only one shot is fired. I think if anybody had access to a semiauto rifle more than one shot would have been fired at some time. Also a brass catcher would not have to be used. The one lady who was shot in the head would have been a difficult shot with iron sights only.
2. The killer is most likely using an actual .223 caliber rifle. This is the most common type of rifle available in that bullet diameter.
3. The killer is using FMJ type bullets. Two reasons for believing this. First several of the shots are trough and through. Meaning the victim has both an exit and an entry wound. Most .223 diameter bullets that are not FMJ designs have a very thin jacket that fragments on impact. The first shot at the michaels went through a glass window, part of the cash register and then a book rack. A thin jacket bullet would have broken up. Secondly, a varmit bullet would pulverize a very large area. Two of the vitims in this case had exit wounds about the size of a teacup. I have shot .223 FMJ bullets at animals and this correlates with my experinces. A Varmit bullet would leave a larger exit cavity I think.
4. The killer does not display any great knowledge of firearms. It is possible to learn to do everything that he has done with only one weeks training. Learning to shoot a scoped rifle is considerably easier than shooting an iron sight rifle.
5. The choice of a .223 round is unusual. A person with a high knowledge of firearms would realize that they are seriously undergunned with a .223. Most people will survive hits from this type of weapon. A .30 caliber cartridge would be a surer bet for killing people.
6. The range the shots are being taken from is most likely 200 yards or less. The one head shot would tend to support this as well as the points made in speculations 4 and 5. A .223 would be less accurate at greater ranges due to less residual speed and the greater effect of wind on the lighter projectile.
7. It is highly unlikely that a 22-250 or 220 Swift is being used for the shots. This killer seems to use the KISS methodology. Keep It Simple Stupid. Also, if we accept the they are using FMJ bullets the killer would have to hand load FMJ bullets in those cartridges as I do not believe that anyone handloads FMJ bullets in 22-250 or 22 Swift etc... It is only a .223 cartridge which is commonly found with .224 sized FMJ bullets. This would indicate greater knowledge of firearms which I believe would leave someone to choose a different caliber weapon.
8. The killer has been trained with a rudimentary method of operation that minimizes his risk. First, fire only one shot. Second, do not be too picky, shoot whatever target is available. Third, take you shot from an area which has good escape routes. Fourth, do not stick around and gawk.
9. Again I think the shooter is not an expert. Two other things about the shooters skill level come to mind. First of all he tried a shot through a window. Somebody who has extensively studied shooting would know this was a bad idea as the window can deflect a bullet. Second the use of a .223 round has one significant advantage to a novice shooter. It has very little recoil. It makes a lot of noise but does not have much bite. A novice shooter would have a much easier time hitting within this than with a larger rifle.
10. I think it is likely that two people are being used for the shooting team. One to drive and act as a lookout the other as the trigger man. So far the shooter has not made a mistake like taking a shot in the immediate presence of other people. It is hard to be focused on your shooting and looking all around yourself for potential witnesses.
11. It appears that the killer is not taking all of his shots from a vehicle since the shooters position for yeterdays killing and one of the killings on Thursday has been discovered.
11. The shooter is taking shots from inside a vehicle. The vehicle enclosure would serve to muffle the shot somewhat. The transfer from a vehicle to an outside shooting position would leave the shooter vulnerable to discovery. It would be much less notable if a window was simply left open on a vehicle, which then drove away. This follows the kiss rule exactly.
12. The killer has displayed his relative lack of firearms knowledge again. The wounds on the boy hit on Monday appear to be lower down his body. It is likely that the killer did not adjust the point of impact for the longer range.
13. The killer has changed his method of operation. The first series of shootings were all clumped together. It is likely that the killer was familiar with that immediate area. He may either have lived, worked, visitied friends in that area or spent some time scouting the area. The killer is now taking longer range shots and is not clustering his shootings. He is likely scouting out areas to hunt and then returning to those areas when he is ready to pull the trigger. He is also taking longer shots since people are now looking for him. This show in the survival of the boy and the woman hit on Friday. Neither shot would appear to be as accurate nor have as much punch as the shots on Thursday/Wednesday.
Conclusion:
We are looking for a two person team. It is obvious that in some cases the killer is shooting from outside of his vehicle. The following sentance is wrong. I feel that they are probably shooting from inside an enclosed vehicle, van, truck with camper shell, rv, service van etc. The shooter leaves the immediate presence of each shooting asap after making the shot. The shooter is using a scoped .223 rifle with FMJ bullets. Look for a vehicle with Maryland tags on it. The change in tempo of the shootings from Wednesday-Thursday to Friday and today may mean that some fundamental change has been made in the method of operation. Either a different shooter, different vehicle, or the shooter is assuming that he is at greater risk due to the increase in awareness of everyone in the area
Question:
Is the shooter a domestic nut or terrorist? I believe that a domestic nut would be more likely to use a larger caliber weapon. One poster yesterday took issue with the preceeding statement. They think that a .224 bullet is adequate for this task. I still think a domestic nut would use a larger caliber weapon.They would also be more likely to be operating alone. I would have to believe that we are looking at some form of foreign inspired/directed terrorist.
Disclaimer: I do not pretend to have all of the answers. The above post is what merely seems reaonable to me. I could very well be wrong on many of the individual items in the list. I will try to update this on a regular basis.
Fellow Traveler,, thanks for your post..will read it when I get back on line.
MAYBE his target was outside the store, the target moved, the shot missed and went throught the store window.
Oh GEEEEEZ!
I do believe we have a alternating driver-shooter 2 men team. the "new" shooter appears to be more comfortable firing from outside the van, while the first shooter did it from inside the van. The latest shooter seems to be the weakest link and could be responsible for their being caught, unless the other one gets rid of him first...
Thanks for the info....I DID ask anyone who knew otherwise to feel free to post because I was posting from little to no first hand knowledge. I"m not trying to pass along erroneous info on purpose (sigh) Thanks!
This from another thread running on FR. So we weren't crazy and it wasn't just WND saying BOLO for two Hispanic looking men.
I agree with you. I was suspicious of another pathetic minority appointment when I first saw him, but he certainly doesn't come accross as an idiot. He might be a bit overwhelmed by the whole thing, but heck, any chief no matter how excellent would have to be...
There are a number of regular cars where the rear seat folds down giving you access to the trunk. This allows you to store long items like skis. In such a car, you could be prone on the trunk/folded-rear-seat, pop the trunk open a crack to get a shot, shoot, close the trunk after the shot, and scoot
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.