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Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Predictions
Center for Politics ^
| 10/3/2002
| LS
Posted on 10/03/2002 3:46:32 PM PDT by LS
Larry Sabato, UVA political scientist who has a website devoted to election analysis, issued his most recent analysis.
1) The Senate (he says) is so close (AFTER New Jersey) that it could be a net +2 for GOP or net +2 for Dems. He still has Johnson slightly ahead of Thune (and surprisingly made no change, despite new polling data) and Carnahan ahead of Talent (but Talent closing fast). He has Cleleand still favored, but Chambliss (in a surprise) closing.
HE HAS THE TORICELLI/LOUSENBERG SCAM MAKING THAT STATE NOW "LEAN DEM" WHEN IT WAS LEANING GOP!
He has MN a tossup, and Colorado a tossup from "Leans Republican. Texas now "Leans Republican," as does NH (from "tossup" categories). He has AK leaning Dem now.
He apparently either has not seen the new Ganske/Harkin #s, or doesn't believe them, because that race is either a "tossup" or "leans Dem" SLIGHTLY.
On the House, the picture is quite bright: he has the GOP with 221 "safe, likely, or leaning" seats and only 7 tossups. This is down from 14. This means that as of right now, there is virtually no way the Dems can get the House, and they won't even gain seats. They will likely LOSE seats.
He has the governors races as anywhere from +1 GOP to +7 Dems. He thinks Simon is sunk.
TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2002; house; senate
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I don't know this guy's track record. I think SD, MO, and NJ are still trending our way; and I think Iowa is a possible pickup. But the House is clearly not in play now. Little Dick, "El Poco Loco," knows it.
1
posted on
10/03/2002 3:46:32 PM PDT
by
LS
To: LS
HE HAS THE TORICELLI/LOUSENBERG SCAM MAKING THAT STATE NOW "LEAN DEM" WHEN IT WAS LEANING GOP! He's wrong on this one! It's going to backfire big time on the NJ rats.
To: AmericaUnited
SOrry I posted twice---it didn't appear to "take."
3
posted on
10/03/2002 3:49:39 PM PDT
by
LS
To: LS
I haven't seen the new Harkin/Ganske numbers. What are they? All I have heard about is Republican internal polling that had Ganske within 4% which means absolutely nothing. Leaked internal polls are simply to keep the fundraising going.
4
posted on
10/03/2002 3:52:49 PM PDT
by
shempy
To: shempy
Maybe I didn't read correctly, but I didn't see "internal" polls in the stories I read. I saw the 4-5% as a genuine poll #.
5
posted on
10/03/2002 4:00:15 PM PDT
by
LS
To: LS
I don't know this guy's track record.He's like Zogby - he never met a demonrat he didn't like.
6
posted on
10/03/2002 4:02:44 PM PDT
by
mombonn
To: LS
This NJ thing could backfire on the Democraps nationwide. Changing the rules like this is unAmerican, unless you're a diehard-lefty-pinko-yellow-dog democrap.
7
posted on
10/03/2002 4:05:39 PM PDT
by
A. Morgan
To: KQQL
fyi
To: A. Morgan
This NJ thing could backfire on the Democraps nationwide. Not unless there is some strength and noise placed behind it!
There seems almost no mention of it in the news, and when it is, it favors the Democrat view or obscures the legal points - at least what I have observed.
9
posted on
10/03/2002 4:21:38 PM PDT
by
Gritty
To: LS
He has AK leaning Dem now. This guy is seriously uninformed. Stevens (R) is leading Vondersaar (D) by at least 25 points. It's not even a serious challange.
To: LS
He has AK leaning Dem now Alaska? This would be bigger than the Good Friday earthquake.
To: RightWhale
AK is not Alsaka it's Bubba's State
12
posted on
10/03/2002 4:34:45 PM PDT
by
KQQL
To: RightWhale
AK is not Alsaka it's Bubba's State
13
posted on
10/03/2002 4:35:01 PM PDT
by
KQQL
To: All
Prof.Larry is good....Not great..but good
14
posted on
10/03/2002 4:36:32 PM PDT
by
KQQL
To: RightWhale
I think he meant AR, not AK.
15
posted on
10/03/2002 4:38:38 PM PDT
by
Dog Gone
To: Dog Gone
GOV Races for 2002.
Leaning /Likely RAT Take over from GOP/IND:
MI,WI,IL,PA,KS,NM,MA,ME
Toss up : AZ,SC,TN,MD
Leaning /Likely GOP Take over from RATS:
NH,HI,AK,Al
16
posted on
10/03/2002 4:40:15 PM PDT
by
KQQL
To: Torie; BlackRazor; deport
!
17
posted on
10/03/2002 4:41:03 PM PDT
by
KQQL
To: LS
Larry Sabato is a thoughtful scholar. (Echols Scholar at UVa).
He was also (just out of college in the 1970's) a campaign manager for a very liberal Democratic candidate for Virginia Governor.
Now speaks with a tone of moderation, but I think old leanings are still there.
He's very knowledgeable about Virginia politics.
To: LS
Notice there's no mention of Montana - a state where W got like 60 percent and where the Dem incumbent, Baucus, would have been vulnerable to Racicot. But Racicot didn't care enough about taking back the Senate to become a candidate.
To: RightWhale
Ops I meant LS made a mistake....I think he meant AR
not AK...you are right AK is Alaska.....But
the the senate race in AR leans RAT
20
posted on
10/03/2002 4:43:37 PM PDT
by
KQQL
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