Posted on 10/02/2002 11:30:00 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.
The United States has not been hit by a hurricane of any category since 1999.
That streak is about to end.
You are not "technically" out of the woods, but I certainly wouldn't pick Houston/Galveston in anyone's pool on this.
Sleep well.
What are they like?
"Hit" is such a relative term.
Tropical storm winds are coming onshore NOW.
The eye is forecast to make landfall at 1 PM CT tomorrow.
The reclassification was due to the extent of damage and not the measured winds. The measured winds never exceeded a cat 3. The estimates are due to damages suffered.
A point to ponder: Last year I spent the better part of 2 months arguing a point to Stacy Stewart at the hurricane center that Gabrielle at 980 mb with recon winds of 77kts, surface winds of 70kts on recon, was a hurricane. He spent the better part of 2 months refuting the argument, which by the way was taught to me by Bob case, that instead of having winds stronger than the pressure reports in a deepening system, we need time to get it to the surface. I took a completely different side on this, and still do.
Still I think what is going on now proves the value of the Saffir Simpson scale as the objective parameter for classification. For now we wee THE OPPOSITE idea being used. A storm with crashing pressure is jumped to a cat 4, based on a flight level wind that may or may not be a quick burst, BUT IS ABOVE THE PRESSURE OF A STORM 10 DAYS EARLIER that had similar strong winds, over warmer water, and a lower pressure, and was only a cat 3.
My objection: it seems the inconsistancies here are such that we do not have objective criteria. So it comes down to what the given forecaster wants. Since this subjectivity rests with TPC, it makes the rest of us slaves to them in that we are forced to react. Its as if it is intentional, this one storm is, one storm isnt criteria, meaning there is no way for anyone outside of the hurricane center to judge what is and what isnt.
It doesnt change the forecast from me. Winds around 120 at landfall between 93 and 93.25 west. It is one thing to argue about a forecast, however something must be done to clear up the confusion over what is and isnt this or that.
Unless of course, its confusion by design.
Interestingly enough such an upgrading SUPPORTS WHAT BOB CASE TAUGHT ME AND WHAT I AGREE WITH, but it cant be one time its this and one time its that. It should be objective. Once storms are in this range, the pressure fluctuations up and down are a big deal with wind speed and the less the chance that one can have the kind of arguments that occur with weaker storms. So if this was a consistent type of idea, one would not see me posting like this, but since this is back and forth, it is baffling to me. The recon can not always find the strongest wind in a storm. Maybe it didnt find it with Isidore. But it still makes one wonder how 934 and a tight perfect eye over 87 degree water is a cat 3, while 941 over slightly cooler water is a 4.
Its 4:05 pm and Lili is a done deal. Houston/Galveston is a warm norther and not much more. The storm will very near or a bit east of where Audrey hit in 1957 and have about the same wind. Models at midday are a bit east of earlier, in support of the TPC 92.5 landfall more so than my latest at 93.25. The track further east, if right, would lessen the chance of a devastating hit on the golden triangle near the mouth of the Sabine. Now its a matter of slight adjustments east and west between 92.5 and 93.5 for landfall. It appears strongly that the Texas rule will hold again for October
My eyes are on the eye of Kyle and the ideas on it have been listed extensively and exhaustively below. The west move has not yet started, but such a move would mean a 1 in 50 year scenario could happen, but this one mimicking Ginger in the Carolinas 1971, not Jerry in Texas 1989.
Upon crossing 90 west, with or without the spat I have about classification consistencies, Lili with not only be the strongest hurricane to hit this part of the gulf this late in 50 years, but also since we started keeping records as its now outdueling the 1949 storm. Again I think it will hit with winds around 120, or the top end of the range given from last week. Hopefully this will be addressed this year, much like the subtropical idea was addressed last year. It will be another step in developing enough confidence so the United Front utopian idea can become reality out there, even for the rebel lemmings such as I ( even Joe Sobel sometime, now)
Lets see, who can we blame all this on???I got it, El Nino, it causes the lack of storms, then it causes too many storms, then it causes them to be weak, and now it causes them to be strong.
A page from my global warming rants.
Stay tuned.
Actually, hurricane season lasts from June 1st to November 30.
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).
I've been using a synopsized version of this almost all day long in my discussion and analysis on ATRW.
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