The Latest Tracking Polls

Zogby ^ | 9-23-02 | Zogby

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

These polls came out yesterday:

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Lamar Alexander (R) leading Bob Clement (D 45 to 37 percent in the Tennessee race for Senate.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows John Cornyn (R) leading Ron Kirk (D), 42 to 30 percent in the Texas race for Senate.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Elizabeth Dole (R) leading Erskine Bowles (D) 55 to 32 percent in the North Carolina Senate race.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) leading Douglas Forrester (R) 39 to 34 percent. For more analysis of this race and early access to future tracking polls.

-The latest MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby poll shows Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) leading Jim Talent (R) 48 to 40 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Norm Coleman (R) leading Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) 47 to 41 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Tim Penny (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R) each with 28 percent of the vote to Roger Moe's (D) 23 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) tied with Tom Stickland (D) 42 to 42 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby poll shows Mark Pryor (D) leading Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-AR) 45 to 43 percent, within the margin of error.

[Coop]

You are making a lot of sense. But few will listen.

Many of us listen. Few believe the "Zogby is God" mantra.

[Coop]

People thought Zogby was pretty good, until he showed a big pro-Gore shift in the last 2 days, which everyone thought was bunk. He was right.

Look at the numbers, partner. Most all of the polls showed a close race, most all of the polls showed some kind of a shift.

[Wolfstar]

I appreciate your intelligent analysis of the overall national trend in 2000. But it is hard for me to get it through my head that public opinion is really that fluid.

In any case, my point was that the results in California that year are dramatic proof that Zogby can be just as wrong as any other pollster. When he had Bush and Gore tied, yet Gore won by around 13-15 points, I'd say Zogby blew that one big time. The empirical evidence demonstrates that, despite his reputation, Zogby is NOT the most consistently accurate pollster out there.

You are right that, at best, polls may have some value in showing trends. But as the Zogby California 2000 results demonstrate, they are only marginally better than reading entrails or tea leaves. Their real value to the media and politicians is in whatever ability they may have to manipulate public opinion.

[185JHP]

Thanks. "Not all things are what they seem - but everything *is* exactly what it *is*.

[OldFriend]

Zogby thought the dems would be able to pull off that heist in Florida. Just negating the military vote wasn't enough!!!

Thanks to g-d.