The Latest Tracking Polls

Zogby ^ | 9-23-02 | Zogby

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

These polls came out yesterday:

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Lamar Alexander (R) leading Bob Clement (D 45 to 37 percent in the Tennessee race for Senate.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows John Cornyn (R) leading Ron Kirk (D), 42 to 30 percent in the Texas race for Senate.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Tony Sanchez (D), 44 to 32 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Elizabeth Dole (R) leading Erskine Bowles (D) 55 to 32 percent in the North Carolina Senate race.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) leading Douglas Forrester (R) 39 to 34 percent. For more analysis of this race and early access to future tracking polls.

-The latest MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby poll shows Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) leading Jim Talent (R) 48 to 40 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Norm Coleman (R) leading Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) 47 to 41 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Tim Penny (I) and Tim Pawlenty (R) each with 28 percent of the vote to Roger Moe's (D) 23 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) besting Bill McBride (D), 49 to 39 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) tied with Tom Stickland (D) 42 to 42 percent.

-The latest MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby poll shows Mark Pryor (D) leading Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R-AR) 45 to 43 percent, within the margin of error.

[Wolfstar]

CLICK HERE for proof of just how wrong Zogby can be. The link is to an FR post the day before the 2000 election. Zogby had Bush down to Gore by 1 that day, and his final California poll showed Bush and Gore tied. When the actual votes were tallied, the spread was around 13-15 points (don't recall the exact number). Proof positive that Zogby does not have a lock on polling accuracy. All polls should be viewed with a rather jaundiced and skeptical eye, since the point really is to manipulate and create opinion rather than merely to report on it.

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Why is Carnahan winning? She's the #1 recipient of DNC $$$ and liberal press whitewashing....if she loses, the Senate changes hands immediately. Never underestimate the power of the press to change voter's minds...they are printing DNC PR as if it's news, and will lie, cheat and bribe for votes.

[My2Cents]

Or, as H.L. Mencken (I think it was) once wrote, "No one ever went broken underestimating the American people." In short, Carnahan is leading because at least half the voters are horribly gullible.

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Future Senator Forrester was on Hannity's radio show this afternoon. He's my kind of candidate - direct, smart and oh, he's not a criminal either.

That's good. I don't trust Zogby after election 2000. He may have nailed the final results, but those final results were the result of a whole bunch of cheating, fraud and mischief by VOA, DNC, AP, AFL-CIO, NEA, NAACP, ATLA, FSC, etc....and Zogby knew this how? His poll gave legitimacy to that dirty, rotten Dem. scheme of an election.

Eyes opened. Elephants never forget.

Oh, and (minus the Dem. dirty tricks) George W. Bush would have won the popular vote.

[My2Cents]

Thanks for the link and the walk down memory lane. Actually, no one predicted the outcome of the 2000 Presidential election because the difference between Bush and Gore was statistically insignificant -- considering the margin of error (which there is in the tabulation of actual ballots), the election, nationally, was a tie. If they had done a recount of every vote cast in the 2000 Presidential election, Bush might have won the popular vote by 500,000 instead of Gore -- the numbers could have switched that much, and maybe more.

Polls seem to have their value in showing trends. Bush was slowly widening the gap with Gore up until the DUI revelation. Then Bush's numbers stalled. Zogby's results showing Gore up by 2% by the weekend before the election indicated a spurt for Gore, and it was likely a real lead. By election day, the results were tied, showing that the DUI-effect had been spent and that voters were swinging back to Bush. It's my non-professional opinion that had the 2000 election been held on Wednesday instead of Tuesday, Bush would have won a narrow, but decisive victory in the popular vote. Had the election been held on Monday, he may have lost by 1%. By election day, the trend was back toward Bush; the election simply occurred just as Bush's and Gore's support met in the middle.

[Bombard]

As a resident of Missouri I have not seen the dynamics of the race change enough to warrent as big a gain as is shown for Carnahan. For all who worship Zogby, remember that while he got the overall vote close he was all over the board on what states would go for Bush or Gore. Besides if these guys cloud predict the final totals why would we even bother to vote.HAVE FAITH!!!

[GnuHere]

Good question...maybe the answer is, because of ignoramuses like this guy. Here's a letter to the editor of the Springield (MO) News-Leader from today:
(For added amusement, note his attempt at spelling "ballot".)



Carnahan more than ‘lap dog’

Regarding Larry Posey’s Sept. 17 Ozark Voices, “Carnahan should find time to debate,” I was, to use his words, “amazed and flabbergasted.”

While it was true Sen. Jean Carnahan’s name was not on the general election ballet, it was common knowledge that a vote for her late husband was a vote for her. Otherwise all of us who voted for Mel Carnahan must have been hoping he would somehow come back to life, or we figured that a dead Mel Carnahan was just as good, and maybe better, than John Ashcroft.

Posey puts way too much faith in political debates. They can hardly be called true debates anyway. Answers to softball questions from a panel are quickly turned into stump speeches. Facts are danced around and accusations and mud is flung with reckless abandon.

Sometimes just looking good can be the deciding factor. And need I remind you that many people thought President Bush won the debates against Al Gore simply because he didn’t trip over his own tongue, fuzzy math be damned.

The intelligent voter already knows where Sen. Jean Carnahan stands on the issues. And if you’re not sure, it doesn’t take too much effort to look up her voting record.

As for Jim Talent, I’m sorry, but he really does look like someone other kids used to beat up in grade school. You better believe that, should he win, he’d be in the pocket of GOP leadership in the Senate. He’ll vote exactly the way they want him to vote, no questions asked.

Sen. Trent Lott would have his own little lap dog.

Jay Colson, Springfield

[GnuHere]

The ad hominem attack on Jim Talent's looks also made it great material for our local paper to publish. (Sarcasm off.)

[Darlin']

Thanks for posting this in such an easy, quick read format. :)

It looks pretty good for most of the Rs right now but you can never trust the Ds to play fair. We're still 7 weeks from the election and Rs can't afford to sit back and think the election is won. Wazza madda wid the Rs in CO, MO, AR and NJ ? The Ds seem beatable in each of those states.

[Southbound]

The widow Carnahan may not be as far up as this "poll" seems to indicate; it was a phone poll of only 501 likely voters and was commissioned by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (as liberal a lying piece of birdcage-lining trash as has ever existed). I have been frequently polled by Zogby and was not for this one, so I suspect it was only in the St. Louis - Kansas City areas. Take my word for it, except for occasional dimwits like that guy in Springfield, outstate Missouri does NOT support the widder Carnahan. Mel, in his first term, gave us the largest tax increase in the history of this state, and we haven't forgotten. He was also an avid Clinton supporter. Anyway, this is why I have a bumper sticker that says, "SAVE A TREE - CANCEL THE POST-DISPATCH".

[Torie]

You are making a lot of sense. But few will listen.

[Torie]

I suspect it was only in the St. Louis - Kansas City areas

Ludicrous. If that were the case, Carnahan would be up by a lot more. Any pollster caught doing such a thing would be out of business. The risk reward ratio simply isn't worth it, even if the pollster were in fact corrupt.

[rb22982]

The LP candidate pulling in 6%?? I smell another Slade Gordon.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

What's with the high number of undecideds 7 weeks before the election?

Waiting for the liberal press to tell them what to think?

[NeoCaveman]

The LP candidate pulling in 6%?? I smell another Slade Gordon.

IF the LP does us in again...I will scream. They purposely try to spoil our elections. Kind of like the Green Party in reverse.

[185JHP]

Is Zogby a U.S. pollster? Are U.S. pollsters allowed to practice taqiyah?

[The Person]

Zogby was pretty accurate in the 2000 election, though less accurate at the state level than nationally. But he's pretty good at tracking election views.

[The Person]

Oh, please. How many times are people going to keep saying this? Nearly all the polls showed a close national race in 2000, including his. We got a close national race. Most were three-day tracking polls - can't remember if Zogby's was or not. But the DWI revelation caused a definite shift towards Gore, a shift that took longer to measure in multiple-day tracking polls, but it was there nonetheless.

But this is EXACTLY what Zogby showed. People thought Zogby was pretty good, until he showed a big pro-Gore shift in the last 2 days, which everyone thought was bunk. He was right.

[SoDak]

I wish I knew. It's been a frustrating summer for Republicans in SD, and I wish I could put my finger on why. I fear we may be turning into West Minnesota. We could conceivably end up sending 3 RATS to Washington in the next Congress. It all hinges really on whether or not the clear GOP majority feels strongly enough to come out and vote.

I think Thune got nastier than he should have earlier in the summer. He was well ahead in May, but took the gloves off and started hitting back. Johnson probably would have looked like a bully if John would have just let him slug away. I just don't think attack ads work very well anymore, at least here. The Republican candidate for governor is CRUISING with a 20 point lead, and he's yet to say a bad thing about anyone .

[OldFriend]

There are two Zogby brothers. Both active in politics. One is an Arab activist and the other 'arranges' polls to suit their agenda.