I wouldn' say that Zogby necessarily "disagrees".

Look at how low those numbers are. I think that Zogby just didn't go as far as other pollsters to count the "leaners". I'd be willing to bet that the same polling group with "if you had to pick one candidate today, who are you leaning towards" would favor the republican by several points. We've seen this before... Bush's favorability numbers showed mush lower with Zogby than with others, but he never sold it as Bush's popularity slipping, he just had four categories instead of two. It's all in how you ask the question.

If I was Forester, I'd be happy with those numbers if the election was tomorrow. An incumbent (and well known) Senator at 39??? In a two way race? Sounds like people have made up their minds not to vote for the Torch. They just aren't convinced they should support Forester.

This poll tells us what we already knew. The Republican's support is wide but shallow. A 12 point lead could still be a loss over a reletively minor mistake. 39% sounds like the hard-core base. The rest will vote for our guy.... or not at all (which is the only danger).

81 posted on 09/23/2002 1:28:12 PM PDT by IMRight

Yep your money is right, Da Torch will lose in NJ ....but the race will be close......

Also, Allard will win in CO..........

82 posted on 09/23/2002 1:43:51 PM PDT by KQQL

But there are five other polls showing a double digit Forrester lead (three independent polls by SurveyUSA, two GOP polls by Public Opinion Strategies and a U/I firm). Plus Forrester hasn't been down in the 34% range in over three months. I'm just not buying that poll.

83 posted on 09/23/2002 2:20:35 PM PDT by Coop

To: ThePythonicCow

Cool - lotsa (R) leads.

But no R senate unless ....

84 posted on 09/23/2002 2:23:42 PM PDT by cinFLA

I hope you're right. The good news is that Allard has led in every single poll I've seen on this race (except two from Jun 01 - one tie, one 2-pt deficit). The bad news is this lead is only 1/10th of a point. :-)

85 posted on 09/23/2002 2:28:13 PM PDT by Coop

Owen will pusg Allard through.....

Owen will win a landslide and Allard in Squeek...
Approx 5-6%

86 posted on 09/23/2002 2:48:04 PM PDT by KQQL

Allard 46% Strickland 37% Denver Post 7/8-14 4%
Allard 43% Strickland 40% Stanley (L) 4% Garin-Hart-Yang (D) 7/27-30 4%
Allard 42% Strickland 34% Rocky Mt. News / News 4 8/1-11 4%
Allard 46% Strickland 35% Stanley (L) 6% Hill Research (R) 8/24-25 4%
Allard 38% Strickland 36% Stanley (L) 6% Garin-Hart-Yang (D) 9/6-8 4%
Allard 42% Strickland 42% Zogby International 9/17-18 4.5%

87 posted on 09/23/2002 2:53:28 PM PDT by KQQL

To: StopDemocratsDotCom

Carnahan must be stopped. She's a disgrace to the womanly race. For victory & freedom!!!

88 posted on 09/23/2002 2:57:39 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy

I do cautiously tend to agree that Allard will win. His campaign hasn't exactly been inspiring, but the registration numbers in CO favor the GOP. And you're right about Owens - a very popular governor. One of the few that doesn't seem to have been damaged by the anti-incumbency shift in polling.

89 posted on 09/23/2002 2:59:25 PM PDT by Coop

I wonder if Gore's stand on Iraq will make some Rats in
senate and congress to oppose Dickey and Daschle on on Iraq resolution..

=

I would love to see more Rats Oppose W on Iraq, because it will help the GOP in Nov

90 posted on 09/23/2002 3:09:30 PM PDT by KQQL

I really don't know what Gore was thinking.

91 posted on 09/23/2002 3:16:02 PM PDT by Coop

I said it on another thread. Bush needs to push for a resolution that is just stiff enough to force Wellstone and Johnson to vote against it. It helps (but only a little) if they vote for a watered down version since it may insult their leftist base. BUT getting them to vote against a popular resolution is exactly what we need.

92 posted on 09/23/2002 3:23:46 PM PDT by IMRight

The Torch poll is dead wrong.....Forrester is leading .

Yes, just last week the polls showed the Torch running well behind Forrester.

93 posted on 09/23/2002 3:30:17 PM PDT by Jorge

But I could easily be persuaded that the real poll is:

Who will you vote for?
Definitely Torch - 39%
Leaning Torch - 3%
Leaning Forester - 17%
Definitely Forester- 34%
Undecided/Will not vote - 7%

Or something to that effect. I suspect that there are lots of NJ voters who are not exactly excited about voting for Forester, nor are they excited about giving the Senate to the Republicans, but they can't bear to vote for the crook.

One little thing could push the vote back to Torch, but if the election were today? Forester by 10. JMHO

94 posted on 09/23/2002 3:30:41 PM PDT by IMRight

Yeah, 'fraid you're right. Zogby was excoriated in 2000--right up till the time it was shown that HIS poll was right.

That's because his polls were dead wrong until the day before the election, when all of a sudden his number swung all over the place thanks to his deep RAT connections. We've been over this so many times in the past that I'm beginning to wonder if you're a Zogby relative!

95 posted on 09/23/2002 3:38:43 PM PDT by Timesink

To: BlackRazor; SoDak

"Any word about the Senate race in the Dakota's? Zogby tracking (missing from the above list) showed Tim Johnson with a 46-43 lead over John Thune."

Any news from Thune headquarters? Why can't they get the job done? Thune was already a congressman, why not a Senator? This makes no sense to me.

Daschle's fake empire needs to be dismantled bit by bit.

96 posted on 09/23/2002 3:46:45 PM PDT by floriduh voter

Carnahan "bounces back" in latest poll

This story was published in A-section on Sunday, September 22, 2002.

By Jo Mannies
Post-Dispatch Political Correspondent
Sen. Jean Carnahan's skeet-shooting may have helped her regain some momentum in Missouri's closely contested U.S. Senate race.

The Post-Dispatch's latest statewide poll by Zogby International shows Carnahan, a Democrat, with a slight edge over her Republican rival, former Rep. Jim Talent. Of the 501 likely voters polled statewide last week, 47.6 percent supported Carnahan, compared with 40.3 percent for Talent.

The poll indicates that Carnahan's higher numbers are due primarily to one factor: her higher standing among men.

The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points, which means that any individual number could be as much as 4.5 percentage points higher or lower. That still keeps the contest in the neck-and-neck category.

The new poll numbers are at odds with those in the August poll, which showed Talent with a one-point lead. The latest poll is more in line with the April poll that gave Carnahan a similar edge.

Pollster John Zogby said the new poll signals that the contest's dynamics have changed - at least temporarily - as the candidates go into the final six weeks.

"She stopped his momentum," Zogby said. The reason is clear, he added. "She really bounced back among men. It looks like skeet shooting and a few well-placed ads did the trick."

The poll was taken as the candidates and their allies launched the heaviest barrage of TV ads so far, both positive and negative. Carnahan's union supporters in the St. Louis area were particularly busy this week, with pro-Carnahan rallies and anti-Talent events.

And Carnahan's skeet-shooting foray at a farm a few weeks ago was part of her campaign's concentration on wooing male voters in the wake of her dismal showing among men in last month's poll.

The new poll indicates that such efforts have paid off:

* Talent held only a slight edge among the men polled this time, down from his 13-point advantage last month. And those men polled viewed Carnahan far more favorably than their counterparts did last month.

* Carnahan's support has surged in the St. Louis area, where many of the new ads have aired. In last month's poll, Talent was slightly ahead among likely area voters. This time, the region's poll participants were solidly behind Carnahan by a 12-point margin.

* Carnahan also saw a sharp improvement in her favorable-unfavorable ratings. The change is likely a result of her ads. Talent's didn't change.

Zogby cautioned that such swift shifts in voter sentiments is a signal that voters are volatile, and could just as quickly change their minds and swing back to Talent. "This contest continues to be close," the pollster said.

The poll also offers other warnings to both Senate candidates.

Overall, both Talent and Carnahan appear to be in weaker positions than they were last spring. The latest poll showed both candidates with fewer supporters than they had in the April poll.

The percentage of undecided voters has shot up. Just over 10 percent of those polled last week said they weren't sure whom they would support. That's more than double the percentages in the August and April polls.

Carnahan's improved standing statewide coincides with voters' improved opinion of how the state is doing. Almost half of those polled thought the state was moving in the right direction.

No contest for auditorMeanwhile, state Auditor Claire McCaskill - who has done little campaigning - held a huge lead over her rivals for re-election. This poll is the first independent sampling of the contest.

Of those polled, 49.7 percent backed McCaskill, a Democrat, and 21.5 percent supported Republican Al Hanson. He's a convicted felon who's been disavowed by his own party. Almost seven percent backed various third-party candidates.

After those polled were told of Hanson's conviction, 52 percent said they were less likely to vote for him.

Bridging the gender gapsA year ago, Carnahan and McCaskill had talked of promoting their status as Missouri's first all-woman statewide ticket.

But in recent weeks, the two have avoided being seen together. The state Democratic Party has played down its campaign appeals to women. One activist said the aim was to avoid turning off male voters.

The poll indicates that the change in tactics hasn't hurt Carnahan's following among women. Among the women polled last week, Carnahan held a 16 percentage-point advantage: 52.9 percent to 36.7 percent for Talent.

Alan Hayden, a retired landscaper who lives in Rock Hill, was among those area voters who have been swayed by Carnahan's message in recent weeks. Hayden has been particularly influenced by Carnahan's call for corporate accountability - and the AFL-CIO ads that portray Talent as a tool of big business.

"He was a lobbyist for big business," Hayden said, referring to Talent's job after he left Congress last year.

Outstate, where fewer ads are airing, Talent and Carnahan are splitting the support. "He just seems as honest as one can be," said Mark Weaver, a retired broker from Kansas City who backs Talent.

Carnahan's improved poll standings last week coincided with an emphasis in both campaigns on issues that often favor Democrats: Social Security, prescription drugs and corporate accountability.

Zogby said the shift in campaign focus indicates that Carnahan has temporarily taken control of the contest's agenda.

What Talent has to do, the pollster continued, is shift the focus back to issues where Republicans do well - such as national security and the military.

Talent likely also will get outside help, much as Carnahan is seeing assistance from unions. In Talent's case, supportive groups like the National Rifle Association and some business organizations are expected to begin firing back with ads and fliers that praise him or blast Carnahan.

========

Two more polls are yet to come

Zogby International, based in Utica, N.Y., conducted the polls of Missouri and Illinois voters as part of a series of polls in 11 states. Two similar rounds of polling will be featured in the Post-Dispatch in coming weeks.

Most of the polls in other areas are being conducted in conjunction with local news outlets and are part of a national tracking poll for NBC's cable arm, MSNBC. The results are being released today on NBC's "Meet the Press."

U.S. SENATE RACE

97 posted on 09/23/2002 3:48:17 PM PDT by Timesink

To: Congressman Billybob; PhiKapMom; Ragtime Cowgirl; JulieRNR21; Joe Brower; davidosborne

You are right on. Future Senator Forrester was on Hannity's radio show this afternoon. He's my kind of candidate - direct, smart and oh, he's not a criminal either.

I was looking for a tracking thread today about the Thune race. Found something else instead.

It's amazing what a google search can yield. I think my prayer thread for Governor Bush is already working. Enuf said.

98 posted on 09/23/2002 3:51:04 PM PDT by floriduh voter

To: Blood of Tyrants; Just another Joe

99 posted on 09/23/2002 3:52:03 PM PDT by floriduh voter

Yeah, you go, Governor Bush! And, that's just what they published. With tons of people helpin' him, Jeb will win in a landslide when it's voting day.

And, if McBride tries the cheating stuff, he will be found out and his political future (he's already 57) will be over. Not everybody who gets into politics later in life is Ronald Reagan. There is only one Ronald Reagan.

100 posted on 09/23/2002 3:56:00 PM PDT by floriduh voter

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