[dennis1x]

catfish,

beyond 72 hours, strike probabilities are fairly meaningless.

in 3 days the storm will be somewhere between the east coast of mexico and the yucatan.

after that there are 3 most likely possibilities:

1. the strength and momentum of Isidore will prevent a turn toward the north and continue west into Mexico

2. an approaching front will be strong enough to curve the storm towards the north and east.

3. if the storm does begin a turn north/ne, but not until late then Texas could be at risk.

[catfish1957]

As I previously stated, if this storm continues to grow to category 4/5, fronts/troughs will have little bearing on this storm on a mesoclinic scale.

[jpsb]

I am going to go out on a limb here, but due to the rotation of the earth I would expect a WNW ->NW track given very weak steering cuurents. Am I wrong?