ALERT: Hurricane Isidore forecasted to have at least 150 MPH winds within 72 hours

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002

Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.

The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts

[Askel5]

So ... would your God punish the United States with massive terrorist destruction a fortnight after the President used Scripture to gild his decision re: the best utilitarian use of "Excess" human lives or does he just reserve his wrath for anyone who crosses Israel?

If you believe Bush is on the bubble at present for having failed to bless the State of Israel unconditionally, were the Irgun assassins and terrorist types good and faithful servants doing "God's work" in all righteousness "by any means necessary"?

[Askel5]

"People were found drowned in their attics after Hurricane Betsy, because places went from having no water to having 20 feet of water in 15 minutes," Krieger said

That's a sobering thought. I guess they're not so "slow-moving" once all hell breaks loose.

[realpatriot]

Hurricane season ends in November!

[2sheep]

There were only 3,000+ (we are told) lost in the WTC towers. More than 5,000 per week are murdered in abortion mills across the country. G~d keeps score. See Deut. 28:1-68.

[Askel5]

Guess I'll add toe tags to the hurricane kit. I still don't see how evacuation's a possibility for me.

[SamAdams76]

Technically, yes. But a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland this time of year is a rare event. Of course, we get northeasters up in this neck of the woods all winter long that approach a Cat 1 hurricane. There was a blizzard we got in February 1978 that was pretty much a hurricane with snow. 75-80 m.p.h. winds with nearly four feet of snow and drifts 10-15 feet high!

[kinghorse]

SamAdams76,

What, no sarcasm tag? Hurricane season peaks late August through late September. We are still in nearly the worst part of Hurrican season. Hurricanes that hit the US mainland according to month (1900 -2000):

42 in August
65 in September
25 in October

[Senator Pardek]

I still don't see how evacuation's a possibility for me.

How good is your Claudette Colbert impersonation?

[kinghorse]

Here's the best image I've found. This one is neatly packed.

[Askel5]

lol ... that's cute.

You think they'd still pick me up when the B came running from his hiding spot behind some shrubs?

[sinkspur]

Hmmm...a beeline for the ranch at Crawford. There really could be "no cattle" there soon. It is best to bless Israel, really it is. Pray for Bush to repent.

Blithering, 2sheep.

You're blithering.

[Askel5]

G~d keeps score.

You think the ratio of Excess to Implanted human lives bothers Him in the least?

[dennis1x]

SamAdams,

Either you are just trying to intentionally mislead people for whatever reason, or just very uneducated. Either way, put a sock in it. What you are babbling is completely untrue.

[Uncle Sham]

Hurricane Hilda hit us in October of 1964. It left behind more damage and deaths than Andrew in 1992. I still consider it the worst storm I've ever been through and certainly do not welcome a repeat performance. We don't breath easy around here until it's well into November.

[FreedomPoster]

combined with land subsidence and sea-level rise

I hate it when I'm reading something that seems like an informative article, and then there's a zinger like this. There is pretty much no documented sea-level rise. So now, I don't know whether the rest of the article is junk, or not.

[dennis1x]

Nice picture. The last 2 hours or so it appears on satellite to have reached its strongest point yet. The next aircraft recon will, i predict, show the lowest pressure thus far.

[catfish1957]

I do not claim ot be a meteorlogist, but have been watching huricanes as a hobby for many years. (Near SE Texas Gulf Coast). My experience has shown that once storms get to the Category 4 or 5 Level, Mesoclinic influences are not near as prevalent. (e.g. Gilbert, Hugo, Andrew, Camille) A serious trough by sway or turn this storm maybe 10- 30 degrees, but at this point I don't I see a right turn happening. (I hope)

[dennis1x]

This article is from LSU, a noted very low-tier educational source.

[SamAdams76]

Only one storm in the last 50 years has ever hit Texas after September 25th as a hurricane. So I know of what I speak. No panic-mongering is necessary here. Hurricane season is over, for all practical purposes.

[newsperson999]

Hi dennis,
latest SAT shot shows the storm really getting its act together..the eye is visible on the SAT..also pressure is back down to 946 after going up to 948 for an hour or so..looks like the mean motion is WNW about 4-5 MPH..outflow is great and its over 86 degree water..Will most likely be a CAT 4 by morning